U.S. Treasuries rally on weak economic data
NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) – Treasuries prices rose on Tuesday after data on U.S. housing starts and industry output pointed to slow economic growth early in the second quarter and accommodative monetary policy in the months ahead.
A 10.6 percent drop in April housing starts and flat U.S. industrial output pointed to more months of accommodative monetary policy, a constructive outlook for U.S. Treasuries as long as inflation and inflation expectations remain low.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR rose 10/32 in price, its yield moving through resistance at 3.14 percent to stand at 3.10 percent, the lowest since early December.
The low cost of financing drew corporate issuers to market. After $9.1 billion in high-grade corporate deals hit the market on Monday, corporate issuance heated up again with a dozen deals already in Tuesday’s pipeline, half of them of benchmark size, according to IFR.
The economic data “added to the market’s sense that the economy is in a slower growth mode,” said Cary Leahey, managing director and senior economist at Decision Economics.
“Whatever rebound is unfolding in the second quarter will fall short of 3 percent growth and if growth falls short of 3 percent, the Fed will be disappointed and will postpone taking even baby steps toward tightening monetary policy,” he said.
While the weak industrial output, including the first drop in factory production in 10 months, was more the exception to the rule, the two reports still offered “further evidence that the recovery remains pretty modest,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
Treasuries turn higher on weak housing starts
NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries turned higher on Tuesday after the government reported weaker U.S. housing starts in April than economists had forecast.
The Commerce Department said housing starts fell 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 523,000 units, though March’s starts were revised up to a 585,000-unit pace from the previously reported rate of 549,000 units.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note US10YT=RR, which was slightly lower in early dealings, was up 2/32 after the report, its yield at 3.134 percent.
“The housing report showed the housing sector is bouncing along a very long bottom and added to the market’s sense that the economy is in a slower growth mode,” said Cary Leahey, managing director and senior economist at Decision Economics.
“Whatever rebound is unfolding in the second quarter will fall short of 3 percent growth and if growth falls short of 3 percent, the Fed will be disappointed and will postpone taking even baby steps toward tightening monetary policy,” he said.
Jitters related to Greece’s debt situation also contributed to the bid for safe-haven U.S. debt. Euro zone finance ministers have hinted they may ask Greece’s private creditors to extend the maturities on their bonds. It was the first time ministers have said they would consider such a move which would buy Athens more time to pay down its debt.
Lower stock index futures, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street, also added luster to safe-haven U.S. debt. (Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Treasuries flat as euro rallies, stocks firm
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries were flat on Monday, aided by a steady appetite for safe-haven U.S. government debt despite modest gains in riskier assets.
Stocks, which had opened lower, were mainly in the plus column .SPX.DJI.IXIC near midday as the euro rallied.
“The Dow (Jones industrial average) turned positive from the overnight rout,” said Tom DiGaloma, managing director of government securities at Oppenheimer & Co in New York. “It appears some ‘risk on’ trade is back.”
The euro’s rally from a seven-week low was one example of the “risk on” trade, but the euro zone currency’s gains were expected to be limited given doubt that a European Union finance ministers meeting this week would clarify Europe’s debt outlook.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said restructuring Greece’s debt would damage the euro zone’s credibility and the arrest of International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges amplified the uncertainty about the euro zone outlook.
That uncertainly discouraged selling of U.S. government debt. Most Treasuries were unchanged on the day. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yielded 3.17 percent.
The IMF managing director was arrested in New York on Sunday, a day before he was scheduled to join euro zone finance ministers to discuss the zone’s debt crisis. Greece has been struggling to meet the terms of a 110-billion-euro European Union/IMF bailout last year.
Caution on risk supports shorter maturities
NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened slightly on Monday as long-dated securities posted narrow losses and shorter maturities were unchanged on the day, the latter aided by a bid for safe-haven U.S. government debt.
A weaker opening on Wall Street .SPX.DJI.IXIC, concerns about the euro zone debt crisis, and news of the arrest of IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn discouraged selling of shorter-dated U.S. government debt.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR and 30-year bonds US30YT=RR each slipped 1/32 in price, yielding 3.18 percent and 4.31 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, two-, five- and seven-year Treasuries were unchanged.
“Greece’s budget failures are front and center and (the Strauss-Kahn arrest) had stocks in negative territory,” ,” said Tom DiGaloma, managing director of government securities at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York.
The arrest of IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn in New York on charges of attempted rape initially added to the uncertainty about the euro zone’s debt crisis.
But France’s RMC radio said Strauss-Kahn’s lawyers said he had an alibi and was at a restaurant having lunch with his daughter at the time he was alleged to be sexually assaulting a hotel maid. For further details, please see [nLDE74F1FD]
Riskier assets appeared to trim losses after that report and U.S. Treasuries erased early gains.
Bonds gain as stock slide spurs safety bid
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Treasuries prices rose on Friday, helped by stock losses, Fed purchases of Treasuries, and relief U.S. inflation data did not come in above forecast.
Gains in the overall Consumer Price Index abated a bit in April, possibly giving the Federal Reserve a longer lease on its accommodative monetary policy.
“The Fed’s buyback, the lack of a real ‘surprise’ in the CPI, and weakness in domestic equities all drove bond prices higher,” said Ian Lyngen, strategist at CRT Capital Group.
Investors outside the bond market turned defensive over worries about the euro zone’s sovereign debt problems and the mid-year end of the Fed’s second phase of buying U.S. Treasuries to help spur investment and economic growth.
“There’s some poetic irony to how yields have responded to the Fed’s bond purchases; since the Fed began buying, 10-year yields have risen from a low of 2.5 percent,” said Wilmer Stith, fixed-income portfolio manager at Baltimore, Md.-based MTB Investment Advisors.
The drop in bond yields that the Fed sought began, instead, when the market began anticipating the U.S. central bank would announce another round of quantitative easing, Stith said. The rise in yields that followed the actual announcement occurred as the economy strengthened, the Fed’s desired outcome.
“The market impact was more about the anticipated announcement and what the prospective size of the Fed’s total purchases would be than about the actual start or end of the buying,” Stith said.
Bonds slip as stocks revive; soft bid for 30-yrs
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury debt prices retreated on Thursday, hurt by a lackluster 30-year Treasury bond auction and renewed appetite for stocks and commodities after recent sell-offs in riskier assets.
Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR prices were down half a point in price, their yields rising to 3.22 percent, from 3.16 percent on Wednesday and 3.13 percent last week.
Major stock market indexes .SPX.DJI.IXIC each rose more than 0.6 percent. Front-month U.S. oil futures CLc1 rose nearly 2 percent to $100 per barrel. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index .CRB, a commodity price gauge, rose 0.6 percent.
Much of the bond market action on Thursday centered around the U.S. Treasury’s $16 billion 30-year bond auction, the last of the government’s three refunding auctions this week.
Some price cuts occurred before the bidding deadline as dealers tried to entice buyers, but more cuts came after the deadline when it became evident the earlier price cuts had not been big enough to inspire a more robust bid.
“Treasuries traded weaker on the day before the auction, building in a reasonable outright concession,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.
“The auction was soft, however, with low non-dealer bidding at 41.7 percent versus the 55 percent norm,” he said.
Safety bid boosts bonds as stocks, oil slide
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries rose on Wednesday as stock losses revived investors’ appetite for safe-haven U.S. government debt.
Lower oil prices also hinted at slower global growth ahead, a development that would extend the life of accommodative monetary policy.
Major stock market indexes .SPX.DJI.IXIC each fell more than one percent. Front-month U.S. oil futures fell more than 4.5 percent to $99 per barrel. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index .CRB, a commodity price gauge, fell 2.5 percent.
“Lower stock and commodity prices and a strong 10-year auction helped bonds,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.
The price cuts in oil and other commodities cooled some inflation fears and made investors more willing to buy fixed-income securities whose value is hurt by inflation.
Unexpectedly large oil inventory numbers signaled “that domestic demand for oil may be faltering and also that the global picture is not necessarily strong,” said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
Meanwhile, China’s 5.3 percent inflation in April could prompt its government to step up efforts to further slow the world’s second-biggest economy.
Bond prices cut as Treasury sells securities
NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury debt prices ended lower on Tuesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak as dealers cut prices before 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions.
But recent commodity price declines, some weaker economic data, and concerns about the euro zone restrained the selling.
The Treasury will sell $24 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. A $32 billion three-year auction on Tuesday drew average demand.
Before the auction, three-year notes had a yield just above the psychological 1 percent level, allowing the auction to draw a 3.29 ratio of bids offered to those accepted, said Cantor Fitzgerald Treasury analyst Justin Lederer in New York.
Bonds reached session highs at mid-morning, then crept lower for the rest of the session, “building in a small, but necessary, concession” before the refunding supply, he added.
Selling was limited, though, as concern about challenges to the euro zone and its currency sustained some appetite for safe-haven U.S. debt.
Lower inflation expectations engendered by a sharp sell-off in commodities, including crude oil, late last week are also supportive for Treasuries, traders said.
Middle of curve outperforms; uncertainty feeds bid
NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) – Most U.S. Treasuries prices rose on Monday as a steady appetite for safe-haven U.S. government debt allowed bonds to stand firm despite last week’s stronger-than-expected employment data and this week’s supply.
Analysts said Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Greece’s credit rating fed a safety bid for U.S. government debt. For details, see [ID:nLDE7480MK]
That bid proved a stronger market influence than the April U.S. employment report released by the Labor Department on Friday and the $72 billion Treasury refunding, comprised of three-, 10- and 30-year sales set for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Senior euro zone policymakers acknowledged that Athens will need a second bailout package. Officials also said the European Union was also considering lower interest rates on rescue loans to Ireland and easier bailout terms for Greece as the common currency region floundered deeper into crisis.
Standard & Poor’s suggested Athens might have to reduce the face value of its bonds by up to 70 percent, implying big losses for investors. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For an interactive timeline on euro zone debt crisis: link.reuters.com/xur78r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
“Greece was downgraded even though it did not pull out of the EU, so clearly the (Spiegel Online) article had something right,” said David Ader, head government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut, referring to a May 6 report that euro zone finance ministers were meeting in Luxembourg on Friday to discuss Greece, including the issue of its possible exit from the currency bloc. “Greece has not withdrawn from the euro zone … yet.”
Low short-term U.S. yields well entrenched
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) – U.S. short-term rates remained barely above zero on Wednesday, anchored by the Federal Reserve’s near zero interest-rate policy, a path looking even more entrenched after a recent spate of weaker economic data.
Three-month U.S. bills yielded just 0.03 percent and six-month bills yielded 0.076 percent.
The effective Fed funds rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight, was 0.09 percent on Wednesday. The rate ranged from a low of 0.05 percent to a high of 3.375 percent with 3 basis points of standard deviation.
Short-term rates have been anchored by the Federal Reserve’s near zero interest-rate policy, a stance the U.S. central bank pledged again last week to keep in place for an extended period.
In the press conference he held last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated an extended period could mean the time spanning at least two or three policy meetings, pointing to a period of several months or more.
The prospect of the Fed adhering to a path of near-zero short-term rates looked more deeply set after the Institute for Supply Management released its May survey of the economy’s service sector in April.
That report showed an unexpected slowing in the service sector’s growth pace in April, with a troubling drop in new orders. For details, see [ID:nN04220525]

