Comments on: Arctic ice: big thaw on the way? Global environmental challenges Wed, 16 Nov 2016 08:14:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Dr. South Fri, 09 May 2008 17:43:45 +0000 Dear Alister Doyle:

I hope you can find someone who will be willing to bet $1,000…

“Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.”

“Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.”

If 50,000 sq km does not qualify as “ice-free”…. I wonder if 100,000 or 200,000 sq km would qualify as “ice-free.” When the experts say “ice-free”, what do they really mean?

By: Radioman Thu, 08 May 2008 20:50:14 +0000 I find it typical with off the wall conclusions in the story. Caveats like “appears” “may have” “would tend”
according to “satellite observations” not one factual reference datum. This is constantly the means to use the environment for political purposes.
The TRUTH is that the western greenland Ice cap GREW in thickness per Demark’s Meterological Institute, Norways Mohn Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean studies says it’s grown 21 inches in thickness in the past 10 years. Even the left wing site Logical Science AGREES Greenlands Ice cap is GROWING, not shrinking as this report concludes.

So why is this psuedo scientific reporting even considered news worthy?

By: Justin Bobby Thu, 08 May 2008 19:53:17 +0000 I think you are all insane if you believe that global warming is caused by humans. It’s not man made. It’s not like the earth hasn’t gotten way hotter and way cooler on it’s own before humans even existed.

By: Alister Doyle Thu, 08 May 2008 18:18:17 +0000 I like your bet, Dr. South, your website clearly explains it…I will try to find someone to take you on.

I’m not a climate scientist but I wouldn’t personally risk $1,000 against you…50,000 sq km is pretty small compared to the 2005 minimum of 4.28 million sq kms…and the following link says that the ice has been shrinking at 72,000 sq km per year so even with a vastly accelerated melt it might take some time to get down to 50,000… inimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

By: AEGeneral Wed, 07 May 2008 21:54:00 +0000 Good stuff, Tim. Here’s more info on sea ice in the southern hemisphere:


And I see Tim has already alluded to the unusual wind patterns. Smart man.

As for the claim that, “A less chill Arctic in turn would tend to heat the rest of the globe,” maybe you guys haven’t gotten the memo. Unprecedented sea ice in the southern hemisphere, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has shifted into its cool phase, the current solar cycle is unusually inactive, oceans haven’t warmed in 5 years, and temperatures have been flat for the last 10.

It’s called “global cooling,” and it’s part of the earth’s natural cycle.

I wouldn’t bet against Dr South, myself.

By: moronhunter Wed, 07 May 2008 13:43:45 +0000 Maybe you should remember that it is summer and ice has a habbit of melting under heat. check it out in your Kitchen, first take some ice out of your freezer and leave it at room temp, you will see it melt and I guarantee it

By: Dr. South Wed, 07 May 2008 12:51:12 +0000 I find the claim that the “North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008″ to be very interesting. However, I am having difficulty finding a climate scientist who is willing to bet $1,000 that there will be less than 50,000 sq km of ice in the Arctic soon. Therefore, I am willing to give someone a $100 finders fee if they can find any climate modeler who is willing to bet with me that the Arctic sea will be ice-free by 2013. In fact, to make it more attractive, I am willing to bet that the extent of Arctic sea ice will not go lower than 50,000 sq km by the year 2013 (ice free does mean no ice, right?). 5.html

By: Tim Wed, 07 May 2008 09:52:43 +0000 scott: My reference was to the NSIDC which covers BOTH poles. I merely suggested you take a look at Antarctica too.

g: The SEA ICE anomaly around Antarctica is on an increasing trend and is currently at a 29 year maximum. The ice cap is also increasing in mass.

Sea ice of course does NOT affect sea level change.

ccpo: See above and check my link. The anomaly trend has reversed since last year’s record low. One year of course does not make a trend. However according to NASA, last year’s record loss was due to unusual weather patterns which essentially ‘blew’ the ice out of the Arctic.

george: You have an opinion. Well done!

christian, ethan: You seem to have got it about right.

Alister: See above re: last year’s unusual Arctic weather. And as the PDO and AMO (something the IPCC have largely neglected) seem to be headed south , my bet is on colder Arctic weather for some time to come. Of course the older sea ice which got blown away last year will take time to recover and meanwhile the newer ice is vulnerable.

By: Alister Doyle Wed, 07 May 2008 07:31:59 +0000 Agreed that the Arctic and the Antarctic are likely to react very differently — the U.N. Climate Panel said last year that the Antarctic ice sheet may get bigger overall this century even as the Arctic ice shrinks.
Warmer air can absorb more moisture from the oceans and this falls as snow where temperatures are well below freezing, like over Antarctica — a vast continent with ice in many places hundreds of metres thick; unlike the Arctic where a thin layer of ice floats on an ocean.
Try this link from the U.N. panel’s report last year:  /ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf
Table 10.7, page 820, shows that world sea levels are projected to rise by between 18 and 59 cms this century but that the Antarctic ice sheet in isolation may contribute to a sea level FALL of between 2 and 14 cms, sucking up moisture from the seas. (…the figures exclude risks of a quickening slide of ice sheets into the sea, saying they are too little understood).

So it seems the Arctic could be free of ice even as the penguins have to suffer through a few more snowstorms.

By: Ethan Tue, 06 May 2008 17:38:42 +0000 Tim … excellent idea to check out the NSIDC page. Here’s a quote from their most recent (May 5th) update on Arctic Sea Ice:

“Taken together, an assessment of the available evidence, detailed below, points to another extreme September sea ice minimum. Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.”

Global warming? Maybe. Arctic warming? Definitely. Anthropogenic? Who cares?