U.S. manufacturing may be in trouble. Nearly all key indicators measuring the health of manufacturers in the world’s largest economy have disappointed over the past year.
If manufacturing remains a solid leading indicator of where the economy is headed, this spells bad news for the wider economy and prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike any time soon.
(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve likely will pull the trigger and hike interest rates in December after taking a pass last week, according to economists polled by Reuters who assigned a 60 percent probability of it happening.
For months one of the most debated topics in global financial markets, the timing of the first rate hike in nearly a decade in the world’s largest economy has proven a tough call for forecasters and traders.
As anticipation builds ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 meeting, the decision on whether rates will go up or not rests squarely on incoming economic data, according to Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
There are about 10 key releases in the run-up to the meeting, 6 this week that together could swing expectations for a hike this month, which still appear to be resting on a knife’s edge.
(Reuters) – The European Central Bank may be running out of road.
At the start of the year, the euro was plummeting and a fall in oil prices was supposed to give an additional boost to consumers in addition to its quantitative easing juicing the markets.
Now the euro is headed back up to where it was trading near the start of the year and inflation expectations are plummeting once again, with the latest print showing the headline number unchanged at just 0.2 percent in August.
“Nothing to see here, folks” was the reaction most analysts had to a completely shocking report earlier this week that showed manufacturing business conditions in New York State deteriorated at their fastest pace since the start of the financial crisis.
Economists went on to dispel concerns after the the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Index unexpectedly plunged almost 20 points to -14.92 that any similar weakness might turn up in the more closely-watched Philadelphia Fed data, due later on Thursday.
BENGALURU (Reuters) – Euro zone economic growth has slowed since the start of the year and inflation probably won’t reach the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target ceiling until at least 2017, a Reuters poll found.
The predictions come after six months of European Central Bank stimulus, making them disappointing reading for policymakers struggling to bolster growth and produce any meaningful rise in prices.
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to loosen policy before October, particularly with retail inflation at an eight-month high after food prices spiked, a Reuters poll of economists found.
All but four of 51 forecasters polled expect the RBI to hold its key repo rate at 7.25 percent on Aug. 4. It has already cut the rate three times this year to loosen credit and boost slowing growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
BENGALURU, July 30 (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of India is
unlikely to loosen policy before October, particularly with
retail inflation at an eight-month high after food prices
spiked, a Reuters poll of economists found.
All but four of 51 forecasters polled expect the RBI to hold
its key repo rate at 7.25 percent on Aug. 4. It has
already cut the rate three times this year to loosen credit and
boost slowing growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
British wage growth will outstrip the Bank of England’s forecast this year but that doesn’t mean the first rate hike will come sooner.
For two years now, BoE Governor Mark Carney has drilled into the forecasting community and markets that a pickup in the pace of wage growth would be a prerequisite for hiking Bank Rate.
BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging Asian central banks are expected to cut interest rates again in the coming months, but economists polled by Reuters are doubtful the moves will significantly boost growth or inflation.
The findings echo results from earlier this week in Reuters surveys of more than 250 economists in Europe and North America who also expect more easing.