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from Rolfe Winkler:
Morning Links 1-27
Note: Apologies for no links yesterday. Busy day writing columns!
SEC to vote on new money fund rules (Johnson, WSJ) Unfortunately, the SEC won't do away with $1 NAVs, price fluctuations will be published on a 60 day lag. So investors will continue to treat money funds as cash equivalents, even though they aren't, and the systemic risk they pose won't really go away.
Fed weighs interest on reserves as new benchmark (Lanman, Bloomberg) This will be a key interest rate to watch whether or not the Fed makes it the benchmark. The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet over the past year+ has stuffed banks full of excess reserves, reserves that banks will lend out if the economy -- and loan demand -- picks up. The Fed needs to keep those excess reserves sequestered in order to prevent inflation. To do so, it may have to pay higher rates. For a fuller explanation see this previous column.
Failed Senate vote on budget commission shows difficulty in cutting deficits (Faler, Bloomberg) So much for a fiscal commission based on the base-closing commission...
After three months, only 35 subscriptions to Newsday's website (Koblin, NY Observer) Print subscribers get free online access. But this is still not a good showing for selling online only subscriptions. The NYT needn't worry that it's pick up will be this small when they put up their pay wall. I, for one, will pay for their content, as I pay for WSJ. I 'd subscribe to FT too if their website wasn't so slow...
from Rolfe Winkler:
Evening links 12-14
Substantial bank losses needed to fix housing (Bloomberg) To avoid foreclosures, principal has to be written down. That implies hefty losses, especially for banks that hold lots of home equity loans on their balance sheet. Such loans get wiped out before first mortgages lose a penny. Complicating matters, many big banks service both the first and the second mortgage, which means they are highly conflicted. They don't want to eat a loss on the second mortgage, even if writing it down would make the first perform much better...
Greece defies Europe as crisis grows deadly serious (Evans Pritchard, Telegraph) Provocative idea: To relieve its debt burden, Ambrose says Greece should devalue its currency. That's not easy since they use the Euro. He recommends Greece ditch the Euro, "restore its currency, devalue, pass a law switching internal euro debt into drachmas, and "restructure" foreign contracts. This is the 'kitchen-sink' option. Such action would allow Greece to break out of its death loop." Call it the nuclear option... (ht Implode-o-Meter)
from Rolfe Winkler:
Lunchtime Links 12-11
Jamie gets a deal! (Bloomberg) Prof. Linus Wilson had been estimated that warrants the government got as part of its TARP bailout for JP Morgan were worth $11-$37. They ended up selling for $10.75. The lower price is most likely because these are not common securities, are illiquid, and therefore worth less than we all thought. Can't really complain. The market spoke. Dimon looks smart for refusing to negotiate bilaterally with Treasury to repurchase them. Treasury was driving too hard a bargain. IIn retrospect, that means the deals on TARP warrants for the likes of AmEx and Goldman ended up going off much better for taxpayers. But Hank Paulson still did far worse negotiating with banks for emergency capital than Warren Buffett. Shame.
Ginnie Mae's growth puts taxpayers on the hook (Grow/Goldfarb, WaPo...via Patrick) Ginnie packages FHA mortgages into mortgage-backed securities. It's the next Fannie/Freddie....
from Rolfe Winkler:
Lunchtime Links 12-8
(Reader note: still working on the bugs....please click "continue reading" to see all the links)
Banks, U.S. spar over TARP repayment (David Enrich) This is the kind of thing that gives me a better feeling about Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke. They are hammering banks to raise equity capital to get out of TARP. They have leverage and are using it productively, forcing bank shareholders to eat losses via dilution so that balance sheets are more stable. Great! Stick to your guns guys!
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