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Jun 22, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Do You Believe in Magic?

The main action for investors is a focus on that same problem – Greece. But hope springs anew on fresh reports of a cash-for-reforms deal in the hours jut before the latest LAST meeting to be held Monday evening Europaland-time.

That’s got markets in a good mood, boosting equities and sending bond prices lower. Perhaps it was the reports about pressures on the Greek banks, more expectations that the loans outstanding won’t be paid on time, and more dire consequences expressed by EU members that shifted things.

Jun 19, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Off the rails on a crazy train

Matters continue to worsen in Greece, and the markets are becoming more sensitive to each sundry rumor about a deal, a lack of a deal, progress or no progress.

There’s now talk about capital controls and worries about bank runs. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman said this morning that what’s currently a liquidity crisis has the chance to turn into a solvency crisis (that is, moving from not having enough money on a given day, to not having enough money…on any day).

Jun 19, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Off the rails on a crazy train

Matters continue to worsen in Greece, and the markets are becoming more sensitive to each sundry rumor about a deal, a lack of a deal, progress or no progress.

There’s now talk about capital controls and worries about bank runs. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman said this morning that what’s currently a liquidity crisis has the chance to turn into a solvency crisis (that is, moving from not having enough money on a given day, to not having enough money…on any day).

Jun 18, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Fitness Buffs Run to Wall Street

The day’s most interesting new stock is Fitbit, which gives investors a chance to invest in running, rather than just running away from Greece’s markets, or something of that type. Fitbit makes wearable fitness tracking devices, so, the little things that go on to your wrist while you’re in the middle of a 10K or doing some other fitness activity (it’s also waterproof, so maybe it even survives muddy obstacle courses). But it also stands as another way in which the United States embraces its extremes, i.e., those who eat copious servings of newfangled hamburgers, and those who run miles at a time to avoid looking like they eat those hamburgers (these are often the same people).

The question some will have is whether the company is likely to remain a going concern, given its competition includes not only other upstarts but also Apple, whose watch – sure to be improved in coming quarters – will probably mimic plenty of Fitbit’s own capabilities. The stock is going to be worth somewhere around $4 billion when it starts trading on Thursday, and this is for an outfit that brought in about $745 million in revenue in 2014 and profits of $132 million. So a large company we’re not discussing here.

Jun 18, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Fitness buffs run to Wall Street

The day’s most interesting new stock is Fitbit, which gives investors a chance to invest in running, rather than just running away from Greece’s markets, or something of that type. Fitbit makes wearable fitness tracking devices, so, the little things that go on to your wrist while you’re in the middle of a 10K or doing some other fitness activity (it’s also waterproof, so maybe it even survives muddy obstacle courses). But it also stands as another way in which the United States embraces its extremes, i.e., those who eat copious servings of newfangled hamburgers, and those who run miles at a time to avoid looking like they eat those hamburgers (these are often the same people).

The question some will have is whether the company is likely to remain a going concern, given its competition includes not only other upstarts but also Apple, whose watch – sure to be improved in coming quarters – will probably mimic plenty of Fitbit’s own capabilities. The stock is going to be worth somewhere around $4 billion when it starts trading on Thursday, and this is for an outfit that brought in about $745 million in revenue in 2014 and profits of $132 million. So a large company we’re not discussing here.

Jun 17, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

How much does Greece matter to the Fed?

The Fed’s meeting is going to conclude this afternoon without much in the way of change – except maybe to its central economic forecasts, which will invariably end up proved incorrect when history is the judge.

The Greek drama continues, meanwhile, with more investors becoming concerned about a disastrous outcome that involves not just a default but a full exit from the euro zone. This outstanding possibility, one that swings to and fro on a daily basis, has some investors thinking it will affect the Fed’s calculations when it looks at the path of interest rates going forward.

Jun 11, 2015

U.S.-based junk bond funds see $2.6 billion in weekly outflows

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Investors in U.S.-based funds yanked $2.6 billion from high-yield “junk” portfolios in the week ended June 10, the most in five weeks, data from Thomson Reuters’ Lipper service showed on Thursday.

The cash withdrawals stemmed from exchange-traded-fund investors pulling capital from the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund, $1.06 billion, and the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF, $762 million, said Jeff Tjornehoj, head of Americas research at Lipper.

Jun 8, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Changes In the Air

We go into the week with the U.S. Treasury market having suffered its worst weekly run in three months; the benchmark 10-year Treasury saw its biggest jump in yield in nearly two years, basically dating back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013.

Naturally, there’s been a lot of talk about the “next” taper tantrum that seems to be developing.

Jun 8, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Change is in the air

We go into the week with the U.S. Treasury market having suffered its worst weekly run in three months; the benchmark 10-year Treasury saw its biggest jump in yield in nearly two years, basically dating back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013.

Naturally, there’s been a lot of talk about the “next” taper tantrum that seems to be developing.

Jun 6, 2015

Wall St. banks say September Fed rate hike looks more likely: Reuters poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street’s top banks expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates in September, followed by another before the end of the year, after Friday’s U.S. jobs report exceeded expectations.

All but two of the 16 firms that responded to Reuters said they expect the Fed will begin raising rates in September. Short-term rate futures, the market’s tool for betting on interest rate expectations, also shifted in favor of a rate increase sooner rather than later after Friday’s jobs figures. For full results from the poll, see

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the U.S. markets team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He is a frequent guest on Reuters TV, and has appeared on CNN International, Fox Business, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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