Counterparties

MORNING BID – Apres Fed, le Deluge

September 18, 2014

The Kremlinologists turned out to be right, and the Federal Reserve left its “considerable time” language in its statement to assure the markets that it would be around for a while longer with rock bottom rates. It’s the divergent (to a point) reaction out of the markets themselves that is interesting to parse, and will be key to watch in coming weeks and months. The action in the stock market was to suggest the entire exercise was a snooze-fest, with stocks ending marginally higher (yes, the Dow at a new record) but not too far from where the major averages were trading just before the news. Which is to say the equity market, always the most optimistic of U.S. markets, has it in mind that low rates stay for now, and until “now” is “then,” it’s time to party.

MORNING BID – Sound as a pound

September 9, 2014

Global ructions are dominating asset flows right now, and we’re not even talking about violent events such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or the Israel-Palestine situation. Right now smaller events – yet uncertain ones – seem to be affecting the larger markets a bit more, contributing to a decided shift in factors that U.S. assets are reacting to.

MORNING BID – Copper, China and currencies

March 12, 2014

Markets start on the back foot this morning, with weakness overseas – and particularly in emerging markets – feeding through to a bit of strain on U.S. futures and a bit of flight to quality to the U.S. bond market.

MORNING BID – Janet Yellen’s rain (snow) check

February 27, 2014

This is the thing about delaying the new Fed chair’s follow-up testimony by two weeks due to bad weather, you actually make the second hearing something that’s potentially interesting. (It will depend, of course, on whether members of the Senate Committee ask provocative questions, and while you can lead a horse to water, well, you know.)

MORNING BID – Only a dream in Rio

January 15, 2014

Among the BRIC nations, Brazil’s the one that’s been repeatedly whacked with a brick in the last couple of years, seeing its currency depreciate and its stock market trashed as it steadily ratchets up interest rates to an expected 10.25 percent this evening (or perhaps even 10.50 percent).

Morning Bid: Dollar Bills and Dollar Bulls

January 9, 2014

The dollar’s performance hasn’t been anything to write home about in the last few years. It has weakened against major currencies like the euro and the Swiss franc, and been held back by lower interest rates thanks to the Federal Reserve’s triple-dose of quantitative easing, but there’s been a turn of late, though it’s too early to say whether it will have lasting power.