Traditionally, trade during the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is slow — especially late in the week. But there’s nothing traditional about these markets, so it is anybody’s guess how much volume and volatility there will be.
 
The soy complex — soybeans at a 19-year high and soyoil at a 33-year top — will likely be the leaders again next week, whether it’s profit-taking or fresh speculative buying. If January soybeans break $10.99-1/2 — it will be the highest price for a spot contract since the summer of 1973 when it reached $11.05 a bushel. 
    
There’s been rumblings around the Chicago markets during the week ended Nov. 16, especially after Thursday’s broad-based sell-off in U.S. commodities, that the “funds” may be getting ready to liquidate some long positions before the holidays. 
 
Commodity funds added about 5,000 contracts to their net long soybean position during the week that ended on Nov. 13, based on Friday’s CFTC report. 
 
Other factors to watch: 
     
Australian and Argentine wheat harvest. Traders are waiting for Southern Hemisphere wheat supplies to move into marketing channels. They got a scare on Thursday when the heading wheat crop in Argentina was hit with a freeze, which sent the market higher, bucking a broader sell-off in commodities. 
 
South American planting weather for soybeans. Of most concern is Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, Brazil where it’s been too wet and slowing plantings. The areas saw up 2.0 inches over the weekend with another 1-2 inches forecast for this coming weekend.
 
U.S. winter wheat conditions. Crop condition have been declining due to dryness in the southwestern hard red winter wheat belt. USDA will issue its next crop update on Monday afternoon.
 
Export demand. There was floor talk late Friday that China may be covered for soybeans through January after this week’s buying spree.
 
And of course — and most influential — the movement in the crude oil market and the value of the dollar. 

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