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14:09 August 17th, 2009

Don’t be fooled by global stock stumble

Posted by: Agnes Crane
Tags: Commentaries, , , , , ,

Don’t blame global stock markets for being skittish. It is August, after all, a month that has spelled trouble in the past two years.

Recall that, a year ago, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac started wobbling at the precipice while AIG, desperate for cash, began paying junk-like yields in the corporate bond market. A month later, all hell broke loose.

In August 2007, a shutdown in short-term lending markets forced global policy makers to rush in with a flood of liquidity to keep the lifeblood of the financial system from clotting.

So it’s only natural that, this year, sellers are trigger-happy at the slightest whiff of trouble.

Problems surfaced in the United States last week, when a double-whammy of soft retail sales followed by a drop in consumer sentiment reignited worries that for all the good cheer about an emerging recovery, the exhausted American shopper is still unfit to carry the economy.

These concerns carried over into Monday trading in Asia, where they mingled with homegrown worries. In China, a drop-off in direct foreign investment helped fuel a nearly 6 percent decline in the Shanghai stock index and concerns about the Japanese economy helped trim more than 3 percent from the Nikkei.

U.S. stock indices have followed suit, with the S&P 500 off 2.43 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 2 percent.

Monday was an ugly day, but investors should try to rein in their anxiety about what it means for such big-picture questions as what shape the economic recovery will take. That’s because a battle between bulls and bears, which typically emerges at economic turning points, has taken hold of financial markets — meaning today’s worries about the global economy are likely to morph into tomorrow’s worries about too much stimulus creating dangerous asset bubbles.

It’s a constant tension and one that will continue to push and pull financial markets for some time to come.

“The markets have very selectively reacted to economic data,” says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS. Little more than a week ago, for example, the S&P 500 hit a 10-month high after the U.S. reported “only” 247,000 workers were dropped from payrolls in July.

Given the big run up in risky assets like stocks and corporate debt since March, and last week’s data, it’s not surprising that investors are now worried that the rosier outlooks failed to take into account the growing fixation of the U.S. consumer on savings.

Take price-earnings ratios. Bespoke Investment Group noted last week that the P/E ratio of companies in the S&P 500 climbed to its highest peak since 2004, as earnings failed to keep pace with the optimism that fueled a 50 percent jump in the S&P 500 stock index since March. For earnings to catch up, the consumer will have to shake off worries about high unemployment rates and pitch in with good old-fashioned shopping. So far, that’s looking like a stretch.

So, chalk up the stock declines to correcting what had become overbought conditions and get ready for more choppiness ahead.

This is the messy reality of turning points, not necessarily the foreshadowing of something truly ugly to come. Even if it is August.

27 comments so far

Problems surfaced in the United States last week, when a double-whammy of soft retail sales followed by a drop in consumer sentiment reignited worries that for all the good cheer about an emerging recovery, the exhausted American shopper is still unfit to carry the economy.
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The rally was going too strong for that to have affected it without a coordinated media blitz saying it might do so. Curiously enough that market manipulation was right before options expiration week.

- Posted by Bob F.

I don’t think the problem is sellers being “trigger-happy at the slightest sign of trouble” this year. The problem is the absence of investors and the presence of a plethora of people –undoubtedly including all those laid-off investment bankers– acting like day-traders. Meanwhile the SEC acts like tweaking a few rules will make the market fit for actual investors to use.

Even what should be “corrections” don’t amount to that, since the day-traders drive the prices back up (and then back down a little) within a few days or a week. By saying “day-traders” I mean to include the professional high frequency traders. There is no longer any pretense on Wall Street of a fundamentals-based rationale for trade, although some of the business oriented media play along with that game and try to attribute swings to this or that “reason.”

Stocks that used to have low volatility now have betas above 1. Stocks that used to have betas hovering above 1 now have them at 2-something. The term itself –indeed, the term “volatile stock”– has lost meaning. Anything is fair game for shorting, for options play or for arcane involvement in hedging one absurd position with another equally absurd one. And everything is subject to high frequency trading that makes a mockery of an individual’s considered offer to buy or sell.

Whoever believes any of the proposed “reasons” for market behavior of late really should stay out of the market. It’s the big casino, baby. Period. The only difference is that no one can be entirely sure who owns the place, but it’s still true that you can’t beat the house in the long run. What you can bank on is that this time around it won’t be the investment banks holding the hot potatoes, since there are no longer any institutions worthy of that name. Why anyone would trust the investment advisory functions of an entity that also trades for its own account (using high-end computers and HFT algorithms) is beyond my comprehension in these apparently post-ethical times.

The stat worth keeping an eye on is the number of bank failures. It’s rising, but at a rate that’s so far still slow enough not to bother the proverbial frog in the cookpot. That frog is us, the ordinary investor. We’re more than halfway to cooked and don’t know it yet.

- Posted by Liz R

I love how the thing that all the economists and fatcat usurers want is for the “average” consumer they screw over on a daily basis, to start spending more of our money on useless crap to prop up production.

- Posted by moose

As an 80-year-old I have strong memories of the Great Depression. That makes the current economic problems seem like little more than a minor pimple on Dame Fortune’s nose. As FDR put it: We have nothing to fear except fear itself.

- Posted by Schmendric

yeah, free cars and houses for everyone. america is number one! Obama will destroy the bears, HOPE at last!

- Posted by dvictr

Thanks agnes..I like your commitment towards green shoots. However I do believe that something ‘truly ugly’ will come about before oct( latest).

At that time this article could be used to show how wrong MSM is :-)

- Posted by d&b

If you consider Bespoke Investment Group’s P/E calculations you should also take a deeper look at how they calculate that P/E in the first place. They have a P/E of about 10 around March 2009, when it never reached there. Please check your sources before citing them.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/156216-s -p-500-p-e-ratio-nearly-doubles#comment- 631716

- Posted by John

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