Commentaries

SPD debacle shows agony of European centre-left

It was a black night for Germany’s Social Democrats. Their catastrophic general election score of just 23 percent was by far the worst since the creation of the Federal Republic in 1949. It was more than 11 points worse than their result in 2005, and nearly 6 points worse than their poorest post-war showing in 1953.(Picture shows party activists at SPD headquarters watching first exit polls on television)

Their shattering defeat was the latest in a series of debacles for the European centre-left since the onset of the financial crisis. Just when the social democratic outlook of a strong state to regulate and curb the excesses of the markets and protect workers from the rough edges of capitalism has made a comeback around the developed world, its original proponents are in disarray.

Why? Partly because the centre-left is blamed by its own voters for having embraced deregulation and globalisation without taking care of the losers of such policies. Partly because it lacks charismatic leaders of the calibre of Helmut Schmidt, Francois Mitterrand, Tony Blair or Barack Obama. And partly because new social and economic forces — the services sector and the knowledge economy — and new ideas — ecology and communitarianism — have moved the political goalposts.

France’s Socialist party has been consigned to opposition since 2002 and is deeply divided over personalities, policy and ideology. The British Labour Party, after a record 12 years in power, is deeply unpopular and looks doomed to lose a general election next year. The Italian left has not managed to mount a serious challenge to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, despite scandals over the billionaire media tycoon’s sex life.

As in France, the SPD bled votes to the radical Left party, to the Greens, to the conservatives and to abstention. An estimated 2 million Social Democratic sympathisers stayed home. As many switched to the Left — a mixture of former East German communists and disenchanted former Social Democrats demanding red-blooded socialism and an exit from NATO and the European Union.

The SPD took the blame for unpopular curbs on unemployment benefits under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, as well as raising the retirement age to 67 from 65 under the grand coalition with conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel. An election-day opinion poll showed 67 percent of SPD sympathisers believed the party had betrayed its principles on these issues.

The party now has a chance to regenerate itself in opposition. But it will share the hard benches with the more outspoken Left party, which scored a record 12.5 percent on Sunday, and the environmentalist Greens, who draw a lot of young and educated voters. The SPD’s electorate is shrinking or dying out — pensioners, trade unionists, manufacturing and public sector workers. Whichever way the party goes in opposition, it stands to lose as many voters as it wins back.

Japan takes a kinder approach to growth

The victorious Democratic Party of Japan did not put economic growth at the heart of its electoral sales pitch. The party’s manifesto mentions “growth” only once. The word “support”, by contrast, appears 19 times.

Even so, there are reasons for optimism that the DPJ’s softer and more nurturing policies are just what the economy needs. (more…)

An update on Bijan Khajehpour

A couple of weeks ago, I drew attention to the arrest of  respected business consultant Bijan Khajehpour as an example of the situation of hundreds of Iranians detained after the disputed presidential election on June 12. At the time, Bijan’s whereabouts, state of health and conditions, as well as any charges against him, were unknown.

We now know that Bijan is being held at Tehran’s Evin prison, where most political prisoners are detained. He was one of the defendants at the second mass trial of people accused of plotting a “velvet coup” to overthrow the regime. The second one-day trial focused on people with contacts with Western countries. Bijan’s company advises many European corporations on doing business in Iran. His client list is a who’s who of international energy, engineering and automotive companies. The German Foreign Minister has called publicly for his release.

Bijan is apparently in good health and receiving his diabetics medicines, but his glasses were taken away from him when he was imprisoned, and he is almost blind without them. He has thusbeen deprived of his sight as well as his freedom for the last seven weeks. He has grown a beard and lost weight. His home was raided while his family was out of the country. His office was searched in his presence the day after his arrest. Security authorities removed computers and files.

Bijan was photographed by the semi-official Fars news agency in court (centre in the picture). He was on the B-list of the trial that included French researcher Clotilde Reiss and British embassy local staffer Hossein Rassam.

His family have not been notified of the charges against him and Iranian news agencies did not report them. He was not allowed access to a lawyer, and none of the defendants was represented by legal counsel in court. Most of the accused were charged with espionage, harming national security or transmitting information on the post-election unrest to foreigners. Bijan had a chance encounter with a lawyer outside the courtroom and told him he denied the charges against him in court. His statement was not reported by the Iranian news agencies, which have only reported selected “confessions”.

Since my first post, I have received several messages from business contacts, diplomats, officials of international organisations and NGO members involved with Iran saying what a wonderful person Bijan is. Many underlined his patriotism, his dedication to developing the Iranian economy and to attracting talented young Iranians from inside and outside the country to invest and set up companies there, and his sustained efforts to promoting business education in his homeland.