Comments on: That didn’t take long… http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/09/01/that-didnt-take-long/ Now raising intellectual capital Fri, 24 May 2013 17:21:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: ARJTurgot http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/09/01/that-didnt-take-long/comment-page-1/#comment-3365 ARJTurgot Wed, 02 Sep 2009 13:47:09 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/?p=3332#comment-3365 I'm a fundamentalist with behavioralist sympathies so parts of your post seem a bit odd. "but the fickle trading, especially in the stock market this summer, has made it difficult to read too much into the daily moves." hmmm... could have something to do with the Brownian motion character of stock prices in general but especially over shorter time spans. This market, however, does not seem odd. Forward P/Es were up, heading towards a level that given the general state of the economy weren't sustainable. They are now down a bit, but not to the point of widespread bargain hunting. I sold some that moved to far to fast, I'm holding some that will improve nicely with a better general economy next year. Air travel prices and apartment rents are down, however. Tuscany perhaps... I’m a fundamentalist with behavioralist sympathies so parts of your post seem a bit odd.

“but the fickle trading, especially in the stock market this summer, has made it difficult to read too much into the daily moves.”

hmmm… could have something to do with the Brownian motion character of stock prices in general but especially over shorter time spans.

This market, however, does not seem odd. Forward P/Es were up, heading towards a level that given the general state of the economy weren’t sustainable. They are now down a bit, but not to the point of widespread bargain hunting. I sold some that moved to far to fast, I’m holding some that will improve nicely with a better general economy next year. Air travel prices and apartment rents are down, however. Tuscany perhaps…

]]> By: Casper http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/09/01/that-didnt-take-long/comment-page-1/#comment-3357 Casper Wed, 02 Sep 2009 07:43:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/?p=3332#comment-3357 Good one Agnes, it just proves the point that the markets are driven, amongst others, by sentiment and not logic. If only one could adjust portfolio structures by the minute, but alas, transaction costs makes that too expensive. I still maintain that stock strike prices based on free cash flow multiples would give a clear indication of what to sell and buy over the next 12 months. I certainly don't feel THAT insecure about my portfolio that I will accept 1 %, even when facing a 'v', 'w' and possibly and 'eta' collapse in the stock markets. Surely some stocks are going to make it ? Surely options can now assist with arbitrated hedging ? Good one Agnes, it just proves the point that the markets are driven, amongst others, by sentiment and not logic. If only one could adjust portfolio structures by the minute, but alas, transaction costs makes that too expensive. I still maintain that stock strike prices based on free cash flow multiples would give a clear indication of what to sell and buy over the next 12 months. I certainly don’t feel THAT insecure about my portfolio that I will accept 1 %, even when facing a ‘v’, ‘w’ and possibly and ‘eta’ collapse in the stock markets. Surely some stocks are going to make it ? Surely options can now assist with arbitrated hedging ?

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