All eyes were on the wheat market this week with prices soaring to an 11-year high above $6.70 per bushel — and eyeing the all-time of $7.50.
On Thursday weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 2.1 million metric tons – another 11-year high — was one catalyst for the rally. But just as bullish were worries about both heavy rains and scorching European weather shrinking the crop there.
U.S. traders will stay focused on Europe’s weather next week. Rains in France and Germany have been threatening harvest quality and quantity, driving flour miller to book U.S. wheat.
But in North America, especially Canada, there are also fears that summer heat is now shrinking spring wheat yields.
The corn market also got a boost from worry about a smaller feed-grain crop in eastern Europe due to the extreme heat.
“We’re seeing interest in U.S. sorghum from the Europeans. They feed a lot of wheat over there, so if we don’t have feed demand for wheat, they look for non-GMO crops like U.S. sorghum or Brazilian corn. Both those markets are seeing good interest, with basis levels improving,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago.
But U.S. weather overall was bearish for corn and soybean prices this week. Heavy rains moved through the Midwest, which was seen especially beneficial for soybeans now in the midst of pod setting and filling. Chicago soy prices fell to levels not seen since before the bullish June 29 USDA planting report that showed U.S. soy acreage the lowest in 12 years.
Extended forecasts looked a little warmer for next week across the Corn Belt, which might lend some support. As usual during the summer, any change in the Midwest forecast can spur volatility.
Despite Corn Belt rains this week, Chicago traders expected USDA to lower corn ratings in its weekly crop progress report on Monday afternoon. Soybean ratings could be steady or possibly lower, they said.
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Chicago wheat stays in the spotlight
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We may not have seen the high yet; in my opinion it is extremely likely European harvests will suffer badly this year. Being resident and travelling widely throughout Europe it is just incredible the visible havoc caused by freak weather this year.
The torrential rain and flooding in Northern Europe is contrasted by heat waves in the south, and also Bulgaria and Hungary.
Right now its looking like more Europeans will be looking to the US this year to make up the crop shortfalls.
- Posted by Jane Simonds