Reuters Columnists

Christopher Swann

October 27th, 2009

The discreet charm of Canadian bonds

In a world awash with government bonds, the Canadian variety is still as rare as black pearls. During 11 years of budget surpluses, the Canadians were in the unusual position of subtracting rather than adding to this supply.

Now the nation’s recent descent into deficits offers a good opportunity for international investors to stock up on these gems. For years, foreigners have remained relatively immune to the allure of Canadian bonds. Royal Bank of Canada estimates that outsiders own not much more than 15 percent of marketable bonds — against some 60 percent in New Zealand and a third for Britain.

Canada’s 10-year issue offers the same yield as its U.S. counterpart. But Canada’s bonds should be far more attractive than those of the colossus to its south.

Unlike the United States, Canada has not been forced to resort to unorthodox monetary policy. It is therefore at less risk of an inflationary accident over coming years than America, where huge volumes of liquidity will have to be mopped up.

This year’s 15 percent appreciation of the Canadian dollar — though painful to exporters — will clamp down firmly on prices. Further rises in the Loonie remain a distinct possibility as global commodity prices continue to recover, and will offer an additional kicker to foreign investors.

Canadian bonds should continue to benefit from their scarcity value. After a decade of government thrift, the nation’s debt still looks trivial by international standards. The federal debt to GDP ratio is set to rise to only 32 percent from around 29 percent — less than half the Group of Seven average.

The government’s claim that it can return to budget surpluses by 2013 is more plausible than promises of fiscal rectitude from other nations.

Over the past decade, those U.S. investors who bet on Canadian bonds yielded annualized returns of over 10 percent, including currency gains. This left the returns from U.S. bonds trailing in the dust, and also outpaced investments in New Zealand and Australia.

Another decade of outperformance looks like a sound bet.

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