Deepti's Feed
Oct 28, 2015
via MacroScope

ECB’s ‘whole menu’ bereft of new dishes


ECB President Mario Draghi’s ‘whole menu’ of monetary policy options to spur lending and boost euro area inflation from below zero appears to have few new dishes, if any at all.

A strong majority of forecasters say the ECB will announce in December an extension to its asset buying programme beyond the originally planned end date of September 2016, and maybe increase the size of its monthly purchases.

Oct 22, 2015
via MacroScope

More ECB QE? Perhaps best when the Fed raises


Those clamouring for the European Central Bank to ramp up its 60 billion euro per month stimulus programme will have to wait until December.

It just so happens that is not only when the ECB next takes a look at its growth and inflation forecasts, but it’s also when economists still expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Oct 15, 2015

ECB to extend QE beyond September 2016, but monthly total to hold: poll

By Sumanta Dey and Deepti Govind

(Reuters) – The European Central Bank will extend its stimulus program beyond September 2016, according to economists in a Reuters poll who were less decided on whether it would spend more than the current 60 billion euros a month in bond purchases.

Launched just over six months ago, the ECB’s quantitative easing program has so far done little to boost inflation, drive growth or even keep the euro low for a sustained period, the goals the central bank had hoped the stimulus would achieve.

Sep 29, 2015
via MacroScope

U.S. manufacturing flashing warning signs


U.S. manufacturing may be in trouble. Nearly all key indicators measuring the health of manufacturers in the world’s largest economy have disappointed over the past year.

If manufacturing remains a solid leading indicator of where the economy is headed, this spells bad news for the wider economy and prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike any time soon.

Sep 22, 2015

Fed likely to raise U.S. interest rates in December – Reuters poll

By Deepti Govind and Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve likely will pull the trigger and hike interest rates in December after taking a pass last week, according to economists polled by Reuters who assigned a 60 percent probability of it happening.

For months one of the most debated topics in global financial markets, the timing of the first rate hike in nearly a decade in the world’s largest economy has proven a tough call for forecasters and traders.

Sep 4, 2015
via MacroScope

Reuters polls dashboard of key data ahead of Sept FOMC meeting


As anticipation builds ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 meeting, the decision on whether rates will go up or not rests squarely on incoming economic data, according to Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

There are about 10 key releases in the run-up to the meeting, 6 this week that together could swing expectations for a hike this month, which still appear to be resting on a knife’s edge.

Aug 31, 2015

No ‘viable’ alternative to QE seen for the ECB: Reuters poll

By Deepti Govind and Rahul Karunakar

(Reuters) – The European Central Bank may be running out of road.

At the start of the year, the euro was plummeting and a fall in oil prices was supposed to give an additional boost to consumers in addition to its quantitative easing juicing the markets.

Now the euro is headed back up to where it was trading near the start of the year and inflation expectations are plummeting once again, with the latest print showing the headline number unchanged at just 0.2 percent in August.

Aug 20, 2015
via MacroScope

Inventory pile underscores risk Philly Fed could go the Empire State way


“Nothing to see here, folks” was the reaction most analysts had to a completely shocking report earlier this week that showed manufacturing business conditions in New York State deteriorated at their fastest pace since the start of the financial crisis.

Economists went on to dispel concerns after the the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Index unexpectedly plunged almost 20 points to -14.92 that any similar weakness might turn up in the more closely-watched Philadelphia Fed data, due later on Thursday.

Aug 13, 2015

Euro zone growth’s momentum weakening; inflation to hit target in 2017: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Euro zone economic growth has slowed since the start of the year and inflation probably won’t reach the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target ceiling until at least 2017, a Reuters poll found.

The predictions come after six months of European Central Bank stimulus, making them disappointing reading for policymakers struggling to bolster growth and produce any meaningful rise in prices.

Jul 30, 2015

RBI to hold rates on Aug 4, some see cut by year-end – Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to loosen policy before October, particularly with retail inflation at an eight-month high after food prices spiked, a Reuters poll of economists found.

All but four of 51 forecasters polled expect the RBI to hold its key repo rate at 7.25 percent on Aug. 4. It has already cut the rate three times this year to loosen credit and boost slowing growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

    • About Deepti

      "Deepti Govind is a Specialist Polling Correspondent on the Reuters Polls team and is responsible for leading coverage of the global economy and central bank monetary policy since April 2014. She first joined Reuters in 2008 as a correspondent covering U.S. small and mid-cap technology stocks. Deepti holds a journalism degree from Madras University."
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