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Commodity Corner

Views on commodities and energy

15:30 October 31st, 2007

Oil market stuck in a hamster wheel?

Posted by: Richard Valdmanis
Tags: Energy

rtr1tmb6_comp.jpgU.S. crude oil prices gushed to a record over $94.50 a barrel Wednesday after a government report showed a surprisingly big decline in stockpile levels last week. And more declines in inventories could be on the way.

Energy analysts are saying the industry is selling off huge amounts of oil in storage because of the shape of the forward price curve — oil prices get cheaper for delivery out into the future — and the market may now be in a vicious circle…. or perhaps a hampster wheel.

“We’re in a hampster wheel right now,” said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report. “Given the economics of what it takes to store oil, it makes no sense to hold onto inventory right now. Storage owners are taking the economically prudent step and dumping inventories because of the backwardated market structure.”

He explained that having a storage tank full of crude that loses value over time makes it a wise choice for energy players to sell onto the physical market now, rather than later.

“If you were managing storage for an oil company you could be sued for malpractice for adding to storage last week. This can only end when there is not enough prompt demand to sop up supply on the spot market. Only then can we switch back into a contango structure which would be conducive to building up storage levels,” he said.

NOTE: This post was edited to change the accompanying photo.

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