Jeff Gundlach on the market’s extremely good, possibly unsustainable 2013

Jan 21, 2014 20:32 UTC

Jeff Gundlach, one of the market’s most well-known investors, is out with his predictions for 2014. “About everything that tends to characterize the vicinity of a top in the equity market seems to be in place. The stock market is at best fully valued, maybe a little over.” (Check out all of his charts here).

Gundlach writes that he has “never seen a forecast as solidified across every asset class as is the consensus for 2014,” and he suggests that the market could run out of steam. Here’s Gundlach’s look at various equity market returns last year:

And here’s Gundlach’s look at the US economy’s post-crisis trajectory:

Finally, here’s a look at how asset classes performed last year:

 

The surprise uptick in 3rd quarter GDP revisions

Dec 20, 2013 16:54 UTC

U.S. GDP grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter of 2013 — at a 4.1% annual rate rather than the 3.6% previously reported — according to revised data released by the government Friday. Particularly, consumer spending was much higher than previously reported.

Here’s more detail from Reuters:

Business spending increased at a 4.8 percent rate instead of the 3.5 percent pace reported early this month. That reflected stronger growth in intellectual property products such as software, research and development, and entertainment.

There were also upward revisions to consumption. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was raised 0.6 percentage point to a 2.0 percent rate. The revisions reflected higher spending on both goods and services than previously estimated.

Revisions to spending on gasoline and other energy goods accounted for part of the upward revision to spending on goods, while spending on healthcare and other services also was higher than previously estimated.

Consumer spending grew at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter.

The WSJ has some highlights from today’s release.

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