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from Rolfe Winkler:

Commercial vs. Residential prices, June update

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The Moody's/REAL commercial real estate index for June was released today. Down just 1% compared to May, it suggests the pace of decline is moderating. The index was squarely in freefall the prior two months, declining 9% from March to April and 8% from April to May.

According to the index, prices are now down 35.5% from the Oct '07 peak.

Case-Shiller data for June won't be released till next Tuesday. But in May, the Composite 20 index actually rose slightly ... for the first time since July 2006.

But don't expect a V-shaped recovery for home prices (or for CRE prices for that matter).  While residential prices appear to have stabilized during the seasonally strong summer selling season, it's likely they'll turn back down later this year.

Even if prices stabilize around current levels, that would still imply large future losses for banks. They're counting on prices to rebound sharply in order to avoid massive losses in their loan books.

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