It can take years for organisations to get organised, if indeed they ever do. The oil producers’ club OPEC was founded in 1960, but only became a force to be reckoned with in the 1970s when the Arab oil embargo cut off supplies to the world’s biggest energy consumer the United States and oil prices rocketed.
The much less high profile Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum, which dates back to 2001, is still struggling to get its statutes in order.
Since last December it has had a charter. It has also commissioned reports and held irregular meetings.
The latest gathering took place this week in the sandy and very hot Qatari capital and agreed little. Notably, it failed to decide on one stand-out item on the modest agenda: who should be the group’s secretary general?
So far the only country to have submitted a candidate is Iran.
In the gas exporters’ club, Iran is the second biggest reserve holder after Russia, but on occasions has reneged on its export commitments, so it’s perhaps understandable the GECF decided to extend the application period.
Candidates now have until October to submit their C.V.s and the GECF should agree a secretary general at its next ministerial meeting, which takes place in December — in theory. Before this week’s session, the GECF had last meet last December after repeated rescheduling.

The stage is set for plenty of fireworks in the coming week for U.S. grain markets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release two key reports on Tuesday morning. One will reveal how many soybeans are still in U.S. storage bins as of June 1. The second will report how much corn, soybeans and spring wheat farmers planted this season after an unusually wet spring in the eastern Midwest, a bellwether for world grain exports each year.

“The one that has the potential for immediate fireworks going into the Fourth of July is the soybean stocks,” said Don Roose, an analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Typically, stocks levels at this time of the season do not garner such huge attention. USDA’s acreage numbers released on June 30 tend to steal the show, since so much guesswork has been done for months on when, where and what farmers plant.

But this year’s outlook for U.S. soy stocks on hand to hit a 32-year low before the September harvest amid strong Chinese soybean demand is keeping the heat on soybean figures.

“Any time you get into a tight-balance-sheet years there is plenty of uncertainty in the quarterly stocks numbers for beans. That could be the biggest unknown or uncertainty going into this report: the bean stocks,” said Randy Mittelstaedt, an analyst with Chicago brokerage R.J. O’Brien.

Analysts are estimating that USDA will report June 1 U.S. soybean stocks at 559 million to 620 million bushels — down from a year ago when June 1 stocks were 676 million bushels.

But the acreage numbers could also spark some excitement given the unusual planting season across the heartland. Heavy rains pounded the southeastern Midwest, where some 6 million acres intended for soybean were yet to be planted last week with fields too wet to seed. Late planting — which also hurt corn seeding — puts yield losses in greater play.

USDA in March said total intended plantings forecast for major U.S. row crops — corn, soy, wheat, cotton — were down about 4 million acres from 2008. Higher prices since then has  some private analysts expecting bigger plantings on Tuesday.

“Is it an outlook-altering report? That’s the question,” said Dan Cekander, a grains analyst with Newedge USA, LLC.

The road trip, an American summer tradition, is falling victim to the recession as more Americans decide to stay home over the Fourth of July weekend, according to AAA.

The Independence day weekend is usually the busiest travel weekend of the summer driving season, but this year, the number of Americans travelling this year will drop 1.9 percent, mostly due to high prices at the pump and economic worries.

That means this year the number of people taking a Fourth of July Day trip will be the fewest since 2000:

The drop in travel isn’t nearly as severe as last year, when July 4 travel sank 10.5 percent as drivers steered away from $4 a gallon gasoline, but the recent rise in gasoline prices– about 9 percent from memorial day through June 12– are likely taking their toll on American consumers, AAA said.

Are you planning to travel over the Fourth of July weekend?

After an interview this week for Reuters Investment Summit,  Brian Fabbri, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas said he did not think gains in base metal prices over the last 3 months accurately reflect how weak fundamentals are, especially in the economies of major users U.S., Europe and Japan, adding that industrial metals prices would need to correct lower.

Asked whether growth in emerging economies would be enough to compensate for slowing in the U.S., he said: “No.”

Fabbri pointed out that emerging economies accounted for only about 25 percent of global growth and would not be sufficient to take up the slack in the sagging U.S. economy.

“Contrary to some people’s thinking at the start of the recession who thought there would be a decoupling of the U.S. from other economies like China that has not been the case,” the economist said.

So while infrastructure spending in countries like China might lift metals demand, its growth pace will be limited without the support of robust industrial and economic output in developed countries.

Furthermore, while China, India and Brazil may continue to grow during the current global recession, he noted that not all emerging markets are alike, citing faltering economies in Eastern Europe and parts of South America as examples.

The U.S. government’s estimate last week for U.S. soybean stocks to reach a 32-year low by September will continue to dominate action in U.S. grain markets in the coming week — and perhaps all summer.
   
USDA forecast the supply of U.S. soybeans by Aug. 31 to reach 110 million bushels, less than a two-week supply for domestic processors who make vast amounts of soymeal for animal feed and soyoil for food and biofuels. Chicago Board of Trade soybean prices shot to nine-month highs on Thursday after the estimate before pulling back in volatile trading on Friday as speculators cashed profits for the weekend.
   
But the biggest question on the minds of traders remains in place: Will the United States, the world’s single largest grower and exporter of soybeans, run out of beans this summer?    
“The answer to that rests on how many more soybeans China sources from the U.S.,” said Rich Feltes, senior vice president at MF Global Research. “Are they going to defer old crop to new crop, whether or not they have cancellations?” 
   
China, the world’s largest soy importer, has been buying soybeans at a record pace this season to meet both its domestic crushing needs and build its state reserves. According to the latest customs figures issued just last week, China’s soy imports in the first five months of the year rose 27 percent from a year ago to 17.38 million tonnes, with most of those sourced from the United States.
    
More than half of U.S. soy exports are headed to China this season. In fact, U.S. soy exports are now just shy of USDA’s full-season projection with 2-1/2 months left to go before harvest. China’s competition is squeezing U.S. processors so much some may have to shut down at a time of soaring meal and oil prices, having run out of beans. Unless, of course, China eases its red-hot import pace. 
    
Traders said that may be happening. USDA’s weekly export report on Thursday reported China canceled a purchase of 55,000 tonnes of soybeans for this season. “Unknown destinations,” a category that traders often assume is China, also canceled 73,500 tonnes — while booking 226,500 tonnes for delivery in the new season starting Sept. 1.
   
“This is exactly what has to happen,” said Roy Huckabay, an analyst at The Linn Group in Chicago. “You have to do something to stretch the remaining supplies. We can’t run out.” 
   
SOYMEAL PRICES DRIVING THE CRUSH 
The last thing processors want right now is to run out. 
Hugely profitable crush margins — near $1 a bushel in central Illinois last week, versus 84 cents a year ago — have processors Cargill, ADM and Bunge churning out meal and oil. 
   
Soymeal prices have risen above $400 a ton for the first time since July 2008. If the 2003/04 marketing season is any indication, traders could be in for wild ride this summer as the poker game between domestic processors and Chinese importers plays out. In 2004, U.S. soybean stocks slipped to 112 million bushels after a short crop in 2003. 
   
In 2009, the tug of war for beans is widening the July/Nov. soybean spread — with July rising to $1.94 a bushel last week over November, its largest in this marketing year. So more volatility is expected during the coming week and through July 14 when CBOT July soybeans go off the board. 
   
“As we get closer and closer to July delivery and fewer people in that spread, it has the potential to go really ballistic,” one cash-connected CBOT trader said.

PHOTO: Newly emerged corn in north central Illinois.

With the summer driving season, under way, American drivers are once again feeling the impact of higher gasoline prices on their wallets. Read the full story here. Martin Hogarty, a chauffeur from the Bronx, interviewed near a gasoline station on 46th St. and 10th Avenue near Times Square in Manhattan this week, said he’s paying double what he used to pay for gasoline to fill up the car he uses for his chauffeuring business, a GMC Yukon sports utility vehicle. Gasoline prices at the station stood at $2.77 a gallon.

For those who’ve decided to invest in more fuel efficient cars, however, the choice is now paying off. Jose Ferro, a cab driver who was also filling up at the 46th St. station began leasing a hybrid taxi about eight weeks ago said the higher leasing fee is already paying off as gasoline prices climb higher.

Ferro, 72, a retired television commercial producer, who has been driving a cab for about three years said he used to fork out $38-$45 to fill up the Ford he used to lease, compared with about $10 to fill up the hybrid, which means a little bit extra take-home pay.

Despite Americans’ complaints about the rising cost of gasoline, Reuters data shows that the price Americans are paying for gasoline is well below prices drivers in many other developing countries pay.

While the summer driving season has been underway for only two weeks, gasoline prices have already blown expert forecasts for highs for the summer.

Average prices at the pump on Monday were $2.62 a gallon, according to AAA, up 16 percent from just a month ago, and over the $2.50 a gallon high that AAA had forecast for the entire summer. Last week, AAA spokesman Geoff Sundstrom said the group revised its forecast for the summer high to $2.75 a gallon.

Although prices are much lower than the $4 a gallon national average a year ago, experts say the prices will hurt American consumers already hard hit by the recession.

How are higher U.S. gasoline prices affecting you? Are you cutting back on other expenses in order to keep your car fueled up? Are you considering cutting back on driving? Are you worried about prices moving a lot higher?

Given the roller-coaster ride in Chicago grains last week as the dollar fell and rose, more volatility is likely in the coming week as investors weigh the health of the economy with the weather outside. Added to the mix will be the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s updated forecasts for the amount of grain and oilseeds left in storage bins this fall and a year from now. 
 
“Last week has shown us the dramatic impact the dollar and crude has had on our markets. We’ll continue to watch those markets very carefully,” said Rich Feltes, senior vice president at MF Global Research. 
 
As the dollar sank to its lowest level in 2009 on optimism the global economy is on the road to recovery, managed money flowed back into commodities, including the grains, rallying corn, soybeans and wheat to eight-month highs.  Demand for dollar-denominated commodities usually rises as the dollar falls. On the flip side, when the dollar rebounded on Friday, grain prices sank back on profit-taking. 
   
In the days ahead, aside from the dollar and other “outside” markets like Wall Street equities that will reflect sentiment about overall economic demand, grain traders will be focused on USDA’s monthly supply-and-demand report to be issued on Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT. 
 
Analysts polled by Reuters expected the government to trim its key numbers: projected end-season stockpiles for soybeans and corn. Given strong export demand over the past month, U.S. soy stocks could slip near 100 million bushels, the lowest supply seen since August 1977, before the new harvest. 
 
MOTHER NATURE ADDS PREMIUM TO CBOT GRAINS
Dryness in the northwestern Corn Belt — Minnesota, South Dakota, northern Nebraska — coupled with constant rains in the southeastern Corn Belt remain supportive to Chicago Board of Trade grains as farmers struggle to get their new crop seeded and established. 
 
The biggest worry is the shrinking window to plant corn in two key states — Illinois and Indiana — putting at least a million acres of expected corn production into a possible last-minute switch to soybeans, a faster maturing crop. 
 
Those two states, which produce a quarter of the American corn crop, had some 3.4 million acres of corn yet to plant last week at a time when all seedings are usually complete. Southern areas of the states were the furthest behind. USDA will issue its next crop progress report Monday afternoon.
“Agronomically, farmers can plant corn in the southern part of the state until the end of the month. But we know that corn planted that late simply has a lower yield potential,” said Bob Nielsen, extension agronomist at Purdue University in Indiana.
 
Farmers are now also bumping up against crop insurance deadlines, raising the stakes to make a firm decision. In Illinois and Indiana, June 5 was the deadline for farmers to decide whether to cash in full value on their insurance, plant corn, or switch to soybeans. Soybean farmers have until June 20.
 
The northern Plains is another worry, plagued not only by saturated fields after spring floods but chilly temperatures, dipping to below freezing in recent days. That could mean replanting as well as lost acreage for the year.
Photo: Newly emerged corn in field near Gilman, Illlinois.

 Global miner Rio Tinto said it had an excellent relationship with Chinalco, despite a decision to scrap a proposed $19.5 billion tie up with the Chinese firm on Friday.
    The failed link up between China’s Chinalco and Rio Tinto in Australia was thought by many observers to be at least partly due to shareholders’ fears that Chinalco was trying to increase its leverage in iron ore deals with Rio.
    Now that the tables have turned, and Rio announced a proposed iron ore joint venture with BHP Billiton in Western Australia the Aussies could get the upper hand in determining prices in negotiations with Chinese steel makers, analysts said.
    If the deal goes through, Damien Ma, political risk analyst for Eurasia Group said BHP and Rio would supply roughly 3/4 of China’s iron ore. “That’s enormous.”
    The deal comes amid very contentious iron ore negotitions with the price down sharply in the last six months.
    The Australians’ proximity to China, and therefore greatly lower freight costs, and the significant operating cost reductions from the planned joint venture would certainly give Brazil’s VALE, the world’s largest iron ore producer, “some competitive issues,” as one analyst put it.
    If Rio and BHP  are able to meaningfully reduce their operating costs at a time when they are already competitively advantaged by the proximity to China and the rest of Asia, analysts said it could force VALE to lower their iron ore prices to remain competitive.

From the start, "green shoots of recovery" was not necessarily the British government's wisest choice of words and after a few months of being on everyone's lips, has given way to a more lowly metaphor.
Business Minister Baroness Vadera raised the hackles of the political opposition in January when she spotted "a few green shoots" on a day of large-scale job losses and collapsing share prices.
Evidence of economic revival is still elusive, but there are ever louder hints that we have at least seen the worst -- or bottomed, to use the mot du jour.
Bottom as a noun and a verb was widely brandished by speakers attending Reuters Global Energy Summit this week, who based on their analysis on a slight increase in available credit, a tentative pick up in energy demand and rising commodity prices.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri has an interest in spotting the kind of confidence that has driven oil prices up from a low below $35 a barrel in December to almost double that.
"I have no doubt that the recession has bottomed out, but is it a V shape or a U shape?" he asked during a Reuters summit session.
Others were less convinced and the most bearish of them all was a representative of the very oversupplied tanker market, where freight rates have sunk to their lowest levels in decades, with not a green shoot in sight.
"We have seen lower than the bottom," said Erik Ranheim, a manager at oil tanker association Intertanko.