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Commodity Corner

Views on commodities and energy

February 9th, 2009

U.S. Crude Futures Contracts Held By United States Oil Fund in 2008

Posted by: Matthew Robinson

usoilfund

The United States Oil Fund LP exchange traded fund has built up a large position in crude oil over the past four months, accounting for nearly a quarter of the open interest in the March contract on the NYMEX last week.

Following is a list of the tentative 2009 oil futures contract roll dates for the fund, according to United States Oil Fund’s Website.

January 6, 2009 July 7, 2009
February 6, 2009 August 6, 2009
March 6, 2009 September 8, 2009
April 7, 2009 October 6, 2009
May 5, 2009 November 6, 2009
June 8, 2009 December 7, 2009
February 4th, 2009

Drop in oil demand slowing?

Posted by: Matthew Robinson
oildemand

The drop in U.S. oil demand against year-ago levels has begun to slow as data is compared with weak levels from 2008, when consumption slowed due to the slumping economy and the high fuel prices seen during the first half of the year.

The graph shows the change in U.S. demand over the four-week period from levels from the previous year.

October 1st, 2008

Energy agenda: Offshore recovery efforts

Posted by: Reuters Staff

1Lt. John Savell (L) and Lt. Collin Smth of the Louisiana National Guard walk near a puddle during a foot patrol in the Lower Ninth Ward following Hurricane Gustav in New Orleans, Louisiana September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Lee Celano (UNITED STATES)Oil prices are slipping this morning, reacting more to dimming prospects for U.S. growth after a report showed job losses in August than the tropical storms building in the Caribbean.

October crude was last down close to $2 at $105.92 a barrel on the NY Merc — just about the level Iran’s OPEC governor said on Friday is “appropriate.”

Here’s a look at some of the story planning on the Reuters energy team today:

  • Checking in on Hurricane Gustav cleanup - it’s been slow. (MMS releases updated production data from Gulf of Mexico in Gustav’s wake (1800 GMT)
  • Checking on Entergy’s work to restore power, repair damaged grid
  • From Caracas, details of any impact on oil industry from Monday’s electricity blackout.
September 25th, 2008

Pickens misses the turn

Posted by: Daniel Bases

T. Boone Pickens is pretty calm for a guy who lost more than a billion dollars.

The Texas energy tycoon has put his considerable wealth behind a renewable energy effort, saying he’s sick and tired of seeing America send all of its money overseas to pay for imported oil. But he’s also suffered a considerable loss on his energy investments: He “missed the turn.”

Read about it here and watch edited video below.

September 24th, 2008

Commodities Roundup: Solar rally, ‘dismal’ picture of fuel demand

Posted by: Emily Church

chavez1.jpgU.S. crude futures are holding near $108 a barrel, as U.S. data shows that refinery utilization dropped to the lowest on record last week in the wake of Hurricane Ike.  Crude stocks dipped by less than expected thanks to the lower demand from refineries.

“The EIA data shows you that demand looks abysmal. The crude import numbers are surprising. Going forward, I see inventories rising,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors.

Elsewhere, solar power stocks are rallying after the U.S. Senate voted to extend tax credits worth $18 billion for renewable energy sources.  Also, Energy Sec. Bodman is slated to speak at GridWeek Conference in DC.

Tuesday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (pictured) paid tribute to China’s autocratic late leader Mao Zedong minutes after stepping onto Chinese soil, and said he hoped to build a joint tanker fleet and nearly double oil exports to the world’s number two consumer next year.

September 18th, 2008

Commodities Roundup: Credit squeeze felt

Posted by: Emily Church

Look at meGold comes off but oil futures work to recoup $100 and at least one commodities-linked exchange is outperforming as central banks pump money into distressed markets. (Toronto’s benchmark stock index is rising over 2% at this moment. No such luck in Australia overnight and the reeling Russian market remains shuttered)

Still the banks crisis remains a potent presence. Energy trading heavyweight Morgan Stanley elected to withdraw from the Platts benchmark oil trading window in Asia on Thursday, steering clear of a possible test of its credit acceptance among counterparties.

The Australian picks up on a concern the credit crunch squeeze is hitting smaller exchange players, quoting Philip Gotthelf, president of Equidex Brokerage Group that some brokerage houses

“are at 150 per cent of exchange margin. They’re essentially shutting the little guy out completely”. It is harder to buy or sell crude, because “there’s less credit around to do it.”

On the plate today:

  • A lack of sufficient investment in new natural gas supplies and delays remain a major problem in most markets, Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director says.
  • U.S. ethanol makers wrestle with unpredictable corn prices and dwindling cash pile
  • MMS releases updated production data from Gulf of Mexico (1800 GMT )
September 16th, 2008

Commodities Agenda: Offshore damage and what’s next for diversification?

Posted by: Emily Church

On the serefiner.jpgcond day of financial services turmoil, CNBC keeps a live update of the crude oil price on lower-right of the screen. An interesting choice for a sentiment indicator, particularly with the benchmark stock indices little changed.

Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and American International Group all are clearing members on major commodity exchanges. All three had been active in getting clients to invest in the rally that made commodities the best performing asset class of the past few years, Barani Krishnan writes in an analysis on the apparent breakdown in relationships in asset classes.

(U.S. crude traded down $3.96 to $91.75 a barrel by 9:55 a.m. EDT in what’s seen as a move to cash. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, a global commodities benchmark, neared eight-month lows on Monday.)

Some other stories we’re watching in commodities today:

  • Hurricane Ike did not appear to inflict heavy damage on oil refineries, FEMA told reporters. Nonetheless, several offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico — including BP’s big Mad Dog facility — were damaged. It’s a sign a full recovery of oil and natural gas production in the region could be a long way off.
  • Farm Foundation Forum on rural health insurance issues.
  • Expecting Mexico and Central American coffee exports data and Nicaragua coffee figures
  • Venezuelan Oil Minister Ramirez and Chile’s Mining Minister on a visit to sign exploration contracts

And the question for the day… What now for the pension funds and commodities diversification theory?

September 15th, 2008

Commodities Agenda: Impact of Gustav and Ike (and a cameo from Lehman)

Posted by: Emily Church

houston.jpgU.S. crude futures have just settled down 5.4 percent at $95.71 a barrel. Turmoil in the stock market plays a role but early signs Hurricane Ike spared key energy infrastructure also weighed on prices. In Texas, Chris Baltimore writes “widespread power outages were the key hindrance. Electricity is the lifeblood to Gulf coast refineries.”

Early indications are that the storm caused only minor to moderate damage to platforms and coastal refineries.

CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF GUSTAV AND IKE
*20.48 million barrels of crude oil
*102.79 billion cubic feet of natural gas
*33.06 million barrels of refining (counting only plants completely shut)

CURRENTLY SHUT/SLOWED
*99.9 pct Gulf of Mexico oil output
*93.8 pct Gulf of Mexico gas output
*16 refineries shut, 24.6 pct of US capacity
*5 refineries representing 7.7 pct of US capacity at reduced rates
*Some ports, Gulf Coast pipelines ramping back up
*At least 55 ships await entry to Houston
stock market plays a role but early signs Hurricane Ike spared key energy infrastructure also weighed on prices.

September 11th, 2008

Commodities Agenda: All about Ike (and that sex scandal too)

Posted by: Reuters Staff

The latest projections pointed Hurricane Ike toward the middle of the Texas coast, skirting to the west of the main region for offshore production in the Gulf. Nonetheless, oil companies have shut more than 95 percent of offshore production and 90 percent of refining capacity on the mainland. Weakening demand is still the driver for the market this morning; crude oil prices are under pressure

Offshore drilling platformElsewhere in the oil patch, an U.S. Interior Department report makes for unusually salacious reading, with claims that employees who oversaw oil drilling on federal lands had sex and used illegal drugs with workers at energy companies. “When confronted by our investigators, none of the employees involved displayed remorse,” inspector general Earl Devaney said.

The internal report on the department’s Minerals Management Service emerges a day after Democratic lawmakers in the House of Representatives unveiled legislation that, if passed, would permit offshore drilling at least 50 miles from U.S. coasts.

Some of the stories Reuters commodities reporters are tracking today:

  • House Agriculture committee hold hearing on price movements in agriculture and energy commodity markets
  • USDA export sales
  • US ITC releases base metals import data
September 10th, 2008

Commodities Agenda: OPEC, Ike and oil

Posted by: Reuters Staff

ike.jpgA surprise cut in production from OPEC and Hurricane’s Ike’s looming presence in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico are supporting oil prices above $100 a barrel. Just a daily move? Not to some. On OPEC, UBS told clients: ”We think this is a serious deal for a real cut… In this market, direction matters and this is a turn.”

It’s hard to grasp just what’s behind the volatility in oil prices lately, says Jim Landers of the Dallas News, taking on the Bubble Theory for the $40 a barrel drop in oil prices since July 11. (Pictured above: Havana before Ike hit)

Here are some of the stories Reuters commodities reporters are keeping an eye on today:

  • MMS releases updated production data from Gulf of Mexico in Gustav’s wake
  • Independent report on role of speculators in big oil, commodities price swings
  • Denver Gold Conference winds down but not before we’ve heard from miners Freeport, Newmont and Barrick