Comments on: What’s normal for the economy? http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: mtm http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-883 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:01:30 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/#comment-883 Stealth internationalization seems more like it – much of it not all that difficult to see.

Haven’t all notions of past Recoveries been somewhat of a statistical and political mirage, just looking at the ongoing spread in the rich poor gap throughout the ‘good’ years to start. On the other hand, aren’t El-Erian and friends still enjoying an extended boom? How’s attendance at the Milken conference this year?

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By: Lord http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-869 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:55:56 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/#comment-869 People often suggest a V shaped recession is optimistic and an L shaped recession pessimistic, but a V shaped recession may imply a much deeper recession from which a bounce back can occur while an L shaped recession may be the most optimistic we can expect under the new normal.

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By: yr http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-863 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:19:49 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/#comment-863 ‘Normal’ is either a statistical term, or a state of mind – a way for some people to perceive certain phenomena. As such, it is subjective, and dependent primarily on the the person’s or group’s preconceptions, goals, wishes etc.
Things morph all the time: The credit bubble morphed for more than a decade before decision makers took notice of it, although economists had seriously warned about it as early as 2001. Obviously, when decision makers take notice of problems those problems have usually ‘matured’, and therefore more difficult to deal with.
It is reasonable to assume that the solutions applied now to deal with the crisis will in their turn generate new problems, and those problems are not likely to be small ones…

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By: Sunset Shazz http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-860 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:38:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/#comment-860 Felix,

El Erian’s point is well taken – he’s been banging this drum for some time: 1982-2007 was not “normal” in the sense of increasing systemic leverage built on a perceived great moderation. The coming Normal will be probably the longer term normal which includes 1945-1981, as an example, which is a very different world in terms of leverage, valuation, inflation, yield, etc.

The Knightian uncertainty as to what normal is now the new normal is something policymakers (Geithner, Summers) have not yet grasped as a problem.

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By: Kelli K http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-859 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:42:49 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/04/27/whats-normal-for-the-economy/#comment-859 Felix,

I was wondering if you can elaborate on your statement that “Ken Griffin was asking the government to socialize housing-market losses.” I was not aware Mr. Griffin was calling for any such thing. What is he proposing?

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