Counterparties: Smashed China
Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, itâ€™s just a matter of checking a box if youâ€™re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.
â€śChinaâ€™s interbank market is basically frozen â€” much like credit markets froze in the United States right after Lehman failed,â€ť Patrick Chovanec of Silvercrest Asset Management tells the NYT today. The Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor), the countryâ€™s version of Libor, has shot up to 13.44% on Friday from 7.66% on Wednesday, resulting in a cash crunch. (Matt Phillips has a nice chart here.)
Chinaâ€™s central bank isnâ€™t stepping in. Instead, to the surprise of The Economist, it appears to be letting banks figure all this out on their own. Banks generally expect help from central bankers when they need cash. Chinaâ€™s central bank, however, isnâ€™t injecting liquidity, itâ€™s actually pulling money from circulation by selling short-term debt.
Last week, Fitch RatingsÂ warned about the size of the Chinese credit market. Overall, credit in China has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion since the Lehman crisis. Fitchâ€™s Charlene Chu says China has â€śreplicated the entire US commercial banking system in five yearsâ€ť. In the past, Chinese legal authorities have dealt with Chinaâ€™s credit markets harshly. Now monetary policy makers seem to be taking a similarly stringent tack.
In a client note — sorry, no link — UBS analysts warned that Chinaâ€™s central bank was engaging in dangerous â€śbrinksmanshipâ€ť with its banks. Sober Look thinks Chinaâ€™s central bank is risking a recession by not intervening:
It’s not clear if people fully appreciate the potential impact of this liquidity squeeze – including folks at the PBoC. This is not a game. These tight conditions and high rates over a longer period can easily derail lending activities across the country while potentially putting a number of financial institutions at risk and sending the economy into a tailspin. With the Eurozone still struggling in the aftermath of the crisis, let’s see what a recession in China (12% of world’s GDP) can do for global growth.
Chinaâ€™s economic growth is already slowing, and manufacturing activity is at a nine-month low. Structurally, China may be running out of ways to grow. As Sober Look points out, in that context, even a self-inflicted, temporary increase in the cost of short-term debt could have unintended consequences. — Ben Walsh and Ryan McCarthy
On to todayâ€™s links:
How shareholders are ruining American business – Justin Fox
Americaâ€™s broken bootstraps: George Will on the decline of upward mobility – WaPo
“The American Dream isn’t dead. It’s just moved to Denmark” -Â Matthew Oâ€™Brien
And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.