David's Feed
Mar 21, 2014

‘Game of Thrones’ screening draws throngs of fans to Brooklyn

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) – Spring may finally be in the
air, but the “Game of Thrones” fans who descended on New York’s
Barclays Center on Thursday evening know different: winter is
coming.

The fourth season of HBO’s increasingly popular medieval
fantasy-drama will premiere on April 6, but 7,000 people who
bought tickets to the Brooklyn event were treated to an advance
screening of the season’s first episode, along with a brief
panel discussion with several cast members and author George
R.R. Martin, whose books form the basis for the television show.

Mar 20, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Hi Janet, Here’s a Selloff.

Welcome Madame Chair, here’s a market selloff for you.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen made some news that she didn’t expect yesterday. She perhaps thought she was offering some clarity when she answered the question from Reuters’ Ann Saphir as to when the Fed might start raising interest rates. That’s not how it worked, although at least in this case she didn’t mouth off to Maria Bartiromo the way Ben Bernanke did eight years ago.

What we didn’t see in her answer on the distance between the end of QE3 and the first rate hikes of “six months” (or something like that), is whether we will start to see any kind of reaction from the primary dealers surveyed by Reuters yesterday.

Mar 20, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Hi Janet, Here’s a Selloff.

Welcome Madame Chair, here’s a market selloff for you.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen made some news that she didn’t expect yesterday. She perhaps thought she was offering some clarity when she answered the question from Reuters’ Ann Saphir as to when the Fed might start raising interest rates. That’s not how it worked, although at least in this case she didn’t mouth off to Maria Bartiromo the way Ben Bernanke did eight years ago.

What we didn’t see in her answer on the distance between the end of QE3 and the first rate hikes of “six months” (or something like that), is whether we will start to see any kind of reaction from the primary dealers surveyed by Reuters yesterday.

Mar 20, 2014

Rate hikes not likely till late 2015

By David Gaffen

(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will not begin raising interest rates until the second half of 2015, despite comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested increases might come sooner, a survey of top Wall Street economists showed on Wednesday.

Yellen, in a press conference following the end of Wednesday’s two-day Fed meeting, said that it would be a “considerable period” between the end of the current bond-buying program and the beginning of interest-rate increases, but then added that it could be “six months or that type of thing.”

Mar 18, 2014

Putin speech on Ukraine eases market worry, shares rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Major world equity markets rose on Tuesday and the safe-haven yen pared gains after President Vladimir Putin, while approving plans to make Crimea part of Russia, said he did not want to split Ukraine.

Gold, also sought in times of tension, fell and low-risk government bond yields rose.

Mar 18, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Seeing the Oracle

The markets are still a few weeks away from the earnings season (didn’t the last one just end?) but there’s an early – or late, if you will – precursor to all of that with Oracle’s results due out after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Whether it’s a harbinger of what to expect for technology companies remains to be seen. But as a company with substantial revenue coming from the Asia-Pacific, it’s going to be closely watched to see what kind of toll slowing growth in China has taken on demand for technology goods for companies operating in the region in general.

Mar 14, 2014

U.S. consumer sentiment edges lower in March

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Consumer sentiment dipped modestly in early March, entirely due to reduced expectations for the future, a survey said on Friday.

The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan overall index of consumer sentiment fell to 79.9 in March, down from the 81.6 final reading in February. That was below analyst expectations for a reading of 82 and the lowest level for that index since November.

Mar 14, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Losses continue, and other concerns

The ructions in China have had an interesting effect on commodities prices – good for gold, crappy for copper. And more developments in this area should be expected as the market deals with growing weakness and the threat of a deflating credit bubble coming from the massive lending to various sectors in the world’s second-largest economy. Copper has been rather weak of late, but the broader CRB commodities index is actually much higher on the year. This is the biggest divergence since the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, points out Ashraf Laidi, the chief global strategist at City Index in London.

Again, the recent selling has had to do with the Chinese companies using the metal (and iron ore, too) as collateral for cheap dollar financing. So we’ve hit a weird storm here – weak yuan that makes those loans more expensive, and copper falling too, and again, that also messes with those loans. Put that together and you have a few markets moving in directions that are not beneficial to a major counterparty in several of them, for one, and resulting in the kind of activity that tends to turn into a vicious cycle.

Mar 14, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Losses continue, and other concerns

The ructions in China have had an interesting effect on commodities prices – good for gold, crappy for copper. And more developments in this area should be expected as the market deals with growing weakness and the threat of a deflating credit bubble coming from the massive lending to various sectors in the world’s second-largest economy. Copper has been rather weak of late, but the broader CRB commodities index is actually much higher on the year. This is the biggest divergence since the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, points out Ashraf Laidi, the chief global strategist at City Index in London.

Again, the recent selling has had to do with the Chinese companies using the metal (and iron ore, too) as collateral for cheap dollar financing. So we’ve hit a weird storm here – weak yuan that makes those loans more expensive, and copper falling too, and again, that also messes with those loans. Put that together and you have a few markets moving in directions that are not beneficial to a major counterparty in several of them, for one, and resulting in the kind of activity that tends to turn into a vicious cycle.

Mar 12, 2014
via Counterparties

MORNING BID – Copper, China and currencies

Markets start on the back foot this morning, with weakness overseas – and particularly in emerging markets – feeding through to a bit of strain on U.S. futures and a bit of flight to quality to the U.S. bond market.

The outlook for China once again comes into play, with the most recent fears being more corporate defaults in the world’s second-largest economy and the way in which copper imports are used in China as collateral to raise funds. So it’s all nicely intertwined here and has had a detrimental effect on both China’s stocks, stocks in various exchanges around the world, and of course the price of copper, which was down 5 percent in Shanghai.

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the stocks team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He has appeared on Fox Business, CNN International, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the forthcoming book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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