David's Feed
Oct 15, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

A Rich Tapestry

It’s worth asking whether the markets are running a little too hot, cold, or just right, given the recent run in stocks following the August-to-September swoon. Investors always have ways of finding doomsday-style evidence that indicates that one way or another, the market is doing the wrong thing, and all hell is about to break loose. Later on Thursday, we’ll detail one of these, the so-called “skew” index that measures the cost of put options versus call options, which is signaling some worrying things of late.

Again, the market right now is something of a rich tapestry. The recent news from Johnson & Johnson and Wal-Mart Stores shows that companies continue to operate from the same playbook, more or less staying in a defensive crouch, cutting capital expenditures and announcing large share repurchase programs that aren’t exactly exciting people all that much anymore.

Oct 15, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

A Rich Tapestry

It’s worth asking whether the markets are running a little too hot, cold, or just right, given the recent run in stocks following the August-to-September swoon. Investors always have ways of finding doomsday-style evidence that indicates that one way or another, the market is doing the wrong thing, and all hell is about to break loose. Later on Thursday, we’ll detail one of these, the so-called “skew” index that measures the cost of put options versus call options, which is signaling some worrying things of late.

Again, the market right now is something of a rich tapestry. The recent news from Johnson & Johnson and Wal-Mart Stores shows that companies continue to operate from the same playbook, more or less staying in a defensive crouch, cutting capital expenditures and announcing large share repurchase programs that aren’t exactly exciting people all that much anymore.

Oct 14, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Netflix and Bill(s)

Nearly 10 full months into the year, the easy winner among S&P 500 companies in terms of share performance is Netflix, which has gained 132 percent, even as other major momentum names have been broad-sided by the weakness in stocks that generally benefit from positive price trends.

Shares are still 12 percent from a 52-week high, but a number of other names have been hit even harder, and the question is whether the momentum factor that drove gains through the early part of the year can re-establish itself in the next month or so.

Oct 14, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Netflix and Bill(s)

Nearly 10 full months into the year, the easy winner among S&P 500 companies in terms of share performance is Netflix, which has gained 132 percent, even as other major momentum names have been broad-sided by the weakness in stocks that generally benefit from positive price trends.

Shares are still 12 percent from a 52-week high, but a number of other names have been hit even harder, and the question is whether the momentum factor that drove gains through the early part of the year can re-establish itself in the next month or so.

Oct 9, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Ball of Confusion

Equities have risen more than seven percent in the last eight sessions. Thursday’s Federal Reserve minutes became the latest ball of confusion fired on the markets, and those in the stock-market world smiled, and asked for another, pushing equities to their highest levels in some time. This is somewhat maddening.

In its minutes, the Fed made it clear that: a) the September meeting, contra John Williams, was not a close call at all, and, b) it sorely lacks the ability to communicate its mission effectively right now.

Oct 9, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Ball of Confusion

Equities have risen more than seven percent in the last eight sessions. Thursday’s Federal Reserve minutes became the latest ball of confusion fired on the markets, and those in the stock-market world smiled, and asked for another, pushing equities to their highest levels in some time. This is somewhat maddening.

In its minutes, the Fed made it clear that: a) the September meeting, contra John Williams, was not a close call at all, and, b) it sorely lacks the ability to communicate its mission effectively right now.

Oct 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Yummy, or Not

Futures have put together modest gains as the equity market looks to turn back to its winning ways after losses interrupted a five-day rally that’s built mostly on hope and duct tape, it seems. The prevailing commentary seems to still be left in a bit more of a pessimistic mode, with Citigroup’s chief economist William Buiter, who, well, muses more than anything else, about the output gap, that is, the level of growth compared with the level of potential growth, saying that if we get another year of lousy economic activity, it would suggest the world is in recession.

Which carries with it all sorts of concerns, of course, and probably drives more activity to safe-haven bonds in Germany and the United States. We’re not there, mind you, but this is a bit more nuanced of a way of discussing it than simply asserting negative growth over two quarters, something China isn’t likely to achieve for a long time – even though it’s clear that economy is struggling when compared with its recent past.

Oct 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Yummy, or Not

Futures have put together modest gains as the equity market looks to turn back to its winning ways after losses interrupted a five-day rally that’s built mostly on hope and duct tape, it seems. The prevailing commentary seems to still be left in a bit more of a pessimistic mode, with Citigroup’s chief economist William Buiter, who, well, muses more than anything else, about the output gap, that is, the level of growth compared with the level of potential growth, saying that if we get another year of lousy economic activity, it would suggest the world is in recession.

Which carries with it all sorts of concerns, of course, and probably drives more activity to safe-haven bonds in Germany and the United States. We’re not there, mind you, but this is a bit more nuanced of a way of discussing it than simply asserting negative growth over two quarters, something China isn’t likely to achieve for a long time – even though it’s clear that economy is struggling when compared with its recent past.

Oct 5, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Glacially Speaking

The week’s data is not strong enough to offset last week’s disappointment at the weak jobs report, so markets are more likely to focus on the several Fed speakers on the docket.

Everyone is likely to be watching to see how the Fed decided to hold off on raising rates and how close it is to a move, and what they’re looking at that particularly concerns them, because they’ve muddied the waters quite a bit, as have some other central banks, on what exactly is influencing their decision-making process right now. For the moment, the odds on a Fed raise by December are way, way low, and those who thought 2016 was the most likely lift-off point are looking pretty smart at this moment.

Oct 5, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Glacially Speaking

The week’s data is not strong enough to offset last week’s disappointment at the weak jobs report, so markets are more likely to focus on the several Fed speakers on the docket.

Everyone is likely to be watching to see how the Fed decided to hold off on raising rates and how close it is to a move, and what they’re looking at that particularly concerns them, because they’ve muddied the waters quite a bit, as have some other central banks, on what exactly is influencing their decision-making process right now. For the moment, the odds on a Fed raise by December are way, way low, and those who thought 2016 was the most likely lift-off point are looking pretty smart at this moment.

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the U.S. markets team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He is a frequent guest on Reuters TV, and has appeared on CNN International, Fox Business, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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