Commentaries

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Are Lloyds shares cheap? Not as cheap as this funny money

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Shares in Lloyds Banking Group are worth 150 pence apiece, according to the analysts from Royal Bank of Scotland, who think the shares offer “a compelling restructuring opportunity” around today’s 95 pence.

Lloyds, say the brokers, is going to recover sufficiently to pay a nominal dividend next year, and something quite substantial in 2011, thanks to margin expansion, cost control and normalising bad debts.

Well, maybe. Over in the distressed debt market, they are a lot less sure. Mind you, they are not very sure of anything, and anomalies abound. Brokers Collins Stewart, who have specialised in the backwaters of preference shares and PIBs, have one this very day. They are offering the snappily-titled HBOS Capital Funding 9.54 percent fixed-to-floating perpetual preferred securities at 65 pence.

The buyer gets a 14.68 percent return until 2018, when he either gets 100 pence, or the coupon is reset at Libor plus 6.75 percent, a rate deliberately designed to be punitive for the borrower, which is of course, HBOS’ parent, Lloyds.

California’s IOUs may be difficult to cash in

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With the California controller getting ready to send out the first batch of IOUs on Thursday, banks in the state are still trying to figure out if they want to buy the warrants from depositors. If they decide not to, get ready for crunch time and most likely the emergence of some kind of distressed debt market that will scoop up the IOUs – at a price – from those desperate for cash.

Just because the IOUs are sent to a specific person, business or local government doesn’t mean that they can’t be traded in or simply just traded. Whoever ends up holding them by their maturity date can redeem them with the state. And there’s certainly enough IOUs coming down the pipeline to make for a nice liquid market.

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