Now raising intellectual capital
Donald Kohn, the Fed’s number 2, has a lot to say about the economic outlook but not a whole lot new in terms of when the central bank will reverse course on its extraordinary easy monetary policy. Full speech at the National Association for Business Economics in St. Louis can be found here.
Some choice bits:
I don’t think a V-shaped recovery is the most likely outcome this time around.
I’m not sure the stock market and credit markets agree, but they might come around to his way of thinking eventually.
The demand for U.S. exports has been increasing lately after falling sharply in the first half of the year. However, with the firming of domestic demand, imports have also begun to increase, and, on net, the external sector appears to be a roughly neutral influence on overall economic activity at present.