Opinion

Felix Salmon

Where are Ecuador’s bondholders?

By Felix Salmon
May 19, 2009

According to Ecuador’s finance minister — and there’s no reason not to believe her — there’s been “excellent” take-up of her offer to buy back Ecuador’s 2012 and 2030 bonds at somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 cents on the dollar. As Reuters’s Maria Eugenia Tello notes,

Most holders of defaulted debt have so far failed to create a united front against Ecuador to seek repayment via courts.

This is in contrast to what happened the last time the Ecuador defaulted, in September 1998. Back then, Ecuador made the announcement in the middle of the annual meetings of the IMF in Washington, and substantially all of Ecuador’s bondholders were in the same place at the same time. It didn’t take long for them to organize meetings and reject Ecuador’s offer to pay some bonds in full while in other cases using the bonds’ own built-in collateral to keep current.

Why do bondholders seem to have lost cohesion over the past decade? At the time, I thought that the experience of Ecuador’s 1998 default was going to be the event which catalyzed bondholders to come together as a much more unified bloc — and indeed the Emerging Market Creditors Association was formed as a direct result of the way that the Ecuador default was handled.

But EMCA fell apart, nothing really took its place, and a major global financial and economic crisis kinda took the wind out of bondholders’ sails. At this point, most of them have neither the energy nor the time horizon nor the levels of capital needed to rally and fight — Ecuador’s timing, you could say, is perfect in that regard.

What’s more, any holdout strategy is fraught with risk:

Many market watchers on Wall Street say Ecuador has a key advantage because Correa had already bought back most of the debt when the country started to threaten a default and dragged down market prices in late 2008. Ecuador has not confirmed or denied past buybacks.

The point here is that if and when Ecuador controls a supermajority of the bonds — which it certainly will by the time the exchange is over, if it doesn’t already — it can start modifying a lot of the covenants in them, making a court fight that much more difficult. Most hold-out or “vulture” creditors tend to dislike litigating bonds in any event, preferring loans instead, which tend to have stronger covenants.

So if there are any hold-outs, their best hope will be that they’re in a tiny minority, and Ecuador just does what it did last time, and pays them off in full because it’s easier and cheaper than fighting them in the courts. But the hold-outs would probably need to amount to less than 4% of the amount issued before Ecuador went down that route.

Will there be 96% takeup of this offer, including bonds Ecuador already owns? It’s possible, but I suspect that there will be enough too-high bids, in the 40-cent-and-over range, to stop that from happening. In which case Ecuador’s holdouts will find themselves in much the same position as Argentina’s. Which is to say, an unhappy position indeed.

Comments
7 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS
 

I am just wondering where Ecuador will be getting capital from, once it has shamelessly and unscrupulously abused all bondholders. It seems petty and silly.

Posted by von.herrs@gmail.com | Report as abusive
 

I agree with Von Herrs. If Correa wants to borrow again in the international markets, will he be able to ? Yes, but investors will charge him interest rates even higher than on the debt they just defaulted on. And why shouldn’t they? Is that usurious? If they have the option of loaning money to Ecuador or a proven more reliable creditor (Colombia for example) at similar interest rates, shouldn’t any rational investor choose the creditor that hasn’t shown a willingness to blithely default?

The main question is, how will this affect Ecuador’s future growth prospects? Correa may seem like a hero to the people now, but he is only leading the country to a longer future of poverty despite the country’s potential.

Posted by jdw | Report as abusive
 

Hello friends,
I think it’s time that the bondholders who didn’t accept the unlegal and shamfull offer of Correa come together to present the case at NY court.
I give you an email address where we can contact. But no fake please.
Go ahead. If the people from Reuters will help to coordinate, they are welcome.

Posted by oldboy | Report as abusive
 

I buy me bonds at more than 100% and I would like to litigte
How can I contact permalink?

Posted by daniel | Report as abusive
 

Sory my mail is danielfranciscomontero@hotmail.com
I olso would like to know what is going to do Correa know?

Posted by daniel | Report as abusive
 

Felix your note are very good
wright more please

Posted by daniel | Report as abusive
 

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