Comments on: Silly chart of the day, data-fitting edition http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/ A slice of lime in the soda Sat, 25 May 2013 00:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: woofer50 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-28550 woofer50 Thu, 14 Jul 2011 09:22:38 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/#comment-28550 The real ridiculousness of this chart is how the creator expects the coincidental graph markings (10 years apart and for different economies!) to accurately predict future trends. Why not then just go around and find equally matching charts and use them? Number of Twitter users in Brazil. Holiday sales figures for Krispy Kreme Donuts. Willie Nelson's popularity over the length of his career. Who knows? Maybe this guy is onto something! Daniel http://www.sudlows.com/ The real ridiculousness of this chart is how the creator expects the coincidental graph markings (10 years apart and for different economies!) to accurately predict future trends. Why not then just go around and find equally matching charts and use them? Number of Twitter users in Brazil. Holiday sales figures for Krispy Kreme Donuts. Willie Nelson’s popularity over the length of his career. Who knows? Maybe this guy is onto something!

Daniel
http://www.sudlows.com/

]]> By: Don http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-6125 Don Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:05:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/#comment-6125 I've found that Bloomberg has been doing that a lot lately -- taking some statistic and then extrapolating a market direction prediction. They've done it with crude oil implied volatility and VIX, basically saying that the high implied volatility meant an implosion. Only problem was, that they said this back in June, just BEFORE both markets went on a bull run. Stats are stats, and cycles are cycles, but they're not so infallible that you can make a prediction of a 40% gain. And for what it's worth, Bloomberg isn't alone. I’ve found that Bloomberg has been doing that a lot lately — taking some statistic and then extrapolating a market direction prediction. They’ve done it with crude oil implied volatility and VIX, basically saying that the high implied volatility meant an implosion. Only problem was, that they said this back in June, just BEFORE both markets went on a bull run. Stats are stats, and cycles are cycles, but they’re not so infallible that you can make a prediction of a 40% gain.

And for what it’s worth, Bloomberg isn’t alone.

]]> By: Craig http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-6099 Craig Mon, 31 Aug 2009 13:49:06 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/#comment-6099 "In other words, the people who came up with this chart are not saying that the US is going basically nowhere over the long term." Pity. All of my investing years have been in the red-hot bubbles of the last 15 years. I could really go for a 10-15 year bear market--long enough for the punters to get scared out of equities. I dribble a little money into NIKKEI index stocks--less than I should, probably--because a market that's had the stuffing beat out of it for years in a stable, advanced, industrialized country might just be one heck of a good buy if you let it run long enough. All those cute dancing robots Honda is working on? Just wait until they're doing our shopping and changing our bedpans in our old age. “In other words, the people who came up with this chart are not saying that the US is going basically nowhere over the long term.”

Pity. All of my investing years have been in the red-hot bubbles of the last 15 years. I could really go for a 10-15 year bear market–long enough for the punters to get scared out of equities.

I dribble a little money into NIKKEI index stocks–less than I should, probably–because a market that’s had the stuffing beat out of it for years in a stable, advanced, industrialized country might just be one heck of a good buy if you let it run long enough. All those cute dancing robots Honda is working on? Just wait until they’re doing our shopping and changing our bedpans in our old age.

]]> By: rjs http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-6092 rjs Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:57:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/#comment-6092 with enough finagling you can make any market chart mean anything you want it to mean or predict anything you want it to predict... with enough finagling you can make any market chart mean anything you want it to mean or predict anything you want it to predict…

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-6085 Bob_in_MA Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:37:26 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/29/silly-chart-of-the-day-data-fitting-edition/#comment-6085 Yeah, you see something like that, on a premier business news service, and you just have to wonder how the economy ever actually worked at all. I tell my wife stories about how boneheaded business writers and analysts can be and she doesn't believe me. Yeah, you see something like that, on a premier business news service, and you just have to wonder how the economy ever actually worked at all. I tell my wife stories about how boneheaded business writers and analysts can be and she doesn’t believe me.

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