Counterparties

MORNING BID — Breaking it down, Fed style

September 17, 2014

It’s all over but the dissection of the Fed statement, due later today, which will follow with a Janet Yellen press conference after the U.S. markets get word of whether the Fed did or did not eliminate the “considerable time” bit from its statement that saw markets go into a tizzy all of Tuesday. At this point the market believes that phrase now may *not* be eliminated, which marks the second reversal in about a week on this point. No matter what, somebody is going to be caught leaning in the wrong direction, but if the latest intelligence is that the Fed’s statement won’t change materially until the October meeting, then the freshest bets are probably in the direction of those betting on that much. So if the statement does cut out that language or modifies it in any way, you could see a selloff in equities, the dollar and bonds.

MORNING BID – Pitfalls and switchbacks

March 31, 2014

This week profiles as one that contains a bunch of potential minefields that could challenge the market’s prevailing view on what’s to happen with major market-moving events.

MORNING BID – Janet Yellen’s rain (snow) check

February 27, 2014

This is the thing about delaying the new Fed chair’s follow-up testimony by two weeks due to bad weather, you actually make the second hearing something that’s potentially interesting. (It will depend, of course, on whether members of the Senate Committee ask provocative questions, and while you can lead a horse to water, well, you know.)

MORNING BID – Emerging Markets, Apple, Ma Bell, and whatever else one can think of

January 28, 2014

In the words of Inigo Montoya, let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

Morning Bid: Dollar Bills and Dollar Bulls

January 9, 2014

The dollar’s performance hasn’t been anything to write home about in the last few years. It has weakened against major currencies like the euro and the Swiss franc, and been held back by lower interest rates thanks to the Federal Reserve’s triple-dose of quantitative easing, but there’s been a turn of late, though it’s too early to say whether it will have lasting power.