Opinion

David Rohde

Newest victim of congressional wrecking ball: Iran policy

By David Rohde
January 15, 2014

By design or accident, it is increasingly clear that the centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s second-term foreign policy is a nuclear agreement with Iran. Whether Obama can succeed, however, now depends on Congress staying out of the negotiations.

Over the last few weeks, 16 Democratic senators have supported a bill that would impose new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. They have defied the White House’s intense campaign to block Congress from adding new conditions to any deal.

In this way, Obama is the victim of an increasingly craven Washington — where members of his own party are abandoning him out of political expedience. At the same time, the White House is also a victim of its sometimes erratic responses to events in the Middle East.

For the last six years, the president has repeatedly declared that he does not want the United States entangled in another conflict in the Middle East. As a result, allies and enemies at home and abroad, from members of Congress to Israeli and Iranian hawks, question his commitment to use force against Iran if negotiations fail.

Experts warn that the stakes are enormous. Political opportunism, maximalist positions and mixed messages could take on a life of their own, scuttle the talks and inadvertently spark military action.

George Perkovich, director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, lambasted the bill’s congressional sponsors in Foreign Affairs. He accused Senators Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) of reckless grandstanding.

“The Menendez-Kirk-Schumer bill may be politically expedient,” Perkovich wrote, “but it is also entirely unnecessary and dangerous.”

Much of the Democrats’ maneuvering is old-fashioned political posturing. All the Democratic officeholders now supporting the sanctions bill, David Weigel noted in Slate Tuesday, face tough re-election battles. Rejecting calls from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to support the new sanctions bill could make them vulnerable to attacks of capitulating to Iran. So far, Democrats from “safer, bluer” turf — including Senators Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) — are not supporting the bill.

Ambition also plays a role here. Schumer, who is safe in New York, is looking to succeed Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.) as majority leader. His chief rival for this job, Senator Dick Durban (D-Ill.), who was the senior senator from Illinois when Obama was the junior senator, is backing the administration.

Democrats who support the new sanctions bill claim that their goal is to give Obama greater leverage in talks with Tehran. But Perkovich and other experts warn that the proposed sanctions threaten to spark a tit-for-tat cycle of escalation.

As American hard-liners saber rattle, Iranian hard-liners are saber rattling back. If Congress does pass the new sanctions bill, a senior member of the Iranian parliament has threatened, his nation would respond by beginning to enrich uranium to 60 percent — a level close to that needed for a nuclear bomb.

The major unresolved issue — and the biggest threat to a comprehensive deal — is whether Iran should be allowed any enrichment capability.

The White House has signaled that it would accept a tightly monitored program in Iran — one that enriches uranium only to the level used for energy and research.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hawkish members of Congress argue that increased sanctions will force the regime to give up enrichment or collapse.

Reza Marashi, research director of the National Iranian American Council, an advocacy group that supports the nuclear talks, said it is political suicide for any Iranian official to accept no enrichment. Tehran’s hard-liners would accuse them of capitulation to the United States and Israel.

“I don’t know any Iran analyst — except for those on the far, far right,” Marashi told me in a telephone interview Tuesday, “who think that zero enrichment is possible.”

Obama has also made foreign policy missteps. As I wrote last week the administration’s shifting positions on Syria — from demanding President Bashar al-Assad “must go” to declaring “red lines” on chemical weapons use and then backing away from military action — has hurt his credibility in the region.

Perkovich said domestic missteps have played a role as well. The interim agreement with Iran was announced just as the Obamacare website began its botched rollout. Congressional Democrats facing tough re-election battles decided they simply could not trust the White House.

“The timing was disastrous [to Congress],” Perkovich told me in a telephone interview Tuesday. “They thought ‘these guys are totally incompetent.’”

In addition, the president’s disinterest — or inability — to develop close relationships with members of Congress is now coming back to haunt him. As former Defense Secretary Bill Gates noted in his new memoir, Duty, Obama and President George W. Bush each loathed dealing with Congress.

“Both, I believe, detested Congress,” Gates writes, “and resented having to deal with it, including members of their own party.”

Perkovich argues that Congress should allow negotiations to succeed or fail. A deal that blocks Iran from obtaining a weapon would bolster the nuclear non-proliferation regime, in place since the 1970s, and reduce tensions in the Middle East. A collapse in the talks would weaken the non-proliferation regime and even spark a U.S.-Israeli military strike on Iran.

More decisive leadership from Obama and less opportunism from Democratic senators will not magically stabilize the Middle East. But there is no need for Democratic senators to add to the chaos for political gain.

 

PHOTO (TOP): President Barack Obama speaks during his year-end news conference in the White House briefing room in Washington, December 20, 2013. REUTERS/Larry Downing

PHOTO (INSERT 1): Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks during a news conference following the EU+3-Iran talks in Geneva, November 24, 2013. REUTERS/Ruben Sprich

PHOTO (INSERT 2): President Barack Obama and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at a joint news conference in Jerusalem, March 20, 2013. REUTERS/Larry Downing

Comments
7 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

I have to admit, David Rhodes is 100% on this one.
I hope members of Congress dont screw this up, like they have on so many other things.

Posted by KyleDexter | Report as abusive
 

An agreement with Iran might prevent a war which is not in the best interest of certain US industries. Our military producers would love another war. There is no free market for weapons so you make lots of money, and no one in the US really cares about human life except that it’s a commodity to be managed. So, it’s likely we won’t have an agreement, so we can have another war, so we can make some people richer than they already are. It’s the american dream.

Posted by brotherkenny4 | Report as abusive
 

He’s a lame duck. Domestically and internationally, everybody knows his promises and threats are meaningless. And without that, you have nothing. He wants to be the nice guy president, that everybody pats on the back for solving all the problems in the world. He’s arrogant and incredibly naive. You don’t solve a problem like Iran, that’s been going on for decades, by being nice and hoping they will be nice back… because they probably won’t be. Many people in the world see ‘nice’ as a weakness, not a strength. They see it as an opportunity. The political faces in Iran are puppets. Everybody knows that the extremist military is really calling the shots. Everybody hated Bush, but he at least had the guts to say that he didn’t care if his decisions made him less popular… He felt he had to do what was the right thing, popular or not. That’s how you have to lead. You’re never going to make everybody happy, that is completely impossible. What the public wants and what should be done, are two totally different things… because the majority of the public, is clueless and living in a fantasy world. But Obama bases his whole strategy on trying to be the big hero rock-star, loved by everyone. It doesn’t work. Unless your goal is to get invited to George Clooney’s for dinner, then I guess it works.

Posted by dd606 | Report as abusive
 

As a non-American I find the concept of Congress strange and unusual. Watching the live sessions I am convinced that it is their real purpose to make the real politicians uncomfortable.

Posted by BidnisMan | Report as abusive
 

I see this whole affair as an indicator that the American congress does not work for the American people. They either do as their told by lobbyist, or play political games amongst themselves to keep the main stream media entertained. The American people have no government of their own anymore. The USA perished and was replaced by the USCA.

Posted by tmc | Report as abusive
 

I like theatre, especially plays with celebrities.
1. It is planned, from A to Z, that Democratic Congress members must distance themselves from unpopular Obama. Goal of Dem Congressmen is to win 2014 elections. The same was with Rep Congressmen and Bush in 2006 and 2008.
Btw, the same mechanism is with Iranian politicians and its public.
2. The deal with Iran WAS effected. It is polished now. Israel and Saudi Arabia cannot derail it.
3. United States unilateral military action in Iran or anywhere else is out of the question. In Syria Putin’s thinly veiled threat of nuclear weapons usage and WW3 worked. It will work in Iran too. Putin administration is capable of limited nuclear exchange (because of US supremacy in conventional weapons, they have first use military doctrine). It is also politically OK for Russian society. It would be disaster for any US politician or party.
4. The only way for US to contain China was to cause another Sino-Soviet split. Now it is too late.
Russia alone is easy to starve, you just need 3 years of oil for 50 USD per barrel. China alone is military vulnerable. The perfect duo is unstoppable.

Posted by Wantunbiasednew | Report as abusive
 

The US Congress (a.k.a. The US Knesset) will not stay out of Middle East foreign policy until Israel tells them to.

Posted by EconCassandra | Report as abusive
 

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