Chicago Board of Trade corn, wheat, soybean prices seesawed this week as traders seemed disinterested in the markets, waiting for the government to issue an annual bellwether — its annual planting intentions report — on March 30.
The biggest feature this week was buying of the distant deliveries, especially in soybeans. The November 2008 contract — “red” November, not this year’s but next year’s crop — rose nearly 50 cents this week.
“We officially started … the acreage fight for next year,” said analyst Roy Huckabay, noting farmers haven’t started planting the 2007 crop. Ideas of increased corn demand and shrinking soybean acreage are keeping everyone on the trading floor a little edgy, especially as we approach the most volatile time of the year as weather concerns take the upper hand.
Everyone is expecting the government to confirm next Friday a massive, ethanol-fueled hike in U.S. corn acres — up to 10 million more than in 2006 — with a significant drop in soybeans. Final trade estimates will run by Wednesday.
Most traders expect prices to keep within recent ranges in the days leading up to Friday’s report.
The other fundamental factor starting to creep into prices is the worry about planting delays. U.S. soils in the heart of the crop belt are saturated, which is slowing spring fieldwork.
“They’re already behind with fieldwork in the eastern Corn Belt,” one analyst said late Friday, noting that up to 1.5 inches of rain is forecast for that area over the next three days.
The biggest change in trade data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday was a build up of short positions by managed funds in CBOT wheat. That could offer some support to wheat prices Sunday night or Monday morning.
Part of the reason behind the disinterest in trading this week was CBOT trader-members distracted by a potential bidding war by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the IntercontinentalExchange over the CBOT. The ICE offer came out of left field last week and raised the value of a full CBOT membership by roughly $1 million overnight.
Commodity Corner
Views on commodities and energy
Outlook for Chicago grains/soy for week of March 26
Post Your Comment
- We moderate all comments and will publish everything that advances the post directly or with relevant tangential information
- We try not to publish comments that we think are offensive or appear to pass you off as another person, and we will be conservative if comments may be considered libelous information.

Trackback