US 3Q GDP in charts: Shelves full, consumers still weak

November 7, 2013

Today’s third-quarter GDP data — full BEA release here — was a bit of a mixed bag, Reuters writes:

Details of the first estimate of third-quarter GDP were generally weak, with inventories contributing 0.83 percentage point to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 2.0 percent rate after expanding 2.1 percent in Q2.

The WSJ has a round-up of what economists and others are saying. Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisors said, “some concerning undertones. Unsurprisingly, consumers remain the primary engine for growth, but the pace of spending growth continues to stall.”

Here’s the above in chart form:

Here’s a look at some of the major contributors to GDP:

Jason Furman, the chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, tweeted out this chart, which shows just how little help the public sector has offered to economic growth.

Calculated Risk notes that residential investment in today’s data was downright sunny, growing at a 14.6% annualized rate. There could be more growth in this area to come:

The key story is that residential investment is continuing to increase, and I expect this to continue. Since RI is the best leading indicator for the economy, this suggests no recession in the near future (with the usual caveats about Congress).

Here’s Calculated Risk’s chart:

How far along is the US in its current economic recovery? The Minneapolis Fed has updated this chart, comparing economic growth post-2007 to other periods of economic recovery.

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