Turning point in jobs?

August 7, 2009

Sure they’re still cutting jobs, by nonfarm payrolls are shrinking at slower pace, down only 247K in July, and the unemployment rate actually fell to 9.4% from 9.5%. With other data showing a tentative turning point in housing and manufacturing moving toward expansion, this is starting to feel like the real deal.

Sure July is only one month, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting. The 10-year benchmark is down nearly a point to yield 3.88%, bringing the big 4.0% threshold back into focus. Question now will be whether investors start fearing a rise in yields will quash the economic growth.

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[...] few bloggers have taken a stab at trying to explain this. How can unemployment be falling when we are still [...]

[...] same direction? It might be an error in one of the two pretty fuzzy datasets, or it could be, as Agnes says this morning, a real turning point. That’s certainly what the bond market seems to [...]