David's Feed
Jul 1, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Failure to Communicate

Dionysus the Elder, ruler of Greek city-state Syracuse in the fourth century B.C., was one of the first to devalue currency by turning one drachma into two drachmas by decree when he got into trouble through excessive spending.

He wasn’t aware, but he had set a precedent, one that has continued through the last two hundred years, as the modern Greek state defaulted on its debts in 1843, 1860 and 1893.

Jun 30, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Dispelling Some Myths About the Greek Situation

We’re at the point now where most bets are off the table, or the ones that at least were on the table before the Greeks and the rest of Europe saw fit to walk away from one another are feeling some pain. It’s worth looking at a few of the myths that got us to this point, particularly as, in an age of Greenspan Puts, the Bernanke Helicopter, Mario-Whatever-It-Takes, and Abenomics, the prevailing expectation for investors was that things just somehow get worked out.

And for sure, at some point, this will likely be worked out as well, one way or another. The forecast for markets certainly isn’t for a worldwide crackup, and the S&P 500 isn’t going to see a 50 percent breakdown as a result of a long-overdue crash of a housing bubble and a bunch of executives who thought the world owed them something.

Jun 30, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Dispelling Some Myths About the Greek Situation

We’re at the point now where most bets are off the table, or the ones that at least were on the table before the Greeks and the rest of Europe saw fit to walk away from one another are feeling some pain. It’s worth looking at a few of the myths that got us to this point, particularly as, in an age of Greenspan Puts, the Bernanke Helicopter, Mario-Whatever-It-Takes, and Abenomics, the prevailing expectation for investors was that things just somehow get worked out.

And for sure, at some point, this will likely be worked out as well, one way or another. The forecast for markets certainly isn’t for a worldwide crackup, and the S&P 500 isn’t going to see a 50 percent breakdown as a result of a long-overdue crash of a housing bubble and a bunch of executives who thought the world owed them something.

Jun 29, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

It’s All Greek to Us

Today looks set to be one of those days when the fictional (The Princess Bride) character Inigo Montoya’s directive: “Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up” would prove valuable.

The Greek and Puerto Rican balance sheet problems are coming to a head, strangely at about the same time, and the early ructions in futures on Sunday night may be indicative of how it’s going to go, at least for 24 hours, in U.S. markets.

Jun 29, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

It’s All Greek to Us

Today looks set to be one of those days when the fictional (The Princess Bride) character Inigo Montoya’s directive: “Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up” would prove valuable.

The Greek and Puerto Rican balance sheet problems are coming to a head, strangely at about the same time, and the early ructions in futures on Sunday night may be indicative of how it’s going to go, at least for 24 hours, in U.S. markets.

Jun 25, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

The Big Fat Greek Disaster

To the absolute surprise of nobody, Greece and its so-called “Troika” of creditors have once again hit an impasse in its most recent meeting on figuring out everything that will make the sun shine brighter and result in dancing in the streets.

The interesting thing here is that the markets haven’t had much of a reaction overall, having grown accustomed to the on-again/off-again stuff that has made us all a bit wary of things. What’s next? European Union leaders are convening to discuss the issue again before the “deadline” next week that results in the Greeks possibly being forced to leave the euro zone, default on its debt, and all other sorts of bad things that the markets, at least the U.S. markets, seem not to be worried about anymore. That, even though one minister told Reuters that the loss of trust was becoming “extreme”.

Jun 23, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Good Health, The Most Important Thing

The healthcare sector remains one of the bigger focuses for investors, particularly in coming days as everyone anticipates the outcome of the Supreme Court’s ruling on a case that could affect the future of the Affordable Care Act. It comes just as the major health insurers are considering big tie-ups (Anthem buying Cigna, Humana possibly being sold to Aetna or Cigna) that has heightened interest in one of the few sectors that’s expected to show reasonably solid earnings growth, something we’ll get more clues about in coming weeks.

The health sector is anticipated to post year-over-year growth of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, better than most other sectors save consumer discretionary names, financials and the tiny telecom sector.

Jun 22, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Do You Believe in Magic?

The main action for investors is a focus on that same problem – Greece. But hope springs anew on fresh reports of a cash-for-reforms deal in the hours jut before the latest LAST meeting to be held Monday evening Europaland-time.

That’s got markets in a good mood, boosting equities and sending bond prices lower. Perhaps it was the reports about pressures on the Greek banks, more expectations that the loans outstanding won’t be paid on time, and more dire consequences expressed by EU members that shifted things.

Jun 19, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Off the rails on a crazy train

Matters continue to worsen in Greece, and the markets are becoming more sensitive to each sundry rumor about a deal, a lack of a deal, progress or no progress.

There’s now talk about capital controls and worries about bank runs. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman said this morning that what’s currently a liquidity crisis has the chance to turn into a solvency crisis (that is, moving from not having enough money on a given day, to not having enough money…on any day).

Jun 19, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Off the rails on a crazy train

Matters continue to worsen in Greece, and the markets are becoming more sensitive to each sundry rumor about a deal, a lack of a deal, progress or no progress.

There’s now talk about capital controls and worries about bank runs. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman said this morning that what’s currently a liquidity crisis has the chance to turn into a solvency crisis (that is, moving from not having enough money on a given day, to not having enough money…on any day).

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the U.S. markets team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He is a frequent guest on Reuters TV, and has appeared on CNN International, Fox Business, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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