Reuters Columnists

Agnes Crane

November 10th, 2009

Seeing bubbles as nothing but trouble

With friends like Frederic Mishkin, the Federal Reserve doesn’t need enemies.

The former Fed governor who co-wrote a book with Ben Bernanke on inflation-targeting has argued in the Financial Times that some financial bubbles aren’t so bad.

As long as they’re not fueled with leverage, the economy can stand a bubble or two, so there’s no need for central bankers to get trigger-happy and start raising rates from the zero-bound levels where they’ve been for nearly a year. Or so he argued.

This is a line that current policymakers should be adamant about not crossing. Keeping rates low is one thing, telling investors some bubbles aren’t so bad is quite another. It not only ignores policy missteps in the last downturn, but it threatens to take speculative risk-taking up another notch.

It’s especially the wrong message to send financial markets that are already giddy.

Lehman Brothers and AIG will soon become a distant memory for most investors, even though the fiscal and monetary policies put in place to save the financial markets from crashing are still in place. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument. Keeping interest rates low will surely inflate asset prices beyond their “fair value” as money seeks out higher returns. This isn’t ideal, but Bernanke is clearly willing to run the risk to make sure the economy gets back on track.Yet no one should be under any illusions about the dangers of such policy. Mishkin points to past busts like the one following the dot-com boom to illustrate his point that bubbles without leverage don’t pose the same dangers as credit-based ones to the economy.

The dot-com aftermath rattled policymakers enough, however, for the Fed to drop interest rates to 1 percent while willfully ignoring signs that such policy contributed to an unprecedented credit binge. This is why regulators need to be especially tough with their charges if they want to keep wielding extraordinarily easy policy.

Keeping big bank leverage ratios low could go far to cap future excesses. Moving quickly to establish a private sector, rather than a taxpayer, safety net — there’s been talk about contingent capital — would be another way to counter the industry’s tendency to be led astray by the promise of easy money.

Just don’t try to play down the trouble with bubbles.

3 comments so far

[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]

- Posted by Interest Rates » Reuters Columns » Blog Archive » Seeing bubbles as nothing but …

the americans are the biggest terrorist in the world, they represent a threat for the humanity peace.

- Posted by Clader Hill

Ironically, I wrote my Michigan Senators and President yesterday withdrawing my support for the current Treasury and Fed Policy that is pumping the markets and debasing the USD. They are on the same course that the failed Bush adminstration took with Greenspan with interest reates…pump, pump, pump the markets for their Wall Street pals…. cut, cut, cut the dollar.

- Posted by Matt Miller

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