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	<title>Comments on: The coming glut in oil – and its impact</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%E2%80%93-and-its-impact/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/</link>
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	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 May 2013 18:04:28 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: upstater</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8444</link>
		<dc:creator>upstater</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:27:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8444</guid>
		<description>One only needs to look at hydrofracking of natural gas to understand that &quot;tight oil&quot; or &quot;pre-salt oil&quot; might also be illusory.

Sure, it is possible to deploy new technologies to extract more fossil fuels.  Look at the dirty tar sands.  Almost anything is possible if you throw enough money (and energy) at it.

But the price of fracked gas is well below its production cost (John Dizard wrote about this at the FT many times before Chesapeake&#039;s crash-and-burn).  Same is probably true of fracked oil.

Fossil fuel nirvana doesn&#039;t exist; it is something peddled by corporations dedicated to maintaining business-as-usual -- socialized losses, privatized gains.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One only needs to look at hydrofracking of natural gas to understand that &#8220;tight oil&#8221; or &#8220;pre-salt oil&#8221; might also be illusory.</p>
<p>Sure, it is possible to deploy new technologies to extract more fossil fuels.  Look at the dirty tar sands.  Almost anything is possible if you throw enough money (and energy) at it.</p>
<p>But the price of fracked gas is well below its production cost (John Dizard wrote about this at the FT many times before Chesapeake&#8217;s crash-and-burn).  Same is probably true of fracked oil.</p>
<p>Fossil fuel nirvana doesn&#8217;t exist; it is something peddled by corporations dedicated to maintaining business-as-usual &#8212; socialized losses, privatized gains.</p>
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		<title>By: kpvidya1999</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8443</link>
		<dc:creator>kpvidya1999</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2012 09:04:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8443</guid>
		<description>Maybe I should go and buy the car that I had decided not to buy. Sounds unbelievable. But India and china need lots of fuel. So also vietnam, bangladesh, indonesia... And Irans belligerence will cool off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe I should go and buy the car that I had decided not to buy. Sounds unbelievable. But India and china need lots of fuel. So also vietnam, bangladesh, indonesia&#8230; And Irans belligerence will cool off.</p>
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		<title>By: ptiffany</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8442</link>
		<dc:creator>ptiffany</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 17:49:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8442</guid>
		<description>When quoting from articles by the American Petroleum Institute, it is common practice to note the source.  Maugeri is a well-known shill for that industry.

This information is so out-of-date.  For example, horizontal drilling has been common practice for half a century.

Also, the States have been blocking much domestic drilling because of &quot;frivolous&quot; concerns over the environment for decades.  As with fracking, is Congress going to override these concerns?

What about the hundreds of other fossil fuel experts who disagree with the optimist industry spokesman Maugeri?  What about all those estimates by all those experts both within and without the petroleum industry that proven oil reserves are declining?

What difference does it make that production goes up or down over a short period of a few years?  In a 24-hour newscycle, a few years is an eternity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When quoting from articles by the American Petroleum Institute, it is common practice to note the source.  Maugeri is a well-known shill for that industry.</p>
<p>This information is so out-of-date.  For example, horizontal drilling has been common practice for half a century.</p>
<p>Also, the States have been blocking much domestic drilling because of &#8220;frivolous&#8221; concerns over the environment for decades.  As with fracking, is Congress going to override these concerns?</p>
<p>What about the hundreds of other fossil fuel experts who disagree with the optimist industry spokesman Maugeri?  What about all those estimates by all those experts both within and without the petroleum industry that proven oil reserves are declining?</p>
<p>What difference does it make that production goes up or down over a short period of a few years?  In a 24-hour newscycle, a few years is an eternity.</p>
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		<title>By: MichaelHoexter</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8441</link>
		<dc:creator>MichaelHoexter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 15:42:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8441</guid>
		<description>This piece leaps to conclusions based on the optimistic projections of one current (not former) oil executive who has a financial stake in the continued use of fossil fuels for as long as possible.  Freeland, whom I had thought was a better (and more intelligent) journalist than this, takes the assertions of Maugeri, who has taken up residence at Harvard to, it seems, provide himself with a more &quot;respectable&quot; title than &quot;oil executive&quot;, and draws the conclusion that there will be an &quot;oil glut&quot; without engaging with critical voices within the petroleum geology field that strongly suggest otherwise.  There is no suggestion here that Freeland has an understanding of terms such as &quot;decline rate&quot; and &quot;energy return on energy invested&quot; with which she could interrogate the claims of Maugeri; she simply has taken his assertions at face value.  Euan Mearns has noted that Maugeri uses decline rate assumptions of 1-2% of existing fields when 4% is more likely.  

Ultimately Freeland is offering energy investors and the public who themselves invest in equipment that uses oil a misleading picture of the &quot;realism&quot; of using oil into the near future.  Besides climate concerns, it isn&#039;t &quot;realistic&quot; to project oil use into the future, especially if we believe in concepts like &quot;due diligence&quot; let alone journalistic research.  If this is typical of Freeland&#039;s level of engagement with her subject matter, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I&#039;d like to sell her!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This piece leaps to conclusions based on the optimistic projections of one current (not former) oil executive who has a financial stake in the continued use of fossil fuels for as long as possible.  Freeland, whom I had thought was a better (and more intelligent) journalist than this, takes the assertions of Maugeri, who has taken up residence at Harvard to, it seems, provide himself with a more &#8220;respectable&#8221; title than &#8220;oil executive&#8221;, and draws the conclusion that there will be an &#8220;oil glut&#8221; without engaging with critical voices within the petroleum geology field that strongly suggest otherwise.  There is no suggestion here that Freeland has an understanding of terms such as &#8220;decline rate&#8221; and &#8220;energy return on energy invested&#8221; with which she could interrogate the claims of Maugeri; she simply has taken his assertions at face value.  Euan Mearns has noted that Maugeri uses decline rate assumptions of 1-2% of existing fields when 4% is more likely.  </p>
<p>Ultimately Freeland is offering energy investors and the public who themselves invest in equipment that uses oil a misleading picture of the &#8220;realism&#8221; of using oil into the near future.  Besides climate concerns, it isn&#8217;t &#8220;realistic&#8221; to project oil use into the future, especially if we believe in concepts like &#8220;due diligence&#8221; let alone journalistic research.  If this is typical of Freeland&#8217;s level of engagement with her subject matter, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I&#8217;d like to sell her!</p>
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		<title>By: GCoughlan</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8440</link>
		<dc:creator>GCoughlan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 12:10:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8440</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s also worth reading the article in Rolling Stone magazine (by Bill McKibben) regarding climate change and the numbers involved. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

We may not have time to burn all of the existing known oil reserves, much less the promised excess. Pity this article reads like a fuel company press release, (berating the environmental lobby&#039;s concerns),  rather than taking a more balanced view.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s also worth reading the article in Rolling Stone magazine (by Bill McKibben) regarding climate change and the numbers involved. <a href='http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719'>http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/new s/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20 120719</a></p>
<p>We may not have time to burn all of the existing known oil reserves, much less the promised excess. Pity this article reads like a fuel company press release, (berating the environmental lobby&#8217;s concerns),  rather than taking a more balanced view.</p>
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		<title>By: mmercir</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8439</link>
		<dc:creator>mmercir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 11:31:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8439</guid>
		<description>If the earth is better off without us Vera...  do gia a favor and commit suicide.

Humans are as natural to this planet as is the pondscum the envirofreaks want to replace them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the earth is better off without us Vera&#8230;  do gia a favor and commit suicide.</p>
<p>Humans are as natural to this planet as is the pondscum the envirofreaks want to replace them.</p>
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		<title>By: OneOfTheSheep</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8438</link>
		<dc:creator>OneOfTheSheep</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 03:31:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8438</guid>
		<description>Oil isn&#039;t the &quot;big battle&quot; for the hearts and minds that will ultimately determine the &quot;future of human life on earth&quot;.  The REALLY BIG loss by the environmentalists is the radical religious right&#039;s navel-gazing fixation on eliminating &quot;family planning&quot; and meaningful access to birth control.  Once our message was &quot;The sperm stops here&quot;.

These people have systematically dismantled America&#039;s previous leadership to help &quot;third world countries&quot; reduce unnecessary, inappropriate and unsustainable &quot;traditional&quot; rates of human reproduction through education.  Do not Somalia, Haiti, and other failed &quot;states&quot; prove, again and again, year after year, that God does not &quot;provide&quot; (unless man&#039;s primary purpose is to turn our big blue marble into a big brown marble by covering every open space with human protoplasm)? 

At SEVEN BILLION and exploding, the lion&#039;s share of &quot;new earth citizens&quot; lack land, money, skills, education, clean water, basic sanitation, adequate food or ANY reasonable expectation of same.  Their &quot;future&quot; is not &quot;equal&quot; because all these multitudes of open mouths and empty stomachs offer their world is more urine and feces.

Their lives are preordained to be as life was for the majority of humans two hundred years ago and before...brutal,nasty and short.  They will experience primarily hunger, rejection, envy, hate, pushing and shoving to survive, and killing or being killed.

China recognized the problem and addressed it successfully with their &quot;one child&quot; policy.  India has not, and it&#039;s ongoing good faith efforts to raise the standard of living for it&#039;s people will continue to be overwhelmed by their birth rate.  

In America we seem well on the way to the day when fertile females must report to have the government harvest their eggs to protect them from any possibility of harm so that every one can be &quot;appropriately&quot; fertilized and brought to term by the most appropriate means.  Why?  

Isn&#039;t it obvious that the one way this planet can support SEVEN BILLION people is by adopting and enforcing a universal standard of living that, to any American, equates with permanent, hopeless poverty?  No thanks!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil isn&#8217;t the &#8220;big battle&#8221; for the hearts and minds that will ultimately determine the &#8220;future of human life on earth&#8221;.  The REALLY BIG loss by the environmentalists is the radical religious right&#8217;s navel-gazing fixation on eliminating &#8220;family planning&#8221; and meaningful access to birth control.  Once our message was &#8220;The sperm stops here&#8221;.</p>
<p>These people have systematically dismantled America&#8217;s previous leadership to help &#8220;third world countries&#8221; reduce unnecessary, inappropriate and unsustainable &#8220;traditional&#8221; rates of human reproduction through education.  Do not Somalia, Haiti, and other failed &#8220;states&#8221; prove, again and again, year after year, that God does not &#8220;provide&#8221; (unless man&#8217;s primary purpose is to turn our big blue marble into a big brown marble by covering every open space with human protoplasm)? </p>
<p>At SEVEN BILLION and exploding, the lion&#8217;s share of &#8220;new earth citizens&#8221; lack land, money, skills, education, clean water, basic sanitation, adequate food or ANY reasonable expectation of same.  Their &#8220;future&#8221; is not &#8220;equal&#8221; because all these multitudes of open mouths and empty stomachs offer their world is more urine and feces.</p>
<p>Their lives are preordained to be as life was for the majority of humans two hundred years ago and before&#8230;brutal,nasty and short.  They will experience primarily hunger, rejection, envy, hate, pushing and shoving to survive, and killing or being killed.</p>
<p>China recognized the problem and addressed it successfully with their &#8220;one child&#8221; policy.  India has not, and it&#8217;s ongoing good faith efforts to raise the standard of living for it&#8217;s people will continue to be overwhelmed by their birth rate.  </p>
<p>In America we seem well on the way to the day when fertile females must report to have the government harvest their eggs to protect them from any possibility of harm so that every one can be &#8220;appropriately&#8221; fertilized and brought to term by the most appropriate means.  Why?  </p>
<p>Isn&#8217;t it obvious that the one way this planet can support SEVEN BILLION people is by adopting and enforcing a universal standard of living that, to any American, equates with permanent, hopeless poverty?  No thanks!</p>
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		<title>By: brein</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8437</link>
		<dc:creator>brein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Aug 2012 12:12:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8437</guid>
		<description>If you look to non-partisan geologists for analysis (instead of Ph.D. economists like Mr. Maugeri, who is on sabbatical from Eni), you will find the results to be far less optimistic. Yes we discover all sorts of tertiary techniques to retrieve ever greater percentages of oil from old fields, and yes we discover ways to access resources trapped in rocks which we never thought would yield their riches to our desires, and yes there is lots of oil and gas in many severe (and unexplored) environments (deep water and polar continental shelves), but we all-too-often end up with situations like the Deep Water Horizon and the catastrophe on the Niger delta. We, in the &quot;first world&quot; have become ever-more adept at moving our &quot;mess-making&quot; into the third world, where lax regulations and abject poverty make our resource exploration and development temporarily, environmentally, invisible. Most non-partisan geologists will tell you that the resource potential in shale-basinal gas and oil deposits is, as of the best current analyses, not nearly of the magnitude the pro-development folks would have us believe. While methane is better than coal as a fossil fuel, from a short-sighted environmental standpoint, development of new long-term gas resources is far from certain, and methane still adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide IS a greenhouse gas, regardless of how one feels about anthropogenic global warming. It DOES trap heat in the atmosphere. How much of our warming Earth can be attributed to man-made sources may be debatable, however, if we continue to massively burn fossil fuels, we will, at some time, add enough carbon dioxide to the atmosphere to undeniably affect our atmosphere&#039;s heat-trapping ability. The time has come to begin to diverge from our old habits and look for new paths into our energy future. It is a very long path when one looks at the monstrous magnitude of our coal, oil, and gas consumption. As we begin to build infrastructure to utilize &quot;new&quot; basinal gas supplies, we may find ourselves with &quot;sticker-shock&quot; in a few years, if we find the supply comes nowhere near the new demand curve. And do we really, seriously, think that development of fossil fuel resources on the Siberian Shelf and in Africa will be completed without an &quot;invisible&quot; catastrophe? I doubt that the remnants and descendants of the Seven Sisters or national companies like Rosneft actually care, as long as we Pollyannas in the &quot;first world&quot; don&#039;t have to see it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you look to non-partisan geologists for analysis (instead of Ph.D. economists like Mr. Maugeri, who is on sabbatical from Eni), you will find the results to be far less optimistic. Yes we discover all sorts of tertiary techniques to retrieve ever greater percentages of oil from old fields, and yes we discover ways to access resources trapped in rocks which we never thought would yield their riches to our desires, and yes there is lots of oil and gas in many severe (and unexplored) environments (deep water and polar continental shelves), but we all-too-often end up with situations like the Deep Water Horizon and the catastrophe on the Niger delta. We, in the &#8220;first world&#8221; have become ever-more adept at moving our &#8220;mess-making&#8221; into the third world, where lax regulations and abject poverty make our resource exploration and development temporarily, environmentally, invisible. Most non-partisan geologists will tell you that the resource potential in shale-basinal gas and oil deposits is, as of the best current analyses, not nearly of the magnitude the pro-development folks would have us believe. While methane is better than coal as a fossil fuel, from a short-sighted environmental standpoint, development of new long-term gas resources is far from certain, and methane still adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide IS a greenhouse gas, regardless of how one feels about anthropogenic global warming. It DOES trap heat in the atmosphere. How much of our warming Earth can be attributed to man-made sources may be debatable, however, if we continue to massively burn fossil fuels, we will, at some time, add enough carbon dioxide to the atmosphere to undeniably affect our atmosphere&#8217;s heat-trapping ability. The time has come to begin to diverge from our old habits and look for new paths into our energy future. It is a very long path when one looks at the monstrous magnitude of our coal, oil, and gas consumption. As we begin to build infrastructure to utilize &#8220;new&#8221; basinal gas supplies, we may find ourselves with &#8220;sticker-shock&#8221; in a few years, if we find the supply comes nowhere near the new demand curve. And do we really, seriously, think that development of fossil fuel resources on the Siberian Shelf and in Africa will be completed without an &#8220;invisible&#8221; catastrophe? I doubt that the remnants and descendants of the Seven Sisters or national companies like Rosneft actually care, as long as we Pollyannas in the &#8220;first world&#8221; don&#8217;t have to see it.</p>
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		<title>By: UauS</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8436</link>
		<dc:creator>UauS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Aug 2012 05:37:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8436</guid>
		<description>do a web search on &quot;smog in shanghai&quot;

Got oil?...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>do a web search on &#8220;smog in shanghai&#8221;</p>
<p>Got oil?&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: murrayg</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/08/09/the-coming-glut-in-oil-%e2%80%93-and-its-impact/comment-page-1/#comment-8433</link>
		<dc:creator>murrayg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Aug 2012 05:18:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=1737#comment-8433</guid>
		<description>Why is this kind of spin/hype, not backed up by one peer-reviewed fact or figure, on Reuters?

Where did the &#039;truth&#039; go?

The writer could start with an examination of the expected EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested)from the lauded sources. Note: that&#039;s on energy invested, not dollars invested. Below a certain EROEI, you don&#039;t maintain BAU. As we are witnessing.

One can understand the panic, and the need for such hype-pieces, but we&#039;d be better addressing reality.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why is this kind of spin/hype, not backed up by one peer-reviewed fact or figure, on Reuters?</p>
<p>Where did the &#8216;truth&#8217; go?</p>
<p>The writer could start with an examination of the expected EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested)from the lauded sources. Note: that&#8217;s on energy invested, not dollars invested. Below a certain EROEI, you don&#8217;t maintain BAU. As we are witnessing.</p>
<p>One can understand the panic, and the need for such hype-pieces, but we&#8217;d be better addressing reality.</p>
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