Opinion

Edward Hadas

Don’t be afraid of deflation

Edward Hadas
Jan 29, 2014 15:43 UTC

Christine Lagarde says deflation is an “ogre which must be fought decisively.” The managing director of the International Monetary Fund is merely dramatising the current conventional wisdom, but she is wrong.

Lagarde did not explain why she thought deflation was so dangerous. Most likely, she had three commonly-made arguments in mind.

First, deflation might make a tragic debt cycle more likely. The fear is not totally irrational; a generalised price decrease can lead to economic disaster. The American economist Irving Fisher described the toxic cycle: prices fall, debts go bad, banks collapse, businesses fail, desperate workers take pay cuts and then companies cut prices even more. The downward spiral lasts until something happens – war, anarchy or a new monetary order.

Fisher wrote in 1932, during the Great Depression. Then the consumer price index declined by 27 percent over a little more than three years, as output and employment shrivelled. That experience, though, was unusual.

In a 2004 study, academics Andrew Atkeson and Patrick J Kehoe looked at a century’s worth of price and output trends in 17 countries. They identified 73 five-year periods of price decline and found “virtually no evidence” of any link between deflation and decreased output. The record of contemporary Japan – often cited as an example of the dangers of deflation – fits with that not-at-all alarming pattern.

Bitcoin repeats gold-standard errors

Edward Hadas
Jan 22, 2014 15:07 UTC

I cannot judge whether bitcoin represents a technological breakthrough, but I am confident that the pseudo-currency’s popularity shows widespread economic amnesia. If bitcoin ever became a real currency, it would suffer from the crippling problems of the gold standard.

The underlying problem is the belief that the electronic token’s independence from the government is a good thing. This libertarian notion could hardly be more wrong. Money is a common good for the whole society, and in the contemporary world governments are the pre-eminent social guardians.

It is true that under dire circumstances people might have to resort to an inferior monetary substitute. If a government collapsed or totally trashed the monetary system, then some privately issued money could be the least bad alternative. In such apocalyptic times, though, a software protocol which relies on secure electronic communications would not be first choice. Gold, which is tangible and not subject to hacking, is more plausible. So are old baseball cards.

Madoff/subprime – spot the difference

Edward Hadas
Jan 15, 2014 15:36 UTC

Bernard Madoff still has some magic. The public finds anything connected to the fraudster’s case fascinating, from a prison interview to JPMorgan’s agreement last week to pay $2.3 billion for Madoff-related sins. And why not? Madoff was a grandmaster of the confidence trick. But there is more to it than that. His way of doing business was alarmingly close to the perfectly legal practices which brought down the financial system in 2008.

To see that, compare Madoff to a hypothetical pre-crisis hedge fund manager – one with a special interest in U.S. subprime residential mortgage securities. The common tale starts with a commitment to provide higher returns than the economy can safely offer to financial investors. Both Madoff and the hedgie took in funds without making any specific promises, but their investors’ expectations were lofty.

Madoff, of course, knew that he could not live up to those expectations. That makes him smarter than the hedgie, who was either foolish, if he thought American house prices would keep rising for many years; or arrogant, if he was confident that he could sell out before the losses hit.

An early obituary for bitcoin

Edward Hadas
Jan 8, 2014 15:09 UTC

Bitcoin is not over yet. But the pseudo-currency is close enough to collapse to merit an early retrospective.

My prediction is controversial. Many fervent fans are persuaded that this government-free currency is for real. Their ardour may keep it going for a while, but equally bitcoin could disappear very quickly – that’s the way with speculative bubbles. So now is the moment to learn some economic lessons before the whole phenomenon is forgotten. Here are five.

Money without government appeals to people without law.

Legal tender has the backing of the issuing state. The government has a proprietary interest in maintaining a reliable currency. It also has the necessary powers to do so. It can regulate lending institutions, pursue fraud and create new money to keep the system afloat.

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