Commentaries

Will GM pick a German to run GM Europe?

It looks as though General Motors will soon be looking for a new executive to run GM Europe, which includes its troubled Opel unit.

The U.S. carmaker needs someone with credibility within Germany as well as within the car industry if it replaces GM Europe head Carl-Peter Forster.

There are a few German industry heavyweights about who could do the job.

How about former Continental CEO Manfred Wennemer, who knows a lot about tyres and auto parts? Or Porsche’s former boss and golden-boy Wendelin Wiedeking? Or Daimler’s Wolfgang Bernhardt, who recently took over running the Mercedes-Benz van unit?

All have the right credentials, although Wiederking may have too much baggage (and too much money after his pay-off from Porsche to want to do the job).

Bernhardt would be a good bet, but what would GM have to offer him to lure him away from his vans?

Lower Opel costs to help government aid

General Motors’ decision to scrap the sale of Opel rests on the carmaker’s calculation that the hole in its European unit’s finances is not as deep as previously feared.

Governments should welcome the lower demands on taxpayers with open arms. But there is still some horse trading to be done to get everyone on board. 

GM’s chief executive Fritz Henderson is due to present his plans for Opel next week. He has good reason to be bullish.

GM’s previous forecast that Opel needs $3.3 billion to keep going until 2011 appears to have been sharply revised. Some in the industry think the amount required could be nearer 60 percent of that figure — some $2 billion.

Like other carmakers, European scrappage schemes and improved economic conditions have allowed Opel to significantly reduce its inventory. Cars that were sitting on the tarmac have been sold, putting much-needed cash back into the carmakers’ coffers.

Moreover, GM itself is doing better than originally expected in the United States since emerging from bankruptcy in July. This has given it the confidence not only to scrap the sale of Opel to a consortium led by Magna, the Canadian auto parts maker, but also to repay the remaining 900 million euros on a  bridge loan from the German government.

Earlier concerns about GM using U.S. taxpayer funds to prop up its units overseas seem to have eased. Henderson is now confident he can dip into GM’s U.S. pocket to shore up Opel.

from Rolfe Winkler:

Sheila throws GMAC a bone

GMAC sold more FDIC-backed debt today... (Reuters)

General Motors Acceptance Corp on Wednesday sold $2.9 billion in three-year government-guaranteed notes, according to a market source familiar with the sale. The 1.75 percent notes were priced at 99.991 to yield 1.753 percent, or 31.6 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries.

The notes are guaranteed under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp's temporary liquidity guarantee program.

GMAC has permission to sell up to $7.4 billion of FDIC-backed debt, in addition to the $12.5 billion of TARP money already received and the $2.8-$5.6 billion of additional TARP cash they're negotiating for.

In exchange for upping GMAC's TLGP allowance, Sheila Bair supposedly extracted concessions on the interest rates GMAC will be able to advertise for deposits.

On BankRate, they're still listed as #3 for 1-yr CDs.

While we're on the subject of auto bailouts, John Stoll and Sharon Terlep of WSJ are reporting that GM dipped into its bailout fund from Treasury to help rescue supplier Delphi:

General Motors Co. by the end of the week will outline plans to draw down more U.S. government money it will use to aid Delphi Automotive LLP and also give an update on a closely watched escrow account of its bailout funds, according to several people familiar with the matter.

GM's additional borrowing will mostly be limited to Delphi's funding needs and is expected to be north of $2.5 billion, based on prior announcements.

Commercial real estate death watch – Capmark

What do you get when you put a U.S. automaker, a leveraged buyout and commercial real estate together – a soon-to-be bankrupt company. Caroline Humer of Reuters reports that that Capmark – formerly the commercial real estate business of GM financing arm GMAC – is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, with the final blow coming possibly by the end of next week?

The company, which owns a bank that will continue to operate while it is in court, is in negotiations with lenders, bondholders and the Federal Deposit Insurance Company that will result in a filing by the end of October at the latest, the source said.

They are working on details of a debt-for-equity swap that will take place to bring the company back out of bankruptcy, he said. It is not certain how long the court process could take.

Those that swooped in and bought the unit in March of 2006 in an LBO may be out of luck if the company files for bankruptcy.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co KKR.UL, Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N) and Five Mile Capital, which bought Capmark in March 2006 for $1.5 billion in cash plus more than $7 billion in debt at the peak of the housing market, will not receive payment through the bankruptcy.

The source said the company will belong to its creditor group, which is made up of more than 50 banks and more than 50 hedge funds among others. The lead banks are Citigroup’s (C.N) Citibank and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N).

There’s also a Warren Buffett angle to this tale. Reuters said Capmark has will sell the company’s loan servicing and mortgage business to Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia National for $490 million in what would be a 363 bankruptcy when good assets are separated from the bad and then spun out into a stronger standalone.

It’s not surprising that a commercial real estate financing company is in trouble given the woes in the sector. Property prices are down between 35%-40%,  a good chunk of borrowers are underwater and new financing is almost non-existent. The government’s TALF program has done little so far to jump start the CMBS market, with just a measly $400 million deal from Developers Diversified the only beacon of hope so far.

Germany will have to change Opel deal after election

It looks increasingly clear that Germany will have to change its deal to aid carmaker Opel once Sunday’s general election is out of the way.

The European Commission has signaled to Berlin that promising 4.5 billion euros in loan guarantees to only one of the two bidders for General Motors’ European arm to preserve all four German production sites and most Opel jobs in Germany may breach EU rules on state aid to industry. EU regulators want to know why Chancellor Angela Merkel and four German states offered the money to back car parts maker Magna’s bid but not for financial investor RHJ International’s, and on what conditions. 

With Britain, Spain and Belgium’s Flanders region — all hosts to Opel production sites – crying foul, the EU executive is under strong political pressure to intervene. British Business Secretary Peter Mandelson has questioned the viability of Magna’s business plan in a letter to the Commission.  Brussels reaffirmed in a statement on Wednesday that Germany could not attach political conditions to the company’s restructuring plan or tie its hands. 

The European Commission will not accept that State aid granted under the Temporary Framework is conditional upon the implementation of a specific business plan, previously discussed and/or negotiated with Member States, which defines the geographic distribution of restructuring measures, without leaving to the beneficiary undertakings the possibility to revise their plans if necessary.

State funding under the Temporary Framework is meant to tackle the financing problems due to the credit crunch, and cannot be used to impose political constraints concerning the location of production activities within the internal market. The beneficiary undertakings must therefore retain full freedom to develop their economic activities in the internal market.

Even the Commission’s German vice-president, Guenter Verheugen, long regarded as the German car industry’s best friend, has told his countrymen that one EU country cannot be allowed to buy a favourable solution for its workers at the expense of another. He has offered the Commission’s help to bring all the Opel host countries together and work out a joint state aid plan for Opel to be monitored by Brussels.

In theory, that means Berlin ought to sign Magna and its Russian partner Sberbank a blank cheque which might lead to a plant in Antwerp or Luton or Zaragoza being kept open instead of an assembly line in Bochum, if the Belgian, British or Spanish site is more efficient. That would be hard for German taxpayers to swallow.

China picks European cars off scrapheap

Chinese carmakers are seeking to step into the gaps left by U.S. companies in Europe — but while acquisitions may give them access to badly-needed technical know-how, global brands and exposure to new markets, the question is whether they have learnt from past failures.

With China now the world’s largest car market, it’s no surprise that Chinese carmakers — which have few if any really solid brands within their home market — want to start making more of a mark.

In theory, foreign acquisitions offer a quick way to do so. Meanwhile the credit crunch has thrown world-renowned but now distressed car marques such as Volvo, Opel or Saab onto the block at what look like rock-bottom prices.

The worry is that Chinese carmakers haven’t always found it plain sailing abroad. SAIC Motor Corp is still feeling the pain of buying into Ssangyong Motor Co of Korea. Ssangyong has struggled to compete as South Korea’s smallest carmaker, failing to develop new models and running out of cash. A debt-for-equity swap threatens to slash the Chinese company’s holding in the South Korean carmaker from just over 50 percent to around 10.

Chinese companies have had more success when they have simply acquired technology and taken it back to China. SAIC had much more success when it bought Britain’s MG Rover. In that case, SAIC closed most of the UK manufacturing and used the know-how to launch a mid-range sedan called the Roewe. This has proved successful in China.

It looks as if Chinese manufacturers are trying to emulate SAIC’s Rover experiment rather than its Ssangyong adventure.

Although Chinese carmakers looked at Opel, they backed away from trying to buy it outright. Geely Automotive has now stepped forward as a possible partner for Opel’s new owner, Canadian car company Magna. But it looks as if its role may be more as that of a supplier of manufacturing capacity than an outright owner of the brand.

Can Magna keep its model juggling act with Opel?

Cries from Volkswagen about pulling its business from Magna if the Canadian car parts maker ended up owning a stake in GM’s former European unit Opel ring somewhat hollow given the success Magna has had in juggling its customers’ different needs so far.

Even so, Magna is trying hard to keep its customers — which also include Toyota, Ford and BMW — happy by vowing to ringfence Opel from the rest of its business now it has won the long battle to buy GM’s former European unit.

Sure, these carmakers will want watertight assurances over the supplier’s tie-up with one of their competitors. But they can’t have it all ways if they want to continue to outsource their parts — and even the construction of whole cars — to keep their costs down.

Given the tortuous journey to agreeing a buyer for Opel, Magna’s customers have had plenty of time to work out what guarantees they will want, although it is only now that a deal has been done that they will get to hear the full details of the arrangements between GM, Opel, Magna and its co-investor, Russia’s Sberbank. Magna will have to show them it can treat its own car manufacturer like any other client.

Magna’s Steyr unit already produces the BMW X3, the Mercedes-Benz G-Class, the Chrysler 300C and both the Jeep Commander and Grand Cherokee for three different customers. So it is in a fairly strong position in any discussions — after all the major carmakers are heavily reliant on their parts manufacturers and switching supplier is not an easy option by any means.

But it remains to be seen for how long Magna retains a clear separation between its traditional parts business and its new car making operation Opel. It may find the move up the value chain to its liking.

Not the final word in GM’s Magnum Opel

So German Chancellor Angela Merkel has got her way. After months of pressure from the German government, General Motors has finally caved in and agreed to sell a majority stake in Opel to Canadian car parts maker Magna and Russian backer Sberbank.

It isn’t all over yet — GM is still attaching conditions to the sale of a 55 percent stake in “new” Opel — but the timing of the announcement and the apparently good news for Opel’s 25,000 German employees will be music to Merkel’s ears with just over two weeks to go before a Sept 27. general election.

Merkel says she doesn’t think the GM board’s decision is a delaying tactic, which says a lot about the way the talks have been conducted. But while GM and its chief negotiator John Smith have led Berlin and the various bidders a merry dance, the reality is that the once great U.S. car giant doesn’t really have much of a negotiating position: Opel needs 3.3 billion euros in loan guarantees to keep going. Only Germany is willing to come up with that kind of money.

So for now at least, GM has little choice but to keep Berlin and Opel’s unions happy by opting for Magna rather than Belgium-based financial buyer RHJ International’s bid.

But the fact that GM has not revealed any substantive details about the deal with Magna shows that all is not yet settled. The carmaker says several “key issues” will be finalised over the next few weeks.

Among these are bound to be GM’s deep-seated misgivings about the sanctity of its intellectual property rights under the Magna/Sberbank offer and the nitty-gritty of job cuts.

GM says it has the support of Opel’s unions for a restructuring and now expects a definitive agreement to be signed within a few weeks, with a deal closed in months.

Saab and Volvo – made in China?

At this rate it might not be long before Sweden’s once mighty Volvo and Saab car marques come with “Made in China” stamped on the chassis.

After failing in the auction of Opel, Beijing Automotive Industry Holding (BAIC) is set to take a minority stake in supercar maker Koenigsegg, which is bidding to take over all of GM’s Saab. Meanwhile, Geely Automotive’s parent company Geely Holding Group Co plans to bid for Ford’s Volvo.

Chinese carmakers have had mixed fortunes in their attempts to buy overseas brands. SAIC Motor Corp snapped up 51 percent of Korea’s Ssangyong Motor Co in 2004 but made a hash of running an overseas operation and was later forced to write down the investment.

SAIC had more success with the acquisition of the historic British MG Rover. In the case of Rover,  SAIC simply boxed up the machinery, stripped the plants and took all the technology back to China where it produces the cars of the same design far more cheaply. But in MG’s case, the sportscar continues to roll off the assembly line at the UK’s Longbridge plant.

Technological asset stripping rather than a commitment to build cars in Sweden is what some there fear will be in store for Volvo and Saab should the Chinese firms succeed with their bids. But analysts point out that in the case of Saab, the technology is owned by GM

Stockholm is doing all it can to avoid giving either of its iconic carmakers state financing. If it ends up giving any loan guarantees, it will also want to look very closely at the fine print to make sure it does not sign away its carmaking heritage and the jobs which go with it.

Saab to Koenigsegg – another go slow GM sale

General Motors doesn’t do deals in a hurry — at least when it is selling.

With the Opel sale grinding along, the U.S. automaker is also in the process of offloading its Saab brand to luxury sportscar maker Koenigsegg.

Financing is the major sticking point in the Saab sale process. Koenigsegg — backed by U.S. and Norwegian investors — reached a deal in June to buy Saab from GM but the process then stalled.

Now Koenigsegg — which boasts having developed the world’s fastest sportscar — has apparently sent the Swedish government a new plan for financing the Saab purchase. This we’re told no longer includes any extra loan from the government on top of funding guarantees from the European Investment Bank (EIB).  There were reports that Koenigsegg Chairman Augie Fabela thought he needed an additional 3 billion Swedish crowns of financing.

GM has always said it expects to close the deal by the end of the year. Given progress so far and the complications of agreeing autos deals with governments, it looks as though the automaker will have it right.