Despite a bullish government crop report issued ahead of the Chicago Board of Trade opening on Friday morning (Oct. 12), wheat and soybeans took a nose dive as traders said much of the data was already priced into the markets. 
    CBOT December wheat closed 25-1/2 cents lower at $8.57-1/2 per bushel and November soybeans closed 4-3/4 cents lower at $9.76-3/4.
    “Today you could say it was buy-the-rumor and sell-the-fact,” said Prudential  Financial analyst Shawn McCambridge in Chicago.
    Corn, on the other hand, got a shot in the arm from the crop report. The December contract closed up 7-1/4 cents at $3.51 per bushel as USDA surprised traders by not raising its yield estimate, as many had expected of the record crop. 
    “Big crops get bigger,” is another old saw of the trading pits — but it didn’t work this time.
    With the USDA’s monthly production report behind Chicago grain traders, in the week starting Oct. 15 the pits will be focusing on:
    –Will stress in the southern Australian wheat crop be relieved by any rains? The dryness in the major exporter sparked the USDA to cut its estimate for the Australian crop by 7.5 million tonnes to 13.50 million.
    However, northern Australia is beginning to harvest wheat. So any rains there could damage the already reduced crop.
    –Will export demand for corn to stay strong? U.S. customers bought a whooping 2.3 million tonnes of corn last week. Strong export demand has underpinned the corn market all season, countering the effects of an expected record-large harvest of 13.3 billion bushels.
    — Will South American fields now being planted, especially in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s No. 1 soy state, get welcome rains? Mato Grosso has been hot and dry, delaying early soybean planting. But the region is now expected to see its first beneficial rains of the season this weekend. Any rains would weigh on prices in Sunday night screen trade. Additionally, some areas of Argentina needed rain, analysts said.
    — Will U.S. winter wheat planting keep lagging the season average? Parched conditions in the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado are the main concern — these are all key growing areas for hard red winter (HRW) wheat, the par grade for delivery against Kansas City futures — and the main U.S. bread wheat for milling and export.
    USDA will issue its next crop progress update on Monday afternoon. Any rains in dry wheat areas will improve the HRW wheat outlook. Traders are also beginning to talk more about the strengthening La Nina, the Pacific Ocean weather anomaly that has a global effect — and could result in a dry fall and winter for the HRW wheat belt in the southern U.S. Plains.
    
    rtr chi cds