The market volatility of the past two weeks has been astounding. While the broad factors are obvious, markets are not beasts that lend themselves to easy analysis and the nuances really matter here. A few broad factors at play are feeding off each other. All have been discussed and debated, but here’s a rundown on the interplay I see taking shape.
1) Euro breakup not so far-fetched
How do you hedge against the potential collapse of a single currency used in a $13 trillion economic zone plus trillions more of securities and derivatives? Not easily. A splintering or breakup of the euro has gone from unimaginable to a risk that can’t be ignored altogether. Europe’s inability to get ahead of the crisis now means a sovereign debt crisis is fast becoming a banking one. The solutions — a super sized EFSF rescue fund, Eurobonds, a commitment to fiscal union — are there to be had. But the political will is lacking.