John Kerry has not yet saved — or destroyed — the Middle East
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry appear to have run the table in Middle East diplomacy. An interim nuclear agreement with Iran has been reached, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are underway and peace talks to end Syria’s civil war are slated to begin in January.
For an administration under siege domestically, press coverage declaring the triumph of Obama diplomacy over Bush-era militarism is a political godsend.
But talk in Washington of a legacy-defining breakthrough for Obama is overstated and premature. So are the apocalyptic warnings of Iranian hegemony now coming from Jerusalem and Riyadh.
Fundamental differences must be overcome before a comprehensive nuclear pact with Iran, an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement or a Syria ceasefire can be brokered. In all three cases, the White House and Kerry ignored, avoided or fudged thorny issues — and declared success.
First of all, Kerry and the White House deserve praise for simply reaching this point. Defying deep skepticism in Washington and the region, they embarked on risky diplomatic overtures that ranged from Kerry’s quixotic public effort to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement to a secret meeting between American and Iranian officials in Oman last March.
The momentum created by these interim agreements could lead to final settlements. Strategically, the Obama administration’s embrace of diplomacy is a welcome shift from a long-running American tendency to resort to military force in the Middle East.
But enormous obstacles must be overcome in all three cases before they can be declared diplomatic triumphs.
In future Iran talks, the core unresolved issue is whether Tehran will be able to have a limited, tightly monitored nuclear energy program that enriches uranium to 3.5 percent, far below nuclear weapons level. Officials from Iran’s newly elected, relatively moderate government say it would be politically impossible for them to accept an agreement that does not include some form of nuclear energy program. This is a right, they argue, that all countries have under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Skeptics in Congress and Israel insist that Tehran’s previous cheating means it should have no nuclear program at all. White House officials appear to be willing to accept a small, exhaustively monitored Iranian nuclear energy program. Kerry denied that the interim agreement recognized Iran’s right to enrichment but the interim pact states that would be the goal of a final agreement.
“This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program,” the agreement states, “with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program.”
It remains unclear whether the administration can convince key congressional Democrats who are deeply skeptical of Iran — such as Senators Charles Schumer (D-N.Y) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) — that some Iranian enrichment is tenable. Israeli officials have been adamant that no enrichment should occur inside Iran.
In many ways, the interim Iran agreement Kerry hammered out in Geneva last weekend is similar to his resurrection of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks last summer. The interim Iranian agreement froze Tehran’s nuclear program and committed both sides to six months of negotiations. But Kerry has not crafted a final, far-reaching pact that rolls back Iran’s nuclear program or normalizes its relations with the world.
In August, Kerry convinced the Israelis and Palestinians to engage in nine months of final status negotiations. But the historic disagreements that have divided the two sides for decades remained unresolved.
A short-term deal brought the two parties back to the table. Israel agreed to release 104 Palestinian prisoners jailed since before the 1993 Oslo Accords. In exchange, the Palestinians agreed not to seek recognition as an independent nation from the United Nations during the course of the negotiations.
Core underlying disputes — Israeli settlement building, Palestinian claims for a right of return and the status of Jerusalem — all remain unresolved. The two sides even failed to agree on whether Israel’s pre-1967 borders would be the basis of negotiations.
Since the talks began in August, they have made little headway, according to officials from both sides. On Tuesday, Nabil Shaath, a senior Palestinian official, called the negotiations “a dialogue of the deaf,” Israel’s Army Radio reported.
Meanwhile, peace talks on Syria that are scheduled to begin in January face long odds as well. Again, the parties are coming to the table with an unresolved central dispute — here, President Bashar al-Assad’s future role in Syria.
The government insists that Assad remain in power. Rebels say his departure is a pre-condition for peace. In a further complication, the opposition is badly fractured and it’s unclear which opposition leaders will participate.
Throughout history, talks that resulted in historic breakthroughs confronted seemingly impossible odds. The 1978 Camp David Peace Accords were unimaginable before they occurred. The 1995 Dayton Peace Accord that ended the war in Bosnia seemed inconceivable as well.
For now, Obama and Kerry have shown themselves to be masters of setting the stage for breakthroughs. They have deftly maneuvered around fundamental issues that scuttled past peace initiatives. Hopefully, they will achieve landmark accords but for now vast divides remain.
This post was updated and revised at 12:45pm on Friday, November 29, 2013.
PHOTO (TOP): Secretary of State John Kerry steps off of his aircraft as he arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland, from London, November 25, 2013. REUTERS/Carolyn Kaster/Pool
PHOTO (INSERT): President Barack Obama makes a statement about an agreement reached with Iran on its nuclear program at the White House in Washington November 23, 2013. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts