WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Trade tensions are starting to flare as the pace of the global economic revival shows signs of slowing.

Trade figures coming this week from three of the world’s biggest exporters — Germany, China and the United States — are likely to show vast gains from a year earlier, when the global recession was at its peak.

But they may also reflect a downshift in the rate of recovery. In China, for example, economists polled by Reuters are looking for a sharp 23 percent jump in January’s exports year-over-year, but a decline when compared with December.

The contrast is even more dramatic for China’s January imports, which are forecast to jump by 86 percent from a year earlier but decline from December.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States will head to Arctic Canada with a message for the G7 from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the U.S. economy is healing and it is aware of the task ahead to get its bulging debt back into shape.

When finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven rich nations gather in the Arctic Canadian town of Iqaluit this weekend, regulatory reform and the value of China’s yuan currency will also be up for discussion, a senior U.S. Treasury official said.

The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said Geithner’s message will be that the economic recovery is “gaining breadth” and substantial stimulus remained in the pipeline for 2010.

“The secretary will underscore the U.S. commitment to put government finances on a sustainable trajectory, recognizing that removing stimulus too early could cause a return to slowdown.” the official said.

WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters) – The United States will head to Arctic Canada with a message for the G7 from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the U.S. economy is healing and it is aware of the task ahead to get its bulging debt back into shape.

When finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven rich nations gather in the Arctic Canadian town of Iqaluit this weekend, regulatory reform and the value of China’s yuan currency will also be up for discussion, a senior U.S. Treasury official said.

The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said Geithner’s message will be that the economic recovery is “gaining breadth” and substantial stimulus remained in the pipeline for 2010.

“The secretary will underscore the U.S. commitment to put government finances on a sustainable trajectory, recognizing that removing stimulus too early could cause a return to slowdown.” the official said.

WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters) – The White House budget proposal released on Monday assumes the U.S. economy is heading for a six-year run of above-average economic growth with no sign of a worrisome spike in inflation or interest rates.

The forecasts underlying President Barack Obama’s budget plan show real gross domestic product rising 2.7 percent this year, which is largely in line with private forecasts.

Beginning in 2011, the White House’s projections diverge. It expects six consecutive years of strong growth ranging from 3.2 percent to 4.3 percent — well above what most economists consider the longer-term trend of around 2.6 percent.

The last time the economy saw a similar streak of strong growth was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com boom. Obama has said both that expansion and the housing-powered growth in the mid-2000s were bubble-driven, and he wants the next expansion phase to rest on sturdier pillars.

The White House budget proposal released on Monday assumes the U.S. economy is heading for a six-year run of above-average economic growth with no sign of a worrisome spike in inflation or interest rates. The forecasts underlying President Barack Obama’s budget plan show real gross domestic product rising 2.7 percent this year, which is largely in line with private forecasts. Beginning in 2011, the White House’s projections diverge. It expects six consecutive years of strong growth ranging from 3.2 percent to 4.3 percent — well above what most economists consider the longer-term trend of around 2.6 percent. The last time the economy saw a similar streak of strong growth was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com boom. The missing link is still jobs. Despite the rosy economic forecast, the White House sees the jobless rate only slowly declining from the current 10 percent level. In fact, the forecast shows the unemployment rate won’t dip below 6 percent until 2015. Strong growth. Weak labor market. Can we really have both for six years?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Businesses may finally be waking up from the recession.

The economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent annual pace in the last quarter of 2009, the strongest growth rate in more than six years. As expected, shifts in business inventories accounted for more than half of the advance.

One surprising source of strength was business investment, which rose at a 2.9 percent clip after a 5.9 percent drop in the previous quarter. Investment in equipment and software jumped at 13.3 percent rate, well above the third quarter’s 1.5 percent pace.

* The revival in business investment is particularly important because it comes in a year of massive retrenchment. For 2009 as a whole, that category declined at a 17.9 percent pace. The latest period marked the first quarterly advance since the second quarter of 2008.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Even with President Barack Obama’s attention firmly focused on jobs, it will be years before U.S. unemployment is back to pre-recession levels.

With 15.3 million people unemployed and thousands more so discouraged they’ve given up looking for work and are no longer counted in the unemployment rolls, elevating jobs to the top of the agenda was a political imperative, particularly with November congressional elections looming.

In his State of the Union address on Wednesday, Obama backed up his pledge to make jobs the number one focus in 2010 with proposals to free up $30 billion in small business lending and offer tax incentives for hiring.

Both make sense, economists say. Neither will work fast.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a guardedly upbeat view of the U.S. economy and renewed its pledge to keep interest rates near zero despite the objection of one policy maker.

The decision to hold rates steady by the Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee was 9-1, with Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig dissenting because he wanted the central bank to eliminate a phrase vowing to keep rates exceptionally low for “an extended period.”

The FOMC statement reflected a somewhat brighter tone than previously and appeared to put more faith in the sustainability of a nascent economic rebound.

“Economic activity has continued to strengthen,” the panel said after a two-day meeting, a slight upgrade from a December statement that said activity had “continued to pick up.”

WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a guardedly upbeat view of the U.S. economy and renewed its pledge to keep interest rates near zero despite the objection of one policy maker.

The decision to hold rates steady by the Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee was 9-1, with Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig dissenting because he wanted the central bank to eliminate a phrase vowing to keep rates exceptionally low for “an extended period.”

The FOMC statement reflected a somewhat brighter tone than previously and appeared to put more faith in the sustainability of a nascent economic rebound.

“Economic activity has continued to strengthen,” the panel said after a two-day meeting, a slight upgrade from a December statement that said activity had “continued to pick up.”

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Senate looked likely to grudgingly approve Ben Bernanke to a second term as Federal Reserve chairman this week after the White House stepped in to defend his crisis-fighting record and rally votes.

A Reuters poll showed 38 senators were either committed to approving the nomination or leaning that way, while 17 were outright opposed or inclined that way. Senate leaders need to secure a super-majority of 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to overcome efforts by some senators to block the nomination.

Senator Richard Durbin, the assistant Democratic leader, said he thought that with some Republican support, there would be enough votes to consider and approve Bernanke’s nomination.

“He is battle-tested and I think that we need his steady hand and his good mind to bring us forward out of this recession to a growing economy,” Durbin said after meeting with Bernanke on Monday.