More than 70 crop scouts began making their way home from Austin, Minnesota, on Friday after a week of 10-hour-long workdays counting and measuring corn and soybean yield potential through seven top production states around the U.S. Midwest.
    Based on the week’s findings in 2,100 fields and other data, tour leaders Pro Farmer newsletter released their 2008 corn and soybean production forecast early on Friday.
    They projected U.S. corn production at 12.152 billion bushels with the average yield at 153.3 bushels per acre. Soybean production was pegged at 2.930 billion bushels with an average yield of 39.95 bushels per acre.
    The corn estimate was below the U.S. Agriculture Department’s latest projection for 12.288 billion bushels and the soy production was under USDA’s 2.973 billion bushels forecast. USDA estimated the average corn yield at 155 bushels per acre and the soy yield at 40.5 bushels per acre as of August 1.
    But much has changed in the Midwest over the past three weeks. What some referred to as near-ideal crop weather earlier in the growing season was no longer the case.
    As the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour’s two legs departed on Monday from Columbus, Ohio, and and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, crop scouts were already aware that variability and crop immaturity would be a big part of the story of this year’s corn and soybean crops. Scouts on the eastern leg quickly realized that dryness would be another major theme after finding gaping cracks in concrete-hard soils in most Ohio fields. The word was passed on to western scouts who were touring a surprisingly robust South Dakota corn crop and some of them remained sceptical until they saw for themselves as their routes moved east.
    Crop scouts will always welcome cool, dry weather during the crop tour, but it was difficult not to feel compassion for farmers that had not received any rain at all since July. Meanwhile, crop development in some fields was as much three weeks behind the normal pace, setting the stage for some nail-biting in the weeks ahead of the average first frost dates, which range from late September to mid-October depending on location.
    Tour organisers, farmers, and agronomists repeatedly stressed at evening meetings that most fields need rain immediately or else the yield estimates pulled from fields this week would begin eroding.
    Signs of a soggy start to the growing season were all there too, from washed out plots and replanted acres to swathes of pale green leaves on corn plants, a sign shallow root systems and nitrogen loss. Tops of fields that would normally look flat and uniform were discoloured and filled with potholes. Soybeans were planted in washed out patches of corn fields in wavy rows.
    All eyes now turn to the weather map. Soybeans need moisture to finish setting and filling pods. Corn needs just enough rain in the near term to add weight to undersized kernels, but not too much rain as that could slow down the crop’s already delayed development. And both crops will be racing for a photo finish in some areas, trying to get to the grain bin ahead of the first frost.

Farmers around the U.S. Midwest hope that this year’s growing season will stretch out a few days longer than usual into the fall to make up for the slow start to the growing season. Corn and soybean crops around the U.S. Midwest are depending on a warm and rainy finish to the growing season to reach the full potential predicted by crop scouts on the Pro Farmer Midwest Tour.

To try and forecast the date of the critical first frost, which could devastate thousands of acres of crops that were planted late due to cold and wet conditions in the spring, farmers are looking to the sky. Or to be more specific, they are looking at the moon.

Farmers, most of whom employ technology such as GPS systems on their harvesters and utilize seeds that were genetically modified to grow insect and disease resistant crops, are depending on old wives tales and consulting their almanacs to forecast when freezing temperatures would arrive in their areas.

The discussion by farmers about the importance getting past the full moon in mid-September was paramount at many dinners during the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour. Some farmers think that if the frost, which could inflict harsh damage on crops that were developing behind schedule due to planting delays in the spring, does not hit during the mid-September full moon, the crops will be safe until the next full moon arrives.

Other farmers in areas such as Nebraska were checking out  signs such as the call of the locust and evening fog that they believe tip off the date of the first frost.

The bottom line is that there is no failsafe method to forecast the date of the first frost. But that does not stop farmers from trying.

Crop scouts were busy in western Iowa on Wednesday trying to unlock the secrets of the upcoming soybean and corn harvest but they were ignoring another popular crop – wind.

Windmills are becoming increasingly common around the Corn Belt due to environmental concerns about traditional sources of power generation.

The wind harvest was taking up an unprecedented amount of acres this year in an area that some veteran scouts were referring to as this year’s garden spot of the Midwest in terms of potential corn and soybean yields.

In southern Minnesota, some growers were mulling offers from a wind farm company that had plans to erect windmills in that area. Some growers were being offered up to $5,000 a year to allow a windmill to be placed on their property, according to a farmer from that area who was taking part on the tour.

But the windmills can cause some problems, a farmer in west central Iowa told crop scouts. Dozens of windmills could be seen turning as the farmer told of some issues that might make farmers hesitate before collecting what appears to be easy money by renting out their acres to wind farms.

Maintenance workers need access to the windmills, so that can mean ploughing under more acres so a path can be built from the road to the windmill. Additionally, farmers have a harder time steering their machinery through fields if windmills sit right in the middle of prime crop producing territory. This can be particularly troublesome during years when poor conditions leave famers with only a short period of time to plant or harvest crops.

But still, the promise of cashing in on the green movement has a strong appeal to farmers, who like the promise of a steady annual payment.

The western Iowa scouts drove past a plant where windmill parts were waiting to be assembled in area fields. There were piles and piles of blades on the ground, suggesting that many area farmers were eager to take advantage of this new cash crop.

    Crop scouts touring corn and soybean fields around the eastern Midwest this week have seen more than their fair share of the bizarre thanks to an abundance of moisture at planting and early in the growing season that forced some growers to cast off conventional farming practices and get creative.
    In eastern Illinois, heavy June rains on top of saturated soils drowned out freshly planted corn in some areas, sometimes more than once.
    The solution to fill those gaps in their valuable farmland? Plant soybeans, which can be seeded later in the season than corn.
    However, harvesting grain from those mish-mosh fields could be challenging. Farmers will have to turn on their GPS steering systems and navigate their combines around islands of corn that were lucky enough to survive the early season washout.
    Even veteran crop scouts that claim to have seen it all were baffled by the sight of one field in Edgar County, Illinois. After pooling water drowned out parts of a corn field, the farmer replanted the areas with soybeans. But some of the corn along the edges of the waterlogged patch survived and emerged along with the soybeans, leaving several overlapping rows with nearly mature grain-yielding corn and soybeans.
    USDA claims to have accounted for washed out acres in their harvested acres estimates, but those uneven swathes of corn and soybeans may still cause headaches for Pro Farmer crop experts on Thursday night when they will gather at the tour’s conclusion to come up with their yield forecast for both crops.

    Photo: Crop scouts Roger Bernard and Doug Miller of Iowa and Ramiro Pereda of Argentina inspect soybeans planted in a corn field that was partially flooded this spring in Edgar County, Illinois.

Sharp edges on the leaves of corn plants, an unseen hole by the side of a field waiting for a car, a barbed wire fence protecting soybeans. All of these are hazards faced by crop scouts every year, not to mention the possibility of losing a boot in a muddy corn row.

But the biggest threat to scouts comes from farmers. Specifically, farmers who are infuriated by people trampling through their fields and damaging their crops. Stories abound about farmers making physical threats to scouts they discover in their fields.

Most farmers are placated after finding out who the crop scouts are and what they are doing. Leaders on the Pro Farmer tour carry a supply of baseball caps with them to offer farmers in a bid to smooth any ruffled feathers.

But one scout says he once offered a farmer a nickel for the three ears of corn pulled from a field after listening to a grower’s non-stop rant about how much money he had invested in the crop and how much harm the scouts were causing to the corn.

The problem stems from the fact that crop scouts do not ask permission to inspect the fields, a practice based on the idea that it is easier to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission.

To be sure, the majority of farmers met along the tour routes are incredibly polite and curious about any insights scouts might have about his crops and conditions in the area. Most farmers are aware that the tour is swinging through their area due to the media coverage and are happy to answer any questions tour scouts have about how the growing season is going.

This can lead to another problem, given a farmers’ propensity to turn short stories into long ones.

On Monday, scouts in northern Nebraska ran into the wife of a farmer who was startled to see three muddy scouts emerge from her corn fields and began yelling at them. After learning what the scouts were doing, the woman launched into a long monologue about how wet conditions delayed planting for weeks and how she had to tow her husband’s tractor out of the mud multiple times during the spring. She apologized for yelling but repeatedly said that she never knows what kinds of people might be snooping around her fields.

The conversation, while extremely friendly, caused the scouts to skip the survey of another field in the same county because they were now faced with the threat of missing dinner.

All work and no play makes crop scouts very dull.  

To break up the routine of tramping through fields, counting soybean pods and calculating corn yields, crop scouts try to soak up some of the sights, sounds and smells of the attractions around the nation’s Corn Belt. After all, there’s nothing like a summer road trip.

Scouts on one of the routes on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour took a detour early Monday morning to check out the world famous Corn Palace, an events center in Mitchell, South Dakota. The exterior of the Corn Palace features murals made from corn, a tradition started by 19^th century settlers to prove the fertility of the South Dakota soil.  This year’s theme, “Everyday Heroes” was illustrated by pictures of people such as firefighters and teachers displayed on the front of the building.

But the sides of the Palace are bare. This year’s tribute to everyday heroes already has been taken down. The outlines of next year’s murals are waiting for the upcoming corn harvest to fill in the blanks of what appears to be scenes of the National Mall in Washington D.C., the St. Louis Arch, and the Crazy Horse Memorial in the Black Hills of South Dakota.  

Scouts also got a history lesson on the town of Grand View, South Dakota. The town, which won the vote for county seat of Douglas County in 1882, no longer exists. Artifacts from the town site were excavated in 1961, according to a roadside marker surrounded by grain fields. There was no mention about what happened to the towns that lost the 1882 election for county seat.

    The old adage “rain makes grain” could use a revision this year… at least in Ohio. It should read “properly timed rain, distributed uniformly throughout the growing season, makes grain.”
    An abundance of moisture this past spring stalled planting by several days to several weeks. Conditions later improved and crop development pushed ahead in Ohio, but then it turned very dry in early July.
    Signs of this year’s challenging weather are evident throughtout the state.
    Corn cobs are undersized and kernels are smaller than desired. Agronomists on the tour think abundant moisture this spring did not challenge corn plants to set deep roots and now that conditions are drier, the moisture they need is out of reach.
    Soybean plants could be waist-high in one spot of a field and barely reaching the knee just a few paces away. Areas drowned out by excessive moisture this spring are now dusty and dry, with cracks so wide you could twist an ankle.
    “If this area is not considered to be under drought, it should be,” said Mark Bernard, a crop consultant with the eastern leg of the tour.
    According to the latest U.S. Agriculture Department’s drought monitor map, the region is not even considered abnormally dry, although more recent USDA data has shown a steep decline in soil moisture ratings.
    As of Sunday, Ohio topsoil moisture was rated 65 percent short to very short, compared with 43 percent a week earlier.
    The area’s soybeans, which are currently setting and filling pods, could benefit from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay which is approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. Corn could also use some moisture to boost grain size, but some corn plants are already shutting down.
    Forecasters say the precipitation could arrive in Ohio by this weekend.

    The annual Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour kicks off bright and early on Monday morning, giving participants a sneak peek at this year’s U.S. corn and soybean crops, valuable information that has the potential to send the futures market on another roller coaster ride this week.
    Severe flooding wreaked havoc on the newly seeded crops early in the summer, sending prices for both commodities to record levels.
    Good growing weather throughout July and August allowed the plants to recover nicely during the past six weeks and have left much of the crop looking very good from the roads. But farmers and agronomists insist that conditions are worse in the middle of the fields.
    The crop tour provides a perfect opportunity for those who want to see for themselves how the developing corn and soybean plants look. Scouts get down and dirty inspecting fields around the U.S. Midwest, counting soybean pods and ears of corn to estimate yields while taking note of any insect of disease issues.
    The tour means early mornings and long days for the scouts, something that farmers are accustomed but the schedule can be jarring for some of tour’s participants, including commodities traders, journalists and USDA officials. Bug spray, sun block and boots are a must for participants, quite a change from standard cubicle attire.
    Rain, a boon for the crops, can be the scourge of crop scouts as they scramble through the fields to get samples. Crop scouts also face challenges ranging from tricky navigation on country roads to the possibility of an angry farmer who does not want scouts trampling through his fields.
    The tour consists of an eastern leg and a western leg. The two groups will converge in southern Minnesota on Thursday afternoon. Final yield projections for both soybeans and corn will be presented on Friday. 

It's become a truism that Americans are driving less due to high fuel prices. Here are five signs that signal a decline in demand:

1. Drop in volume: The fall in U.S. oil demand in the first half of 2008 was the biggest in 26 years, according to the EIA.

2. Less time on the road: Americans are spending less time behind the wheel, according to the Dept. of Transportation

3. Taking the train : A record number of riders are turning to mass transit to get around

4. Fewer buying gas : Retail gas sales have dropped below year-ago levels

5. Safer roads : Fewer drivers mean fewer road accidents, according to Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company of Geico, one of the largest U.S. auto insurers.

Is the writing on the wall? Share your signs of dropping oil demand.

For full coverage of the oil market, click here.

The government came through with good news for world grain users, food aid buyers and food inflation watchers on Tuesday, forecasting bumper crops of wheat, corn and soybeans and easing the fears of many who thought a cold rainy spring and worst U.S. Corn Belt floods in 15 years during June would spell heavy crop losses.
    There was only one problem: the markets don’t believe it. After a day and a half, Chicago Board of Trade corn prices are up 8 percent, soybeans up 7 percent and wheat up 5 percent.
    The bounce in the markets, which has come despite a stronger dollar (bearish for export demand), has been a reflection of doubts among long-time crop watchers about USDA’s assumptions for yields and weather.
    Analysts had been forecasting a rise in corn production from USDA’s July report for weeks given the greenhouse-like conditions ideal for Midwest corn since early July.
    What they did not expect was the magnitude of the USDA’s optimism. USDA boosted its corn yield forecast to 155 bushels per acre, up a whooping 6.6 bushels from its July forecast.
    And that was after a special USDA phone re-survey of thousands of flooded out areas hit in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota and other corn states in June.
    The aggressiveness of USDA’s yield boost stunned even the most veteran CBOT grain traders given the immaturity of the crop and unpredictability of Mother Nature.
    Both corn and soybeans are more vulnerable to an early frost since their development is running one to three weeks behind normal after a wet spring followed by flooding in June. The biggest threat is a freeze in September, weeks before many crops mature and a normal October frost in the upper Midwest.
    And given the tendency toward cool Midwest weather this summer an early freeze of plants - and yields - is seen more likely than other recent years. 
    The National Weather Service will issue its September forecast for temperatures on Aug. 21.
    Even U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer told Reuters in an exclusive interview on Tuesday following the report: “We look at the crop reports today and they’re good. But you also note that they are good assumed on normal weather patterns. If we start getting some early winter, early frost — things could change.”
    But so far so good. Corn conditions have improved for the past several weeks, benefiting from the cool, moist summer.
    Soybeans have a different story as USDA cut its forecast of that crop 27 million bushels to 2.973 million — reflecting a 2.6 percent drop in expected yields to 40.5 bushels per acre.
    However, all CBOT traders and analysts know that the bean crop is “made” in August, not July, so it is premature to get too excited about that number, analysts warned.
    “There’s the potential for the crop to come up substantially from the USDA number. But that’s going to be a function of weather over the next couple months,” said Mario Balletto, Citigroup grain analyst.
    Bottom line: the world is counting on the United States to produce a bountiful crop this year. World inflation is rising, driven by historically high energy and food prices.
    The weeks ahead promise more price volatility but many economists believe we’re in a new era of higher food and energy prices. Even with the pullback in prices before USDA’s report, corn and soybean futures are well above double their historical price ranges.
    USDA’s Tuesday increases in the outlook for corn demand for ethanol and soyoil demand for biodiesel did nothing to ease concerns that biofuels will remain an unwelcome competitor for food processors and livestock feeders in the years ahead, putting a floor under prices on pullbacks.

PHOTO: Corn fields pollinating 20 miles south of Toledo, Ohio, on August 9. Taken by Peter Bohan.