David's Feed
May 11, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

The big one, Elizabeth

A host of factors will contribute to the market’s action this week, including a smattering of domestic news and some bigger issues out of Greece, China and other parts of the world. With bond yields having backed up significantly lately and the dollar still not breaking out of recent weakness, the path is unclear.

Upcoming data includes the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday and retail sales for April a day later. Retail sales are expected to have fallen in April, but to have risen slightly when auto sales are excluded. It will be important to watch consumer-related numbers in the coming weeks as the second quarter wears on.

May 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Dislocations, jobs and the bond market

Friday’s jobs report will possibly alleviate a bit of a confounding period in the market, where the Treasury curve, particularly the long end, has been under intense selling pressure in a counter-intuitive move, seeing as how data has been largely lackluster.

The data, including trade figures, manufacturing surveys, and most recently, the ADP report, suggest a negative first quarter of growth followed by a rebound (and it feels like we say this every year) in the spring and summer months.

May 7, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Dislocations, jobs and the bond market

Friday’s jobs report will possibly alleviate a bit of a confounding period in the market, where the Treasury curve, particularly the long end, has been under intense selling pressure in a counter-intuitive move, seeing as how data has been largely lackluster.

The data, including trade figures, manufacturing surveys, and most recently, the ADP report, suggest a negative first quarter of growth followed by a rebound (and it feels like we say this every year) in the spring and summer months.

May 6, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

The popular shorts in the spotlight

Tesla’s earnings come today at an interesting time for the market. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed below its 100-day moving average amid weakness in the smaller names trading in U.S. markets.

This has been a period of tumult for markets, even if index levels sort of disguise that (really, the S&P is doing pretty good). The question is whether the smaller stocks are a harbinger of something bigger in the U.S. economy, or if it’s just ongoing jitters related to the unwind of several popular trades, more recently, long bonds, long euro, long U.S. stocks, short a lot of other stuff.

Apr 30, 2015

Warren Buffett losing some mojo on his economic ‘moats’

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Warren Buffett has carved out a core stock-picking strategy of investing in companies with strong economic “moats,” businesses that have built, fortified and generated success from well-known brands that make it difficult for them to succumb to competitive forces.

But for a number of holdings in his stock portfolio, the moats may be drying up and the walls could be breached.

Apr 27, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Apple on Watch

The earnings picture has improved since the dismal forecasts put forth as the first quarter waned, but the overall outlook isn’t all that strong, with year-over-year growth negative and more than half the companies that have reported missing revenue estimates.

The dollar has proved to be a real bite to results as well, judging by the remarks of Procter & Gamble, Intel, and many other companies. With this in mind, one wonders if Apple is riding to the rescue of earnings season, shifting the current blended negative year-over-year growth (down 0.9 percent, much better than it had been) into positive territory and making things overall look a lot better than they really are.

Apr 27, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Apple on watch

The earnings picture has improved since the dismal forecasts put forth as the first quarter waned, but the overall outlook isn’t all that strong, with year-over-year growth negative and more than half the companies that have reported missing revenue estimates.

The dollar has proved to be a real bite to results as well, judging by the remarks of Procter & Gamble, Intel, and many other companies. With this in mind, one wonders if Apple is riding to the rescue of earnings season, shifting the current blended negative year-over-year growth (down 0.9 percent, much better than it had been) into positive territory and making things overall look a lot better than they really are.

Apr 22, 2015
via Morning Bid with David Gaffen

Liquidity in a dry spell

The market finds itself in something of a standstill. It’s been a long time since the S&P 500 hit a new high and the Nasdaq has been knocking on the door of its all-time record for months now. It’s fair to characterize the trade as “directionless,” with the most notable feature of the weekly data from the AAII surveys being how big the neutral sentiment is (insert “shrug” emoji here).

This situation is likely to persist. The market will see scores of earnings results in the next few days, from Altera to 3M to Amazon and everything else that isn’t at the beginning of the alphabet. Earnings so far have brought a number of disappointments and signs of slowing sales thanks to weak-sauce global demand (DuPont for example). Companies that can’t seem to get out of their own way (IBM and Yahoo), a few that look shaky (McDonald’s), and others that remain robust on a number of levels (Broadcom, Kimberly-Clark and Amgen).

Apr 19, 2015

Insight – For short-sellers in U.S. stocks, the agony just piles on

NEW YORK (Reuters) – In January 2014, veteran short-seller Bill Fleckenstein said he was readying a new fund to bet on falling stock prices. More than a year later, he’s still waiting to launch that fund.

Despite lacklustre U.S. economic data, a world grappling with slow growth, concern that Greece and Ukraine could default on their debts, the U.S. stock market has been more than resilient. Even after a selloff on Friday, major indices are less than two percent from all-time highs and volatility measurements have been close to their lowest levels for 2015.

Apr 19, 2015

For short-sellers in U.S. stocks, the agony just piles on

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) – In January 2014, veteran
short-seller Bill Fleckenstein said he was readying a new fund
to bet on falling stock prices. More than a year later, he’s
still waiting to launch that fund.

Despite lackluster U.S. economic data, a world grappling
with slow growth, concern that Greece and Ukraine could default
on their debts, the U.S. stock market has been more than
resilient. Even after a selloff on Friday, major indices are
less than two percent from all-time highs and volatility
measurements have been close to their lowest levels for 2015.

    • About David

      "David Gaffen oversees the U.S. markets team, having joined Reuters in May 2009. He spent four years at the Wall Street Journal, where he was the original writer of the web site's MarketBeat blog. He is a frequent guest on Reuters TV, and has appeared on CNN International, Fox Business, NPR, and assorted other media and is the author of the book "Never Buy Another Stock Again.""
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