What do Bigfoot, a mermaid, an alien from outer space, and clean coal all have in common?
    None of them exist, according to several environmental groups.
    Organizations such as the League of Conservation Voters, Natural Resources Defense Council and the National Wildlife Federation have launched a multi-million dollar media onslaught aimed at knocking down claims that power can be generated from coal now in an environmentally safe manner.                                                                                                                                                      The so called “reality” campaign features a television commercial with a man touting “clean coal technology” in a barren field and print ads with fictional creatures holding lumps of coal. The message of the ads is “In reality, there’s no such thing as clean coal.”
    How to handle America’s abundant coal supply is likely to remain a contentious issue as U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s incoming administration tackles climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
    Coal-fired power plants generate about half of U.S. electricity supplies, and account for about 40 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — the biggest single industrial source.
    Obama has expressed support for the development of technology that would allow coal-burning power plants to trap and store carbon dioxide rather than releasing it into the atmosphere. Such technology is commercially untested and currently economically nonviable.
    Coal industry trade groups, such as the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, say that they are committed to carbon reduction strategies and coal power is necessary to provide Americans with affordable electricity.
    Until the carbon capture and storage technology is developed, however, environmentalists behind the Reality Coalition say on their website “coal will remain a major contributor to the climate crisis.”

–Ayesha Rascoe

    Christmas is expected to come late for some green groups, or at least that’s what they’re hoping.
    With President-elect Barack Obama and Congress preparing to offer a collossal economic stimulus package in the new year, alternative energy lobbyists, think tanks, and conservation groups are all sending funding wish lists to Washington.
    Energy projects proposed for the stimulus bill range from the conventional (tax credits for renewable energy) to more  exotic ideas.
    Sapphire Energy, a renewable petrochemical company, is pushing for more government funding for the development of algae-based fuel production, including establishing national centers of excellence in algal research and mandating the U.S. Air Force test the use of algae-based jet fuel.
    A non-profit organization focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector, Architecture 2030, is encouraging the incoming administration to invest $167.3 billion over two years into a plan that links lowering mortgage interest rates with energy efficiency.
    Architecture 2030’s proposal would require people buying new homes or refinancing their mortgages to renovate their homes to meet energy reduction targets to get lower interest rates.
    Other suggestions for the economic stimulus are more symbolic. Leroy Miller of American University urges Obama to enact a 12-month plan to make the White House a zero energy building and to purchase a plug in electric vehicle.
    Not to be left out, many wildlife and conservation groups have weighed in with proposals for the economic recovery plan, which is expected to total between $500 billion to $700 billion or even more.
    The Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources has a compilation of these green stimulus ideas and more at: http://energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=IssueItems.View&IssueItem_ID=ce27babd-d579-40ce-91e9-7b41510d97d3.

– Ayesha Rascoe

It’s the year-end holidays in the freezing Midwest and months away before this field or any other in the U.S. Midwest will be seeded. But now is the time farmers begin thinking about booking their seed and fertilizer for next spring — though they as a rule won’t pull the trigger on deals before January, the new tax year.
    The relationship between corn and soybean prices will be key to their decisions. The grain market knows this. So this guesswork may have a hand in shifting Chicago Board of Trade grain prices in coming weeks and through the winter.
    In fact, this guesswork is already hitting the floor.
    By the first week of December, CBOT corn prices had dipped to levels that were definitely deterring farmers from seeding corn next spring. The ratio between new-crop November soybeans <SX9> and December corn <CZ9> — the 2009 harvest hedge months — hit a point (2.28 to 1) that attracted spreaders to begin buying corn and selling soybeans.
    Since then, corn has continued to gain back ground against beans, with the latest push starting on Friday after analytical Informa Economics shocked grain traders with updated 2009 corn and soybean planting numbers.
    The widely watched consultant said that, based on a farmer survey it conducted in early December, U.S. corn seedings will drop to 82.3 million acres, down 4 percent from the 85.9 million seeded last spring. U.S. soy acres were pegged at 81.5 million, up more than 7 percent from 75.9 million last spring.
    Falling corn prices since the summer, as ethanol demand deflates, is just one factor. The high cost of planting corn, where yields are directly related to high-priced fertilizer applications, was also enticing the switch to soybeans. Soy, a legume, fixes nitrogen in its roots and costs less to plant.
    Soybean prices have also slipped since the summer as the global economic panic deflated all commodity prices. But the fall has been less severe than corn, underpinned by tight U.S. stockpiles and continuing strong Chinese demand for soy.
    Since early September, new-crop Chicago Board of Trade December corn 2009 futures slipped on Dec. 5 to a season low of $3.49-1/4 a bushel from about $6.15, or 43 percent.
    New-crop November 2009 soybean futures <SX9> have fallen 38 percent — to $7.96-1/2 last Friday from near $13 on Sept. 2.
    But on Monday morning corn was on a roll again, gaining on soybeans as traders took profits on earlier seeding bets. The soy/corn price ratio narrowed back to 2.05 to 1 in early going. That ratio is sure to stay in the spotlight. 
     
PHOTO: Corn field in northern Illinois near Woodstock taken Sunday, Dec. 14 by Christine Stebbins

One of the great rules of inventory management — first in, first out — could apply to the process of deducing who will be agriculture secretary in the Obama administration with a wry renaming. In this iteration, it is “first named, first discarded.”

The list of potential nominees deemed as front-runners or consensus choices to run USDA has churned continuously since Barack Obama won the presidential election. And it is unclear when a nominee will be named. Most of the front-runners have faded from attention like flowers at the approach of winter.

In early November, the list of potential nominees was filled with Washington heavyweights, like National Farmers Union president Tom Buis or former Texas Rep. Charles Stenholm, along with former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack.

They were superseded by a series of state officials, such as Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Pennsylvania Agriculture Secretary Dennis Wolff. Still more potential names surfaced, including first-tem Montana Sen. John Tester and John Boyd, head of the National Black Farmers Association.

One agricultural commentator listed more than a dozen possible candidates at a conference last week, ranging from Patty Judge, the Iowa lieutenant govenor, to Jill Long Thompson, a former USDA official who ran for Indiana governor this year.

Speculation now centers on Colorado Rep. John Salazar, a farmer-rancher and Army veteran. “It’s a real long shot,” Salazar told Reuters. All the same, members of the House Agriculture Committee greeted Salazar like a returning hero when he arrived at a hearing on Monday.

In the Washington parlor game of “Who Gets the Job?” some of the people mentioned for secretary are deemed better candidates for other slots — Dallas Tonsager of the Farm Credit Administration as undersecretary for rural development and lawyer Marshall Matz as undersecretary for nutrition. Matz and Tonsager were prominent in seeking rural votes for Obama. And Californians have been consistent in backing Karen Ross for deputy secretary, the No. 2 post.

South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin still draws some attention as a potential nominee. A few congressional staff workers have a theory that Obama eventually will ask the House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson, despite his frequent disavowals. “It will not be me, I can tell you,” Peterson said a couple of weeks ago.

    — Chuck Abbott

Investors had their eyes keenly trained on New York copper’s $1.50 per lb. level before it broke down last week. On the COMEX exchange, copper teetered above the psychological $1.50 threshold before diving through on Thursday, triggering stop-loss sell orders on the way down. Then on Friday,  shockingly dismal U.S. jobs data shoved copper down to $1.3560 a lb, its lowest point since February 2005.
Copper had at that point lost two-thirds of its value off its record high set in July.
Investors saw March copper as oversold and sent it back above $1.50 on Monday. But some technical analysts caution against celebrating the upswing too soon. They viewed Monday’s advance as a bear market rally and a short-selling opportunity.  “It may be an opportunity to sell short, because the trend is down. It’s certainly overdone, but it had fallen to a significant downside target,” said technical analyst Hans Kashyap, president of Analytics Research Corp in California.
Some participants took advantage of the gains and grabbed short-term profits on Tuesday.
Looking at a monthly chart and using basic technical analysis, Kashyap projected copper’s downside objective in the $1.40 to $1.35 a lb area, precisely where it stopped on Friday.
To find that target, he took a measurement off the 2006 high at $3.99 a lb down to 2007’s low at $2.3980. He explained that for the last two years copper had made several attempts at the $4.0 level, actually flitting above it several times. But the $4.0 resistance level failed repeatedly to definitively give way, despite numerous forecasts earlier this year for $5 or $6 copper.
Though the $1.35 downside target has held since Friday, Kashyap said he would need to see a protracted period above that band to think a bottom had been established.
To think copper had turned a corner, Kashyap said he would need to see it hold above the $1.40 to $1.35 area for several weeks. Though a brief break beneath $1.35 would not be significant.
“To have any confidence in the upside, I would need to see at least a couple of weeks basing and holding that area and then pushing through the next step at the $1.77 area.”
If $1.35 support breaks, and if the current economic downturn persists that may well happen, Kashyap’s next projected downside target lies at $1.0660.
“We could get down to that swing low. But that would be a worst case scenario.”

Chicago Board of Trade markets are in their traditional holiday trading pattern — volume light and prices range-bound amid a lack of market enthusiasm. No one wants to get too aggressive, especially under the gloomy economic outlook. Traders who’ve made money this year are happy to sit tight and see what the new year brings.
    Given last week’s big sell-off in CBOT markets, with spot corn falling below $3 a bushel for the first time in two years, soybeans slipping under $8, their lowest price since May of 2007, and Chicago wheat hitting a 20-month low, it’s safe to say the grains are oversold.
    In fact all commodities took a big hit last week. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.CRB> of 19 commodities saw a record weekly fall of 14 percent amid the deepening recession fears and U.S. monthly data that showed 533,000 jobs were axed in November — the most in 34 years.
    “If crude oil bounces, we’ll bounce. At some point in time we’ll start to talk about the optimism of change with Obama,” said Don Roose, analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. “Week by week we’re getting closer to that kind of a set-up.”
    Maybe the drop in CBOT prices will bring in some fresh export tenders, analysts say. Many traders are hoping that at the very least Egypt will step in for some U.S. wheat, breaking the recent trend of Russia and France nabbing the sales.
    Corn export sales remain disappointing, losing market share to cheap feed wheat. So far, U.S. corn export sales are off 47 percent from a year ago. That kind of a number has some analysts expecting USDA to trim its export forecast in this week’s monthly crop report on Thursday.
    In contrast, soybean sales have been stronger than expected this season due to China’s voracious appetite for soy. But there is some doubt about future Chinese demand as it is building a plentiful stockpile for its state reserves, analysts say.
    On the supply side, the U.S. harvest is done for all intensive purposes — even if the western Corn Belt is still struggling to get the last, or 5 percent, of its corn crop in. The biggest problem appears to be the high moisture content of the corn, which takes time to dry down. Many farmers may just leave the crop in the field until spring. Any state crop reports issued Monday night will give traders a better insight.
    South America weather is improving for the planting and early growth of its corn and soybean crops. Southern Brazil could use more rain but is expected to see showers late this week.
    “That’s going to be an important rain event to maintain favorable conditions,” said DTN Meteorlogix forecaster Mike Palmerino.

   With the list of candidates narrowing, speculation abounds about who U.S. President-Elect Barack Obama will tap to be energy secretary in his new administration.
    Two of the top candidates mentioned have taken themselves out of the running for the cabinet spot.
    Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, told reporters Monday he had no interest in taking the position as head of the energy department. “I’m a candidate for nothing,” he said.
    Rendell’s lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, died earlier this month after a battle with cancer. Knoll’s replacement and Rendell’s successor, if he were to leave his post, is Republican Joe Scarnati.  Rendell said he could not leave Pennsylvania in Scarnati’s hands.
    Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Democratic Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, has also ruled himself out as energy secretary.
    Bingaman recently met with members of Obama’s transition team to discuss the qualifications needed, and mostly likely possible candidates, for the next energy secretary. Bingaman’s committee would have to approve Obama’s nominee.
    Obama has already named about half of his cabinet. He is set to nominate on Wednesday New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, the former energy secretary in the Bill Clinton administration, as commerce secretary.
    With oil prices falling to below $50 this week, the energy secretary post may take on a lower profile. Obama, however, has said he remains committed to revamping energy policy and creating millions of green jobs.
    Some contenders still being floated for the energy position include:
    *Ray Mabus, former Democratic Governor of Mississippi and U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer.
    *Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat who fought efforts to allow a coal-fired power plant to expand in her state, saying it would spew more greenhouse gas emissions.
    *John Rowe, chairman and chief executive officer of Exelon Corporation, one of the nation’s largest electric utilities.
    *Dan Reicher, director of climate change and energy initiatives at Google.org.
    *Democratic Representative Jay Inslee, of Washington, who serves on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. He supports developing a federal program to aggressively invest in alternative energy.

– Ayesha Rascoe