Reuters Columnists

Agnes Crane

November 4th, 2009

Fed sits back and relaxes

The Federal Reserve had it easy.

Few in the market expected Fed policy makers to make meaningful changes to policy or its statement on Wednesday, and they didn’t disappoint.

They will continue to keep rates low for an “extended period” and a weak jobs market and tenuous economic recovery mean that it will be a long while before they start leaning toward higher rates.

That doesn’t mean Bernanke isn’t going to get flak from the worrywarts fixated on the dangers of keeping rates too low for too long, but the Fed is in a sweet spot of keeping policy on a steady course as the economy improves, however incrementally.

Central bankers in Europe who meet on Thursday aren’t so lucky.

The Bank of England is still fighting the good fight when it comes to smacking the British economy out of its stupor. Unlike the United States, which enjoyed a nice pick-me-up in the third quarter, the UK hasn’t been able to snap its losing streak.

Moreover, its big banks are still mired in the post-crisis bog. This should push policy makers to earmark more funds to buy bonds as part of its quantitative easing assault. ING expects the BoE to add another 50 billion pounds to the 175 billion pounds it’s already spent hoovering up commercial paper, corporate bonds and gilts.

Glimmers of hope in employment and manufacturing data, though, mean it won’t be an easy decision and the vote is sure to be split, unlike the Fed’s united front today.

The European Central Bank also has it tough. Like the Fed, it’s likely to stand pat on rates, but it has the euro to worry about. The euro has been on fire since March, gaining 18 percent against the dollar.

The weak dollar is hardly something to brag about, but it does carry an important silver lining: it makes goods and services much cheaper abroad.

The United States can at least hope for an export-led recovery. This makes the ECB’s own exit strategy more complicated and hostage to what happens on this side of the Atlantic.

So Fed officials should enjoy the calm while it lasts, and catch up on their sleep.

One comment so far

Asleep at the wheel ! Nothing’s changed !

- Posted by Mr Kiosk

Post Your Comment

*
To prove you're a person (not a spam script), type the security word shown in the picture. Click on the picture to hear an audio file of the word.
Click to hear an audio file of the anti-spam word

House Rules:
  • We moderate all comments and will publish everything that advances the post directly or with relevant tangential
  • We try not to publish comments that we think are offensive or appear to pass you off as another person, and we will be conservative if comments may be considered libelous.information.