Commentaries

from Rolfe Winkler:

Defining the “extended period”

November 13, 2009

Another tidbit from Rosenberg, who offers guidance on what the Fed means when it says it will keep rates low for an "extended period"...

from Rolfe Winkler:

Rosenberg: Unemployment headed to 12-13%….

November 11, 2009

...but that doesn't mean the overall employment picture will get a lot worse.

From today's "Breakfast with Dave" e-mail:

There are serious structural issues undermining the U.S. labour market as companies continue to adjust their order books, production schedules and staffing requirements to a semi-permanently impaired credit backdrop. The bottom line is that the level of credit per unit of GDP is going to be much, much lower in the future than has been the case in the last two decades. While we may be getting close to a bottom in terms of employment, the jobless rate is very likely going to be climbing much further in the future due to the secular dynamics within the labour market.

from Rolfe Winkler:

Rosenberg: “Welcome to the era of consumer frugality”

August 10, 2009

Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg on last week's consumer credit figures.

U.S. consumer credit outstanding fell $10 billion in June, the fifth decline in a row during which the debt balance has shrunk $60 billion or 5.5% at an annual rate.  Both figures are unprecedented.  As the chart below shows, the YoY trend, at -2.8%, is also running at its steepest contractionary rate in over five decades.  Welcome to the new paradigm of savings, asset liquidation and debt repayment [in] the era of consumer frugality. After 20 years of living beyond their means, American consumers will be spending the next several years living below their means, and no, this will not be the end of the world, but it will put a firm ceiling on overall demand growth for some time to come.