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Sep 7, 2011

U.S. 4-week bills sale reflects low rate policy

NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury Department sold $30 billion in four-week bills yielding zero percent interest on Wednesday, illustrating the appetite for safe, short-term financial instruments.

The strong demand was in sync with the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep short-term interest rates exceptionally low at least through mid-2013.

The Treasury said it sold $30 billion in four-week bills at a high rate of 0.000 percent, awarding 91.32 percent of the bids at the high.

There was no lack of takers for the bills as bids offered overwhelmed the bids accepted by a 4.91 ratio.

Dealers purchased 57.2 percent of the sale, their smallest takedown since Aug. 9, noted Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co in New York.

Indirect bidders took 30.9 percent of the sale and the direct bid captured 11.9 percent, the latter in its largest takedown since Aug. 9, he said.

“There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines so the demand for bills is enormous right now,” said Ray Humphrey, senior vice president and senior portfolio manager at Hartford Investment Management Co, with $160.8 billion in assets under management.

Aug 19, 2011

Treasury yields edge up from 60-year lows

NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) – Some U.S. Treasuries posted slight losses on Friday, nudging yields up from their lowest levels in at least 60 years, but investors remained jittery before next week’s global central bank conference.

“We’ve had some really big moves this week. It’s hard to extend gains after what we’ve seen,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics LLC in San Francisco. “We’re waiting for more data and then Bernanke next week.”

The Federal Reserve will hold its annual global banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting at the end of next week, and markets are particularly keen to hear remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The benchmark 10-year note slipped 1/32 in price on Friday, its yield edging up to 2.07 percent after Thursday’s rally in bond prices pushed yields down as far as 1.98 percent, their lowest in at least 60 years and down from 3 percent less than a month ago.

The 30-year Treasury bond continued to benefit from investors extending duration to capture a higher yield. It rose 20/32 in price, causing its yield to fall to 3.39 percent. It was the bond’s biggest weekly gain since December 2008.

“Everybody’s talking about Jackson Hole and about what can happen overseas over the weekend,” said Marty Mitchell, head of government bond trading at Stifel, Nicolaus in Baltimore, Maryland.

Lingering fears about Europe’s debt crisis and speculation about whether not Japanese authorities will intervene to halt the surge of the yen are among the market’s concerns.

Aug 18, 2011

Bonds rally on economy, eurozone fears

NEW YORK (Reuters) – More fears about the global economy drove prices of safe-haven U.S. government bonds up on Thursday and perceptions about the U.S. and euro zone outlook are likely to govern trading in coming days.

Early buying intensified after data showed factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region fell to a nearly 2-1/2 year low in August. (The survey period was August 8 through August 16.)

Other data showed U.S. consumer prices rose in July and that 408,000 Americans claimed new jobless benefits last week.

Fear that the euro zone fiscal crisis was having an impact on its financial sector also fed the safe-haven bid a day after an unidentified euro zone bank borrowed $500 million in one-week dollars from the European Central Bank.

It was the first time a euro zone bank tapped the ECB for such funding since February.

The latest wave of anxiety came after The Wall Street Journal said the Federal Reserve was looking more closely at the U.S. units of Europe’s biggest banks in case euro zone debt issues spread to the U.S. banking system.

Another volatile stock market session that sent major indexes down 4 to 5 percent also whetted investors’ appetite for U.S. bonds, even ones maturing in 30 years offering a yield of less than 3-1/2 percent.

Aug 18, 2011

Bonds rally as economy, eurozone fears spur bid

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) – More fears about the global economy drove prices of safe-haven U.S. government bonds up on Thursday and perceptions about the U.S. and euro zone outlook are likely to govern trading in coming days.

Early buying intensified after data showed factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region fell to a nearly 2-1/2 year low in August. (The survey period was Aug. 8 through Aug. 16.)

Other data showed U.S. consumer prices rose in July and that 408,000 Americans claimed new jobless benefits last week.

Fear that the euro zone fiscal crisis was having an impact on its financial sector also fed the safe-haven bid a day after an unidentified euro zone bank borrowed $500 million in one-week dollars from the European Central Bank.

It was the first time a euro zone bank tapped the ECB for such funding since February.

The latest wave of anxiety came after The Wall Street Journal said the Federal Reserve was looking more closely at the U.S. units of Europe’s biggest banks in case euro zone debt issues spread to the U.S. banking system. [ID:nL5E7JI0QY]

Another volatile stock market session that sent major indexes .DJI.SPX.IXIC down 4 to 5 percent also whetted investors’ appetite for U.S. bonds, even ones maturing in 30 years offering a yield of less than 3-1/2 percent.

Aug 17, 2011

Yield curve flattens as higher returns sought

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) – The U.S. yield curve flattened on Wednesday as near-zero short-term interest rates pushed investors to buy longer-dated bonds to get a higher return.

Two-year notes offered a return of 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, and three-year notes offered a return of 34 basis points. Five-year notes, meanwhile, offered a return of just under 1 percent.

These less than appealing returns, at least in absolute terms, encouraged investors to buy seven-year notes, yielding nearly 1.5 percent, 10-year notes yielding 2.17 percent, and 30-year bonds yielding 3.57 percent.

If U.S. economic growth picked up enough to generate higher inflation, those yields could look low. But if the economy entered a recession and disinflation prevailed, those bets could turn out profitably.

In a recession, 10-year Treasury yields could fall to 1.5 percent and 30-year yields could fall to 2 percent, said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research and managing director at The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center.

Stock market losses .DJI.SPX.IXIC, though relatively restrained ones by recent standards, helped sustain demand for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

U.S. government debt has been largely moving inversely to equities as investors seek signs of stabilization after wild price swings sent investors pouring into safe-haven bonds.

Aug 16, 2011

Bonds up as French-German meeting fails to calm

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) – Disappointment that French and German leaders declined to propose a boost to the euro zone bailout fund and said all 17 euro zone countries should commit to balanced finances fed a safe-haven bid for U.S. Treasuries on Tuesday.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said they planned closer joint governance of economic policy to deal with the euro zone’s debt problems. They did not say they would attempt to sell euro zone bonds.

“The uncertainty over the euro zone bond issuance is what caused the rally in the bond market and the selloff in equities,” said Christian Cooper, head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading at Jefferies & Co in New York.

U.S. stocks .DJI.SPX.IXIC slipped, driving a safety bid for bonds, with 30-year Treasury bonds US30YT=RR rising more than two points in price and the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR up nearly a point.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, fell to 2.23 percent. Many analysts think 10-year note yields could fall below 2 percent as the economy slows.

The bid for long-dated Treasuries brought volumes back to levels seen on Friday, but still at just 66 percent of the 10-day moving-average, said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

Seven-year notes US7YT=RR climbed 20/32, their yields falling to 1.52 percent from 1.62 percent late on Monday.

Aug 16, 2011

Bonds gain as stock losses sustain safety bid

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) – Treasuries rallied on Tuesday after French and German leaders declined to propose a boost to the euro zone bailout fund and said all 17 euro zone countries should commit to balanced finances.

U.S. stocks .DJI.SPX.IXIC fell more than 1 percent and a resulting bid for safe-haven U.S. government debt sent 30-year Treasury bonds US30YT=RR up two points and the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR up one point.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said they planned closer joint governance of economic policy to deal with the euro zone’s debt problems. They did not say they would attempt to sell euro zone bonds.

“The uncertainty over the euro zone bond issuance is what caused the rally in the bond market and the selloff in equities,” said Christian Cooper, head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading, Jefferies & Co in New York.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, fell to 2.22 percent. Many analysts think 10-year note yields could fall below 2 percent as the economy slows.

Seven-year notes US7YT=RR climbed 21/32, their yields falling to 1.52 percent from 1.62 percent late on Monday.

The euro zone leaders were under pressure to come up with plans to shore up the euro zone and restore financial market confidence and their remarks disappointed some expectations.

Aug 15, 2011

Bonds lose ground as U.S. stocks lure investors

NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) – Treasuries fell in light volume on Monday as a third day of stock market gains drew investors away from safe-haven U.S. government debt.

U.S. stocks .DJI.SPX.IXIC and oil prices rose on acquisition news — Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) offered to buy Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc (MMI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) for about $12.5 billion in cash – and hopes for progress as the result of a meeting on Tuesday between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Europe’s debt crisis.

In contrast, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR fell 14/32, its yield rising to 2.31 percent from 2.24 percent late on Friday.

Early in the day, that yield fell to 2.25 percent after a New York State manufacturing gauge showed the sector contracted for the third month in a row in August. See [ID:nN1E77E04P]

The Treasury sold three- and six-month bills in a weekly auction with the statistical results more “normal” than the ones for last week’s bill sales, which occurred just after Standard & Poor’s ratings downgrade, said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

Also at the short end of the maturity range, two-year notes US2YT=RR yielded just 0.20 percent after falling to record low yields last week when the Federal Reserve said it would likely keep its federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent at least through mid-2013.

“With the Fed statement last week, the volatility in the front end is going to drop off the table,” said Charles Comiskey, Bank of Nova Scotia’s head Treasury trader in New York.

Aug 9, 2011

Bond prices fall; Fed, 3-year note sale on tap

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. government debt prices fell on Tuesday as investors ventured back into riskier assets, looking for value after Monday’s global selloff in stocks, corporate bonds and industrial commodities.

Prices of U.S. government securities expanded losses when stocks rose and trimmed losses when stocks shaved gains.

Major stock indexes .SPX.IXIC.DJI were all higher shortly before midday.

In contrast, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down 24/32, its yield rising to 2.40 percent, erasing about 1/3 of the previous day’s gain.

“The bond market is reacting to the bounce-back in stocks,” said Justin Hoogendoorn, fixed income strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.

Bond dealers got ready for the first U.S. Treasury note auction since Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. Treasury debt.

The Treasury plans to sell $32 billion in three-year notes, the first sale in a three-part refunding that includes a sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday and 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Aug 8, 2011

bill demand dwindles, higher returns sought

NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) – Investors gave new three- and six-month U.S. Treasury bills a cold shoulder on Monday as yields near zero sent them in search of higher returns offered by longer-dated U.S. government debt.

On the first U.S. trading day after Standard & Poor’s stripped the United States of its top-notch credit rating, tumbling global stock markets fed an avid bid for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

The Treasury sold three-month bills due Nov 10 at an interest rate of 0.045 percentage point, down from 0.115 point at last week’s auction. USAUCTION10

It auctioned six-month bills due Feb 9, 2012 at a rate of 0.065 point, down from prior week’s 0.150 point. USAUCTION13

But investors could get higher returns in longer-dated Treasuries. Seven-year Treasury notes US7YT=RR offered a yield of 1.75 percent and 10-year notes US10YT=RR, which the Treasury will sell on Wednesday, offered a 2.35 percent yield.

The Federal Reserve has tried to keep short-term yields low so that investors will invest for the longer term in riskier assets and in the real economy.

The weaker demand for the three- and six-month bills came a day before the Treasury begins its quarterly refunding where it will sell $72 billion in longer-dated debt.

    • About Ellen

      "I cover the U.S. Treasury market, including developments in monetary policy and the economy. I have covered these subjects since the Volcker era, though in between I covered stocks for UPI (and Reuters), the defense and aerospace industry and the retail industry. I occasionally write about culture: classical music, opera, museums, and culture-based travel. I live and work in New York City."
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