Roundup: Cross currents in the oil market

September 19, 2008

Venezuela’s ChavezOil tops $100; Washington’s plans to mop up bad assets bolster oil trading. Yet open the lens a little wider on commodities trends and note that the Reuters-Jeffries CRB index is trading at its lowest level since last October.

“The growth we saw in emerging economies from 2004-2007 was extraordinary — we may not get to that level again,”Tony Dolphin at Henderson Global Investors tells Humeyra Pamuk and Jane Merriman in an analysis on commodities investing trends here.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs energy equities analyst Arjun Murti, one of the first to predict $100 a barrel crude, cut his 2009 oil price forecast to $110 from $140 a barrel this week due to global economic weakness.

On the plate today:

  •  U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said the US will not ask members of the International Energy Agency to release emergency gasoline and diesel supplies.
  • Venezuela will sign deals to explore gas fields in the Caribbean with foreign companies, including U.S.-based Chevron, in a sign it is open to outside investment despite a wave of energy nationalizations.
  • A bill to curb speculation in the oil markets could be too restrictive and reduce liquidity, a spokeswoman for the ICE says.

I have just again reached a probable wrong conclusion but very logical and it makes me happy!!
Every time the AP publishes a “non byline” oil article within a few hours all the oil prices jump as the speculators move in. Yesterday, the 5th in the series I have tracked.
I used to work for a steel company and this was called 3rd party signaling (as for the steel companies to signal price increases as such was illegal”. And I do remember that AP “correspondents” were used at that time also.

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