Commodity Corner

$100 a barrel didn’t last long.

After skyrocketing to the all-time peak earlier this month, oil prices have dropped 10 percent to a slightly more managable $90 a barrel — and the world’s energy brainiacs are a bit conflicted over whether this multi-year rally is over.

 Why? To borrow from James Carville, it’s the economy, stupid.

A housing crisis and a credit crunch (not to mention the high price of gasoline at the pump) are showing signs of dragging down U.S. growth. Some economists are predicting a recession. Such a slowdown in the world’s biggest energy consumer has the potential to slow fuel consumption, analysts say – crimping trucking, travel, and manufacturing — and could also threaten the runaway growth in energy demand from developing nations like China. Meanwhile, auto companies are busy designing smaller, more efficient cars in a rush to fuel economy not seen since the 70s.

On the other side of the coin — and there always is one —  OPEC appears to like strong oil prices. The cartel, which shrugged off calls for an output hike in December when oil first flirted with the triple digits, has been equally cool to Bush’s request this week for more supply, signaling a continued tight-fisted policy.  Add to that the weak U.S. dollar and foreign government fuel subsidies that experts say could insulate non-U.S. energy consumption despite a U.S. slowdown, plus instability in big oil producer nations, and you’ve got the ingredients for continued high oil prices. 

Guess we’ll have to wait and see.