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Jan 31, 2011

, 6-mo bill auction well bid

NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) – U.S. three- and six-month bill auctions were well bid on Monday though buyside participation was subdued compared to what it was last year and the year before.

The three-month bill auction stopped right on the when-issued bid side at 15 basis points, as it has done in six of the past seven auctions, said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co in New York.

The ratio of bids received to those accepted slipped to 4.21 this week from 4.71 last week, a change partially attributable to a $3 billion increase in supply.

Simons said buyside participation in the auctions had been “weak heading into the end of 2010 and remains significantly less aggressive than in the first half of (last) year.

“The wind down of the Supplemental Financing Program (SFP) balance to $5 bln should bring some additional demand as cash will be looking for a home and these larger regular bill issues will be easily digested,” he said.

“The redemption of the Treasury’s SFP (Supplmental Financing Program) bills will create room for a substantial increase in regular bill sales in the weeks ahead,” according to a note from research firm Wrightson ICAP.

To keep the Treasury from hitting a legal debt limit, the Treasury is reducing the amount of money it holds in a special account at the Federal Reserve.

Jan 28, 2011

Bonds up as stock slide, Egypt feed safety bid

NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices climbed on Friday, erasing early losses, as stock losses and unrest in Egypt fed demand for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

“The market is a little sensitive when people take to the streets as it reminds them of the riots in Greece a year ago and that did lead to a flight into the safety of U.S. Treasuries,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR, down early in the session, were up 18/32 at midday, their yields easing to 3.33 percent from 3.38 percent on Thursday.

U.S. stocks fell from 29-month highs as Amazon and Ford reported weak results and Egyptian armed forces confronted protestors demanding President Hosni Mubarak step down. [ID:nLDE70R25X]

“Egypt is in lock down mode,” said Thomas di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Securities in New York. “A flight to quality bid is coming into the U.S. dollar and Treasuries.”

That the stock market was unable to hold a bid after the U.S. government released a fairly upbeat report on fourth-quarter U.S. growth helped fuel the rise in Treasuries, along with the situation in Egypt, said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford Connecticut.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 137 points, more than 1 percent and the Nasdaq index .IXIC more than 2 percent in early afternoon dealings.

Jan 28, 2011

Bonds retreat as Q4 U.S. growth depletes bid

NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury debt prices retreated on Friday as news that the U.S. economy gathered speed in the fourth quarter, aided by growth in exports and the biggest consumer spending gain in more than four years, weakened the bid for safe-haven U.S. debt.

The news buoyed U.S. stock index futures, another sign that investors were willing to shoulder more risk, a shift that comes at the expense of U.S. Treasuries.

“We don’t think the Treasury market offers a lot of value to us,” said Tom Atteberry, co-manager of First Pacific Advisors’ New Income FUND FPNIX, comprising $3.7 billion of First Pacific’s $15 billion in assets under management.

Analysts said strong exports offered one of the clearest signals yet that a sustainable recovery is under way.

Meanwhile, consumer spending grew at a 4.4 percent rate.

“The bond market didn’t care for the economic releases this morning and drove 10 years down to test support,” said Thomas di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Securities in New York.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR fell 10/32, their yields rising to 3.44 percent from 3.39 percent on Thursday.

Jan 27, 2011

U.S. bond prices cut before 7-yr auction

NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries prices slipped on Thursday as traders sold debt to make room for supply from the last Treasury note auction of the week.

The $29 billion in seven-year notes the Treasury will sell at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) 2.80 percent in when-issued trade.

“The Street is setting up for the auction,” said Thomas di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Securities in New York.

Dealers said the auction would draw demand from investment managers looking to adjust the average maturity length of their portfolios, as well as from foreign central banks.

In 2010, foreigners bought an average of 27 percent of the seven-year notes sold at each auction.

Portfolio managers who align their investment funds with benchmark indexes often have to make last-minute adjustments to the average maturity of their holdings at the end of each month. Seven-year notes are always the last Treasury notes to be sold at the end of each month, so they function as a quick fix for the managers.

Apart from trades driven by the seven-year auction, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of Treasuries on Thursday also cast a slightly negative shadow, analysts said.

Jan 27, 2011

Most U.S. bond market losses erased after data

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Weaker-than-forecast economic data and the U.S. Treasury’s shrinking of the amount of money it has on deposit at the Federal Reserve let U.S. Treasuries prices erase most losses on Thursday, leaving them little changed on the day.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes, down 11/32 in early dealings, were down just 1/32, yielding 3.42 percent.

The government said new U.S. jobless benefit claims jumped sharply to 454,000 in the week ended Jan 22 from a revised 403,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had expected new jobless claims to total 405,000.

Other data showed U.S. non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a category of durable goods orders viewed as a proxy for business spending, rose 1.4 percent in December, slightly below Reuters’ consensus forecast of 1.5 percent.

Total durable goods orders fell 2.5 percent, weaker than the consensus forecast for a rise of 1.5 percent.

“The better tone is legitimate if the market’s trading this data,” said David Ader, head of U.S. government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

The Treasury Department said that to avoid hitting the U.S. debt ceiling, it would shrink its Supplementary Financing Program, which is money held at the Federal Reserve for emergency lending facilities, from $200 billion to $5 billion.

Jan 26, 2011

Bond fall before Fed statement; good 5-year sale

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury prices fell on Wednesday as traders reduced bond holdings ahead of the first Federal Reserve policy statement of 2011.

Early losses widened when the government said sales of new single-family homes jumped 17.5 percent in December. Better economic news tends to hurt safe-haven U.S. government debt.

This week’s $99 billion in longer-dated supply and the unwritten postscript to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address also hurt U.S. Treasuries prices.

“You have supply, you have slightly better-than-expected home sales data coming in, and you have a market that doesn’t know how to handicap the State of the Union address,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist for Prudential Fixed Income, with $240 billion in assets under management.

“In the midst of trying to take down our regular chunk of supply, bonds got thrown a curve ball yesterday about a spending freeze in the State of the Union address,” he said.

The bond rally spurred by talk of a freeze on federal discretionary spending boosted prices and cut yields. That made the five- and seven-year notes the Treasury is selling this week less attractive to potential buyers. To attract buyers, the market cut prices on Wednesday.

The market pared losses briefly after data showing solid demand for $35 billion of new five-year notes, which precedes Thursday’s $29 billion sale of seven-year notes US7YTWI=TWEB. For details, see [ID:nTAR000124]

Jan 26, 2011

Bond prices slip before auction, Fed statement

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury prices fell on Wednesday amid price-cutting ahead of a five-year note auction and the Federal Reserve’s first policy statement of the year

World stock markets rose overnight and U.S. stocks rose in early dealings after U.S. President Barack Obama called for a lower corporate tax rate, putting a bit of downward pressure on Treasuries.

U.S. Treasuries weakened also in sympathy with a sell off in German 10-year securities after poor demand emerged for a 1.62 billion euro sale of 30-year Bunds, traders said.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were down 8/32 in price, their yields rising to 3.37 percent from 3.34 percent late on Tuesday, while 30-year bonds were down 9/32 in price, their yields rising to 4.51 percent from 4.49 percent.

“Today’s focus will be the Treasury’s five-year note auction and the (Fed’s) FOMC decision,” said Thomas di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Securities in New York.

The Treasury Department will sell $35 billion in five-year notes at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) in its second auction of the week. The five-year notes to be sold this afternoon yielded 2.03 percent in when-issued trading.

FIRST FED STATEMENT OF THE YEAR ON TAP

Jan 25, 2011

Prices rise on talk of US budget freeze

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury prices rose on Tuesday after a report that President Barack Obama would propose a freeze on discretionary non-security spending in his State of the Union address.

Treasuries extended gains, with the 30-year bond climbing over a full point in price, after solid demand in the first of this week’s debt auctions — the sale of $35 billion of two-year notes.

The Federal Reserve also bought $7.72 billion in Treasuries with maturity dates ranging from Feb. 15, 2015 to June 30, 2016, which was supportive of the Treasury’s five-year note sale scheduled for Wednesday.

A two-day Federal Reserve meeting that began on Tuesday offered a constructive backdrop. Policymakers are expected to extend the central bank’s accommodative monetary policy.

“A budget freeze should limit the issuance,” said John Spinello, chief fixed-income technical strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note US10YT=RR shot up 24/32 in price with the yield slipping to 3.32 percent from 3.41 percent late on Monday, while the 30-year bond was up 1-13/32 in price with its yield sliding to 4.47 percent from 4.56 percent the previous day.

“The government’s fiscal position is on everybody’s mind,” said James Barnes, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at National Penn Investors Trust Company in Reading, Pennsylvania, which has $9 billion in assets under management.

Jan 25, 2011

Bond prices rise on talk of U.S. budget freeze

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury prices moved up toward session highs on Tuesday, aided by Federal Reserve purchases of U.S. Treasuries and by a report that President Barack Obama would propose a freeze on discretionary, non-security spending in his State of the Union address.

In addition, the Fed bought $7.72 billion in U.S. Treasuries with maturity dates ranging from Feb. 15, 2015 to June 30, 2016, which was supportive of the Treasury’s five-year note sale scheduled for Wednesday.

A two-day Federal Reserve meeting that began on Tuesday offered a constructive backdrop. Policymakers are expected to extend the central bank’s accommodative monetary policy.

“A budget freeze should limit the issuance,” said John Spinello, chief fixed-income technical strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR, which were up 2/32 before the report circulated, were up 8/32 afterward, their yield easing to 3.38 percent from 3.41 percent on Monday.

“The government’s fiscal position is on everybody’s mind,” said James Barnes, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at National Penn Investors Trust Company in Reading, Pennsylvania, which has $9 billion in assets under management.

Concerns about excessive debt once focused on corporations, then on households and municipalities, he said.

Jan 25, 2011

Treasuries prices up as stock retreat fuels bid

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury debt prices added to the previous day’s gains on Tuesday as anticipated purchases by the Federal Reserve lent support and stock price declines added luster to safe-haven U.S. government debt.

A two-day Federal Reserve meeting, beginning on Tuesday, offered a constructive backdrop. Policymakers are expected to extend the U.S. central bank’s accommodative monetary policy.

Talk of a potential pullback in share prices was supportive for Treasuries, a traditional safe-haven.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 38 points early on Tuesday after approaching the 12,000 mark on Monday on thin volume.

The Fed’s purchases of Treasuries comprise part of its plan to spur lending and economic growth. It is expected to buy Treasuries maturing from January 2015 to June 2016 on Tuesday.

The U.S. Treasury will sell five-year notes on Wednesday after auctioning $35 billion in two-year notes at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) this afternoon.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 6/32, their yields easing to 3.39 percent from 3.41 percent on Monday, staying in a range that has held for over five weeks.

    • About Ellen

      "I cover the U.S. Treasury market, including developments in monetary policy and the economy. I have covered these subjects since the Volcker era, though in between I covered stocks for UPI (and Reuters), the defense and aerospace industry and the retail industry. I occasionally write about culture: classical music, opera, museums, and culture-based travel. I live and work in New York City."
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