This seems like a lot of work to find out which bloggers make reliably good predictions. In reality, none of them do.
When I visited Argentina in early 2003, the finance ministry gave me, as finance ministries worldwide are wont to do, a printed-out PowerPoint presentation of how wonderfully the economy was going. One slide did stand out, however — the one entitled “Social protest events during 2002″, showing how “crowd concentrations, mobilizations, blocking highways and downtown streets, partial and total strikes, takeover of establishments, and so on” (seriously, that’s what it said) had dropped from over 2,000 a month in the first four months of the year to a mere 847 in December.
Citigroup’s contract with energy trader Andrew Hall, which reportedly could pay him up to $100 million this year, will not be subject to rulings by the Obama administration’s pay czar, a source close to the bank said on Wednesday…
Portfolio.com is back! And I seem to have recovered my byline on my old blog entries there — although the blogs do seem to lack any useful navigation or even RSS feeds. When the RSS arrives, I’ll be sure to subscribe to Matt Haber’s blog — he’s a great hire. The best of luck to new editor Josh Moss — launching a new(ish) business title in the teeth of a nasty recession can’t be easy. But the fact that anybody’s launching anything at all is surely cause for some celebration.
Simon Johnson is quite right: it’s scandalous that Citi chairman Dick Parsons has only about $350,000 of stock in Citigroup — probably the value of a minor farm building abutting his Tuscan vineyard. That gives him every incentive to take outsize risks: his upside is huge, if they pay off, while his downside is barely noticeable for a man of his extreme wealth. It’s long past time for him to get his checkbook out and buy a serious chunk of Citi stock.
Are you confused by the WSJ article about the Federal Reserve and Extended Stay? If so, then this story, filed in June by Tom Hals of Reuters, might help give some much-needed background. Even then, though, this is a very complicated and messy bankruptcy, so I just phoned Tom to get things clearer still. Here’s how I understand the situation — with the caveat that, as I say, it’s very complicated and messy, and I’m not an expert on this by any means.
How to eradicate malaria (PDF)
Nate Silver, econometrician arguing why we won’t see 10% unemployment
CR nerds out on household survey vs payroll survey, and how that applies to the “mancession”