David's Feed
Apr 9, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

All in the Family Dollar

The best part of the early days of earnings season? Every release is the newest bellwether, and they’re all a signal of the current “trend,” because there’s nothing to act as a contradicting force to only a few data points.

So, the release of Family Dollar Stores figures – where the company said weak sales in February due to weather gave way to a solid March – means, obviously, that everything is bright and sunny on the horizon as spring comes into focus.

Apr 8, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Living in a Kocherlakota world

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its March 17-18 monetary policy meeting, when it dropped the word “patient” from its statement. But it also added another half-step before it moves on raising rates by talking up worries about the labor market and generally making it seem like rate hikes will happen sometime never.

The “bad is good and good is bad” argument has gotten a lot of air time lately, but the expectations for interest-rate increases to come in June, and then September, still appear somewhat aggressive, as economists at RBC point out in commentary.

Apr 8, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Living in a Kocherlakota world

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its March 17-18 monetary policy meeting, when it dropped the word “patient” from its statement. But it also added another half-step before it moves on raising rates by talking up worries about the labor market and generally making it seem like rate hikes will happen sometime never.

The “bad is good and good is bad” argument has gotten a lot of air time lately, but the expectations for interest-rate increases to come in June, and then September, still appear somewhat aggressive, as economists at RBC point out in commentary.

Apr 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Waiting for Mr. Dudley

Earnings do not really get under way until next week, and the few early birds coming through in the next few days, like the usual Alcoa, et al, are not bellwethers of much other than global demand for aluminum.

Which means the Federal Reserve speaking circuit and the coming minutes are probably most in focus. Fed Governor Jerome Powell will speak Wednesday morning on the “challenges of monetary policy,” meaning the central bank’s decision-making process.

Apr 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Waiting for Mr. Dudley

Earnings do not really get under way until next week, and the few early birds coming through in the next few days, like the usual Alcoa, et al, are not bellwethers of much other than global demand for aluminum.

Which means the Federal Reserve speaking circuit and the coming minutes are probably most in focus. Fed Governor Jerome Powell will speak Wednesday morning on the “challenges of monetary policy,” meaning the central bank’s decision-making process.

Apr 3, 2015

U.S. Treasuries rally, equity futures drop after jobs data

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices
rallied, the U.S. dollar fell and stock index futures fell on
Friday after weaker-than-expected March U.S. jobs data.

U.S. Labor Department data showed employers added just
126,000 jobs in March, the smallest monthly increase in more
than a year. The figure was well below forecasts for a gain of
245,000, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Apr 3, 2015

U.S. Treasuries rally, futures drop after jobs data

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices rallied, the dollar fell and equity futures stumbled on Friday after weaker-than-expected March U.S. jobs data.

Labor Department data showed U.S. employers added just 126,000 jobs in March, the fewest in more than a year. The figure was well below expectations for a gain of 245,000, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Mar 26, 2015

Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors gets federal subpoena

By Jennifer Ablan and David Gaffen

(Reuters) – Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors Inc told clients
earlier this week that it has been subpoenaed by federal
prosecutors and regulators seeking information about its trading
activities in certain securities, according to a letter seen by
Reuters on Thursday.

The firm said it has not been charged with wrongdoing and
that it is cooperating with the U.S. Attorney’s office in New
Jersey and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Mar 26, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Moving averages, moving targets

It’s starting to get difficult to keep track of the reasons for big selloffs, especially when the bond market and stock market engage in an all-out barf-fest simultaneously. The markets remain in a vacuum. Major earnings don’t start for a few more weeks, and the key employment data isn’t out for another week as well. That has left a bit of a void, which investors are filling with concerns about the dollar (if it’s strengthening, it hurts earnings; if it’s weakening, it’s because of worries about the economy) and worries about the economy.

Wednesday’s figures on durable goods orders were sufficiently terrible that they can’t be discounted so easily (this has become something of a trend). With investors not really showing up for the day’s five-year auction, everyone tucked tail and ran. We’ll have to see if there’s more of the same for the seven-year note auction later in the day. Lately, foreign central bank buyers haven’t been showing up en masse for auctions as expected – Richard Leong lays it out in a story that notes a number of reasons for this, but their concerns about their own currencies is part of the issue. This could contribute to another decline in foreign central bank holdings – that data comes later in the day.

Mar 26, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Moving averages, moving targets

It’s starting to get difficult to keep track of the reasons for big selloffs, especially when the bond market and stock market engage in an all-out barf-fest simultaneously. The markets remain in a vacuum. Major earnings don’t start for a few more weeks, and the key employment data isn’t out for another week as well. That has left a bit of a void, which investors are filling with concerns about the dollar (if it’s strengthening, it hurts earnings; if it’s weakening, it’s because of worries about the economy) and worries about the economy.

Wednesday’s figures on durable goods orders were sufficiently terrible that they can’t be discounted so easily (this has become something of a trend). With investors not really showing up for the day’s five-year auction, everyone tucked tail and ran. We’ll have to see if there’s more of the same for the seven-year note auction later in the day. Lately, foreign central bank buyers haven’t been showing up en masse for auctions as expected – Richard Leong lays it out in a story that notes a number of reasons for this, but their concerns about their own currencies is part of the issue. This could contribute to another decline in foreign central bank holdings – that data comes later in the day.

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the U.S. markets team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He is a frequent guest on Reuters TV, and has appeared on CNN International, Fox Business, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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