Commodity Corner

from Global Investing:

Competition for rare earth metals

China’s dominant position in the arena of rare earth metals used in new technology such as batteries for hybrid cars and magnetic motors could be eroded by an Australian listed company – Greenland Mineral and Energy. The company is planning to list in London next year, pending the resolution of a couple of issues.

Greenland Minerals and Energy thinks it probably has access to the world's largest depositis of rare earth metals and uranium -- used to make nuclear energy.

Global consumption of rare earths last year is estimated at 135,000 tonnes or $1.5-$2.0 billion in 2008. Demand is forecast to grow by 65 percent by 2012 from 2008 levels.

from Summit Notebook:

U.S. Commerce Secretary doesn’t like ring of Shanghai Silicon Valley

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke says one thing he doesn't want to see is a Shanghai Silicon Valley develop from China's investment in clean energy.

He warned that if the United States doesn't move forward on clean energy, it risks falling behind China where the government is spending almost $100 billion a year to support renewable energy and clean energy efficiency.

And China is not doing it just to address climate change issues, but because it sees an economic opportunity. "They're really focusing investing in the clean energy field to serve the needs of the world," Locke said at the Reuters Washington Summit.

"And so that's why it's very important that we pass clean energy legislation because there's so many investors, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for that certainty," he said. "They just want to know what the rules of the game are, what the tax incentives are, what the tax rules and regulations are before they commit."

The longer the U.S. government takes to pass comprehensive energy legislation, "the farther ahead the Chinese will be and we certainly do not want 10 years from now Shanghai and other parts of China to be the Silicon Valley of the clean energy field," Locke said.

He agreed with President Barack Obama's equation. "The president has said that the country that leads in the clean energy sector will lead the world economy, I believe that's true," Locke said.

For more news from the Reuters Washington Summit, click here.

Will Russia cut aluminum production after winter thaw?

On Alcoa’s quarterly conference call this week, CEO Klaus Kleinfeld pointed out that there is currently a 1.4 million tonne aluminum surplus in the world outside of China, and therefore to expect more production to come off line in coming months above the already-announced 1.6 million tonnes of production that has yet to be implemented.

Source: Alcoa

Both Alcoa, as the world’s largest aluminum producer, and China, producing more than 13 million tonnes in 2008, have idled substantial percentages of their output.

Russia, however, with about 4.2 million annual tonnes of capacity, has not curtailed any production, said Kleinfeld.

He said he thought political factors centered around maintaining employment levels have kept Russian smelters running.

“Many of the smelters are in regions where there is nothing else, in very remote areas, and are an anchor for the area. When Springtime comes and there are new opportunities to shift (workers) into, farming or construction, it will probably be  easier to cut production there,” he said.

Start of the Games, end of the commodities boom?

Were the opening ceremonies for the Beijing games the beginning of the end of the commodities rally? This graphic shows that China’s economic growth took off after the International Olympic Committee gave it the nod in 2001. The commodities boom, based on the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, can be traced back to around that time as well.

China went on an unprecedented seven-year construction spree to modernize its cities and infrastructure before throngs of athletes, tourists and media members arrived from around the world, stockpiling raw materials to accomplish its makeover.

Building the Olympic facilities and spiffing up Beijing for the cameras was only a drop in the bucket compared to overall growth in China’s economy, but consider that the spectacular National Stadium, known as the Bird’s Nest, required 45,000 tonnes of steel. Over that time, China became the number one consumer of metals and the number two buyer of oil behind the United States.

No one is expecting China to slam on the brakes when the Olympics end. But even a cooling from 10 percent growth a year to 8 percent should have negative consequences for commodity prices, given that demand from the United States and Europe is withering.