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Apr 5, 2011

Yields up on inflation worry, tightening fears

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries fell and yields rose on Tuesday on the view that the inflation concerns of some Federal Reserve policymakers could cause the central bank to tighten monetary conditions before year-end.

Fissures among Fed policymakers have lately grown more distinct with some so-called inflation hawks sounding alarmed about higher fuel and food prices and others emphasizing that the Fed is far from achieving its dual mandate, particularly its requirement to promote full employment.

Those who ring the inflation alarms have gone so far as to suggest that the Fed need not complete its planned purchases of $600 billion in U.S. Treasuries, a phase of monetary stimulus scheduled to be done by the end of June.

Others, like New York Fed Bank President William Dudley, one of the Fed’s most influential policy makers, believe there is no reason for the Fed to reverse a policy designed to avoid deflation and spur employment. [nN01154414]

Minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy meeting on March 15, released on Tuesday, highlighted this debate, though policymakers appeared ready to complete the rest of the $600 billion in Treasury purchases committed to last year.

“Traders are getting the feeling that more members of the (Federal Open Market) Committee are coming around to the inflation story and possible tightening as a remedy,” said Kevin Giddis, executive managing director at Morgan Keegan.

This matters when investors are so focused on the Fed.

Apr 4, 2011

View Fed will stay the course boosts bonds

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Monday after the Federal Reserve purchases reminded investors that influential Fed officials believe it is too soon to talk of lifting the accelerator on monetary ease, a view that should support bonds in the weeks ahead.

New York Fed Bank President William Dudley, one of the U.S. central bank’s most powerful policy makers, said on Friday there was no reason for the Fed to reverse a policy designed to avoid deflation and spur employment. [nN01154414]

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said U.S. inflation was likely to remain moderate [nN04244409] and, in an interview with Reuters, St. Louis Fed Research Director Christopher Waller said the Fed was likely to buy all of the bonds it has said it would purchase by June 30 and reinvest securities for a while after that before beginning to tighten financial conditions. [nN04277975]

“In the recovery from the 1990-91 recession, the Fed waited until 3.770 million jobs had been created over the course of two years before hiking rates the first time,” said Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ chief financial economist Chris Rupkey.

The economy lost 8.8 million payroll jobs in the most recent recession, and 1.8 million of those jobs have been “hired back” from February 2010 to March 2011, Rupkey noted.

Since no new note auctions are set until April 12 and the economic data calendar is light, Fed purchases had a more noticeable impact on prices than usual, a phenomenon that could persist throughout the week.

The Fed bought $8.03 billion of Treasuries maturing between November 2016 and March 2018, the largest buy since Feb. 7.

Apr 1, 2011

Prices gain after Fed’s Dudley reassures on QE2

NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries rose on Friday after a top Fed official said he saw no reason to alter course on monetary policy despite an earlier report showing solid gains in U.S. employment.

Treasuries initially slipped after March jobs growth data made investors see a chance the U.S. Federal Reserve might end its easy monetary policy sooner than expected. For details, see [ID:nNOAT004775]

However, remarks by New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley that faster jobs growth in coming months would not be a reason for the central bank to reverse course erased most Treasuries losses.

A yield curve flattening that occurred immediately after the employment report also reversed itself.

“Dudley’s comment that there was no reason not to complete QE2 reminded the market the Fed is still many months away from tightening,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. “One side of the Fed’s mandate, falling unemployment, is saying exit, the other side of their mandate, low core inflation, is saying not so fast.”

At March’s rate of job growth, it would still take payrolls two years and 10 months to reach pre-recession levels.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were unchanged on the day, yielding 3.47 percent after being down 10/32 right after the employment report. U.S. federal fund futures were slightly lower, with the January 2012 FFF2 contract down 3 ticks at 99.645.

Mar 31, 2011

Prices slip; quarter-end portfolio shifts cited

NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices fell on Thursday, tripping over portfolio shifts and quarter-end window-dressing.

“There are some portfolio shifts from bonds to stocks and more will be contemplated,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ.

A seller of about $350 million in Treasuries in the cash market turned price action negative, especially 30-year and 10-year debt, according to capital markets information provider IFR.

“There was a large seller in futures and talk of an asset allocation into stocks,” said John Spinello, chief fixed-income technical strategist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

Stocks rose, but then slipped into the minus column.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR, narrowly higher in early dealings, were down 4/32, their yields rising to 3.46 percent from 3.44 percent on Wednesday.

Thirty-year bonds, up 17/32 earlier, were down 09/32, their yields rising to 4.52 percent from 4.51 percent on Wednesday.

Mar 31, 2011

Prices up as jobless claims top forecast

NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices rose on Thursday after the latest figures on jobless claims offered a less robust picture of the labor market.

New U.S. claims for jobless benefits topped the consensus forecast, though claims were down from an upwardly revised figure for the previous week. The data on jobless claims comes a day ahead of the closely watched government report on payrolls.

Along with annual revisions, the data left the March payroll picture “influencing the employment data tomorrow, technically a bit less strong,” said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR, up 1/32 before the jobless claims data, were up 6/32 afterwards, their yields easing to 3.41 percent from 3.44 percent on Wednesday.

Thirty-year bonds, which would be hurt by inflation expectations since inflation erodes the value of fixed-income investments, rose 17/32, their yields easing to 4.47 percent from 4.51 percent.

New claims for unemployment fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000. Data was revised back to 2006 to take into account new seasonal factors. For the week ended March 19, continuing claims fell to 3.7 million. [ID:nOAT004773]r.reuters.com/xyv78r

Ellis said hiring was “very restrained” relative to the declines in layoffs. But if the March U.S. employment figure comes in on the strong side on Friday, that would raise confidence that new hiring is finally normalizing.

Mar 30, 2011

Bond prices up on ADP job data, 7-yr sale ahead

NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices gained modestly on Wednesday after a report said U.S. private sector jobs rose in March and ahead of the Treasury’s afternoon sale of seven-year notes.

Traders said prices firmed on relief that the number was slightly below the consensus forecast, and offered no surprising gains.

The ADP national employment report showed U.S. employers added 201,000 private sector jobs in March, below the forecast from a Reuters poll for an increase of 203,000 jobs.

“There’s really no drama,” said David Ader, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR, unchanged before the report, were up 1/32 afterward, their yields easing to 3.487 percent from 3.495 percent on Tuesday.

Thirty-year bonds US30YT=RR, up 2/32 before the report, were up 3/32 afterward, their yields easing to 4.54 percent from 4.55 percent on Tuesday.

Financial markets look at the privately issued ADP report for an early hint of what the U.S. government’s monthly payrolls report on Friday might show about non-farm payroll gains.

Mar 29, 2011

Price cuts for bonds before 5-yr auction

NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices retreated on Tuesday as traders trimmed prices to entice buyers to the Treasury’s five-year note auction.

The Treasury will sell $35.0 billion in five-year notes at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT), the second of the Treasury’s three auctions of coupons this week, totaling $99 billion.

The government sold two-year notes on Monday and will sell seven-years on Wednesday. The auctions settle on March 31.

While the two-year auction produced a “tail,” meaning the auction yield was higher than the simultaneous open-market yield, traders do not expect the phenomenon to be repeated at the five-year note sale.

In when-issued trade, the five-year notes to be sold at the Tuesday auction (1700 GMT) yielded 2.253 percent. Traders have said a yield of 2.25 percent could attract good demand.

“Treasuries have been under pressure this morning, owing in no small part to building in a concession for this week’s supply events,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

“The five-year is one of those maturities people have a keen interest in,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. “Focus is centered on Tuesday’s auction and the March jobs report at the end of the week, which is supposed to be strong.”

Mar 29, 2011

Modest price cuts for bonds before 5-year auction

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries showed modest losses on Tuesday as traders trimmed prices to entice buyers to the Treasury’s five-year note auction later in the day.

The Treasury will sell $35.0 billion in five-year notes at 1 p.m. ET, the second of the Treasury’s three auctions of coupons this week, totaling $99 billion.

The government sold two-year notes on Monday and will sell seven-years on Wednesday. The auctions settle on March 31.

While the two-year auction produced a “tail,” meaning the auction yield was higher than the simultaneous open-market yield, traders do not expect the phenomenon to be repeated at the five-year note sale.

“With the extreme market volatility, today’s auction is a wild card,” said Justin Lederer, fixed-income rates strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

In when-issued trade, the five-year notes to be sold at the Tuesday auction yielded 2.245 percent. Traders have said a yield of 2.25 percent could attract good demand.

“On one hand, there is a risk that many will not bid as aggressively; setups are not as strong, and many investors see the Fed’s current accommodative policies close to the finish line,” Lederer said, noting that Cantor does not expect the first Fed interest rate hike until late 2012.

Mar 28, 2011

Bonds cut losses as demand seen for 2-yr sale

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries erased most losses on Monday just ahead of a Treasury two-year note sale where higher yields were expected to draw solid demand.

Prospective supply this week and some recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bond prices early in the session.

But anticipation of good demand for the Treasury’s $35 billion in two-year notes at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT) led to most of those losses being erased. The long-dated sector of the yield curve, which is getting no new supply this week, slightly outperformed the middle of the curve.

“Treasury auctions coming through their 1 p.m. level has been the theme of 2011, with nine out the last nine coming on or through their 1 p.m. yield levels,” said Justin Lederer, fixed-income rates strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, noting the significant backup in rates since the last two-year note sale.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR, down 8/32 earlier, were up 1/32 at midday to yield 3.44 percent.

In when-issued trade, the two-year notes to be sold at 1 p.m. yielded 0.803 percent.

“Yen intervention proceeds should be reflected in indirect bidder participation, which was 31.3 percent last month and has averaged 33 percent over the past six months,” Lederer said.

Mar 28, 2011

U.S. bonds slip ahead of supply, end of QE 2 eyed

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries slipped on Monday as traders trimmed positions to make way for new supply and looked ahead to mid-year when the Federal Reserve’s program of buying Treasuries is set to end.

Government data showing U.S. personal spending and inflation accelerated in February also weighed on prices.

The market prepared for two-, five- and seven-year Treasury note auctions, a total of $99 billion in supply, starting with Monday’s $35 billion two-year sale at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were down 8/32, their yields up at 3.47 percent from 3.44 percent.

“We sold off at the opening in Tokyo and there was a small amount of additional selling when the data showed consumers were out there spending last month,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ.

Lower oil prices also implied less risk to the global growth outlook, “and that’s a negative for bonds,” he added.

On Wall Street, stock prices .DJI.IXIC.SPX rose.

    • About Ellen

      "I cover the U.S. Treasury market, including developments in monetary policy and the economy. I have covered these subjects since the Volcker era, though in between I covered stocks for UPI (and Reuters), the defense and aerospace industry and the retail industry. I occasionally write about culture: classical music, opera, museums, and culture-based travel. I live and work in New York City."
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