Opinion

Felix Salmon

Hertz caves

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 21:29 UTC

Good news on the corporate-bully front: Hertz, which was behaving abominably towards Audit Integrity, has utterly caved, dropping its libel suit on the grounds that it was “not worth pursuing now”. Or, one assumes, ever again. A small but important victory for freedom of speech in the financial markets.

Mutual fund charts of the day

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 21:15 UTC

Fama and French have a very long blog entry (over 5,000 words) about the latest version of their paper on mutual fund returns. As you might expect from research sponsored by an index-fund company, it shows that active mutual-fund managers fail to outperform the market. But at least it does so with pretty charts.

Here’s what happens when you compare actual before-fees returns from mutual-fund managers (the blue line) with what you’d expect if no managers had any skill at all, and the returns were simply distributed by chance (the red line).

luck_f2_updated.gif

On the left hand side of the chart, you see actual fund managers significantly underperforming what you’d expect by luck alone. On the right hand side, however, it seems that if you’re skilled at manager selection, there is a glimmer of hope that you might find a little bit of alpha. Not a lot, but something statistically significant.

Unfortunately, all that alpha — and then some — gets eaten away by fees. Here’s the chart for after-fees returns:

luck_f1_updated.gif

The red line, remember, is the distribution of returns you’d expect if all mutual-fund managers had an alpha of zero. The blue line is actual returns. Fama and French conclude:

For the vast majority of actively managed funds, true α is probably negative; that is, the fund managers do not have enough skill to produce risk adjusted expected returns that cover their costs.

Which comes as no surprise, but it’s still good to see some relatively solid empirics here. Anybody wanting to make an intellectually-credible case in favor of investing in actively-managed mutual funds is going to have to attack this paper head-on.

COMMENT

Try one little experiment. You always hear how the market returns 7% a year. Try to find a fund that has returned 7% a year for 40 years, a time commensurate with one’s probable working life. There are only a handful, and they are index funds. Think you can do better. Well, quit your job, play the market full time, subscribe to Bloomberg and every other information and evaluation service and see where you get. Odds are you’ll do no better than a full time fund manager. After all, that’s what you’ll be. Sure, you might do a lot better, but you also might do a lot worse. In that, it’s no different than playing the lottery, but good luck in getting that 7%.

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Why bonds aren’t good investments

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 20:03 UTC

If a home is not an investment, what about a Treasury bond? In my comments, Dan responds forcefully to Urban Legend, who was trying to make the case that low interest rates do a lot of harm to those poor millionaires looking to live on their risk-free interest payments alone:

If you think it is reasonable to get a 5% return on top of inflation without taking risk, I have some oceanfront property in Nevada to sell you. That may have been possible in the past, but we are in a new world now.

Investing is not about loaning your funds out to a government, completely abdicating responsibility for finding meaningful uses for the capital and then expecting a substantial return above inflation. Our governments are nearly bankrupt.

If you lend to a nearly bankrupt and profligate entity, you deserve to lose a lot of money. You are like a bartender serving a drunk who is drinking himself to death. You are not innocent. You are part of the problem, and your investments are making the world worse. You don’t deserve a good return for that.

How to invest? If you really want risk fee, go for TIPs, but don’t expect much beyond inflation. Better yet, learn basics of business and investing and carefully loan out to local small businesses. Or be a landlord, watching your profit and dividends every month. Or invest in important and useful companies via the stockmarket. Or invest in making your house energy efficient. Or invest in your childrens’ and grandchildrens’ educations. Or donate it for research to invest in everyone’s future.

Whine about the Fed if you want. Your treasury buys make all these games possible.

I just made a significant investment in Apple, but I didn’t touch the stock: instead, my house now sports two brand-new computers, and already the returns on those computers are proving higher than I’d anticipated. (Although if you’re in NYC and are willing to trade knowledge of Mac OS X Server for good food and wine, I think I have a deal for you.)

There are lots of ways to invest well, and most of them don’t involve buying securities which rise in value. I often feel that stock-picker types are missing the point, rather — especially nowadays, when the future of the capital markets has never been cloudier.

If you really want to play a game where the person with the best-performing stock portfolio wins, then fine. But other kinds of investing, like for instance Dan’s idea of providing much-needed funds for a small local business, can be more rewarding in other ways. The world of securitization and capital markets turns out not to have been nearly as good at capital allocation as most of us thought it was. So maybe we should go back to making our own real-world investment decisions, rather than trusting in the markets to get it right.

COMMENT

I think it’s fair to say I got a small egg and bailed out, Maynard. Sometimes I second-guess that, and sometimes I just go for a nice mountain bike ride.By the way, I returned to this comment stream because I saw this as related:“When I hear folks like New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini talk about asset bubbles and “money chasing commodities,” I want to ask, what money? Where is all the money chasing stocks, commodities, high-yield bonds and emerging- market stocks coming from if it’s sitting in banks’ accounts at Federal Reserve banks?Paul Kasriel, chief economist at the Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago, thinks he has the answer: portfolio shifts.“Investors, rather than borrowing dollars, are selling U.S. Treasury securities they own, ultimately to capital- concerned/constrained banks, and are then investing the proceeds in higher-yielding foreign government securities,” not to mention lesser-quality stocks and bonds, Kasriel writes in his Nov. 13 Economic and Interest Rate Outlook.”It’s from Commentary by Caroline Baum, Dec 1, 2009

Treasury-captured-by-banks datapoint of the day

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 19:07 UTC

Ryan Grim gets a great quote out of Treasury today, trying to explain why they’re pushing to allow banks to open branches in any state they like, despite the opposition of small banks, individual states, and Barney Frank:

“This eliminates a difference between thrifts and banks. While banks are subject to these limits, thrifts are not,” said Treasury spokeswoman Meg Reilly. “Although we are proposing to eliminate the thrift charter, this is an important step towards increased competition in banking and will reduce costs for consumers.”

One might think that eliminating the thrift charter would probably in and of itself do all that needs to be done in terms of eliminating the difference between thrifts and banks. But obviously not at Treasury. Instead, they seem to believe that allowing big banks in where they have previously been disallowed “will reduce costs for consumers”.

But big banks — and big thrifts — have been expanding across state lines for many years now. Is there any empirical evidence whatsoever that when that happens, costs for consumers go down? ‘Cos looking at the amount of money that banks are making in fee income, I’d doubt it.

COMMENT

I look at it the other way. Why on earth would banks NOT be able to open branches in any State? Utterly illogical, it’s one country ‘innit? I don’t see what costs have to do with it. Does anyone really think that in, say the UK, banks in Cornwall should not be allowed to open branches in Sussex just because some bureaucrat says so? There are more cozy cartels and less competition where states and antiquated guilds restrict competition. Take real estate (broker licensing), insurance, and yes, banking.

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The housing speculators return

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 17:59 UTC

It seems the housing speculators are back, and Daniel Indiviglio is joining their ranks, now that mortgage rates are back at record lows. “If you’re in the market for a home as a long-term investment, say at least 10-15 years, it’s pretty hard to make an argument against buying now,” he says.

It’s hard to know what to make of this. Some people are looking to buy a home — that’s understandable, given that everybody needs shelter. And some people are looking to invest money with a long-term time horizon. And some people even fall into both categories at once. But that’s no reason to desperately try to conflate the two, and to describe yourself as being “in the market for a home as a long-term investment”.

It bears repeating: homes aren’t investments, they’re places to live. If you can buy a nice house for less than you’d otherwise pay in rent, then go ahead and buy — no matter what the market looks like, or where mortgage rates are. On the other hand, if you’re looking for an “investment”, stick to securities. You can sell those much more easily when you need some money, and they won’t drive you into possible bankruptcy and homelessness if they go down rather than up.

In any event, low mortgage rates are if anything a reason not to buy: after all, the best way to make a lot of money in the housing market is generally to buy when rates are high and sell when rates are low. If rates rise from here that will keep a lid on prices, and if they fall then there’s no particular reason to buy now.

Some people have a strong emotional need to buy a house, and those people will always be able to find themselves some kind of good reason why they should Buy Now. But if you’re genuinely on the fence about whether to buy or not, then looking at mortgage rates isn’t going to be nearly as useful as looking at local rental rates, and their possible future course. Right now is one of those rare times when prevailing rents might actually fall rather than rise — in which case the rent vs buy calculator is likely to tip even further into “rent” territory. If it signals a “buy”, and you have the money to purchase a house, that’s great. Just make sure you’re happy with the house qua house, and you’re not kidding yourself that you’re making an “investment”.

COMMENT

Mike, I totally agree with you. Property taxes are a huge threat to the young due to extremely unfunded public pensions and the real possibility that the elderly will succeed passing the tab to the young (as they did in California and Florida).So without a really long tax abatement or a house that’s so cheap it compensates me for this risk… sorry guys, i’ll continue to be a happy renter!I also like the fact that we remain totally mobile (we would love to live some years abroad if a good opportunity comes knocking) and keep our housing costs to the minimum. As almost everybody else, if we ever buy, we would go for a much bigger home than what we are renting. Which is a want, not a need. The savings coming from consuming little in housing go towards college for the kids and for our retirement. The house is small but the locating is optimal so we walk to work and come back home for lunch. what else can i ask! i hate wasting time commuting.It’s a much more conservative strategy we set up since 2004 that has worked wonders for us. Also helped the fact that we’ve bought puts on homebuilders as the bubble was finally coming to it’s climax. That was so much fun to see happening!!! Imagine that for years friends and family were shocked at living arrangements. Now… they ask for financial advice :-) So it’s not true that this crash made everybody miserable. It made us so happy being young!

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Quotes of the day: Buiter on Citi

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 15:42 UTC

Back in April, Willem Buiter called Citigroup “a conglomeration of worst-practice from across the financial spectrum”; he followed up in June with a blog post entitled “Too big to fail is too big“, in which he likened Citi’s former chairman and CEO, Win Bischoff, to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Which maybe explains why there’s no quote from Buiter himself in the press release announcing his arrival at Citigroup. Maybe they just thought it would be better to have him inside the tent pissing out.

COMMENT

this is nice
my blog for wallpaper
http://freewallpaper2010.blogspot.com/

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Citi hires Buiter

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 14:35 UTC

Willem Buiter is joining Citigroup as its chief economist. It’s an important role — so important, in fact, that Buiter should be able to demand that he be allowed to continue to write his rather fabulous blog, either in its current location at the FT or else somewhere on citigroup.com. A widely-read and widely-respected blog is a useful tool for any economist to have, and Citi should be encouraging Buiter to keep his.

COMMENT

Someone did warn him that U.S. bankruptcy law allows look-backs at all contracts enacted in the previous six months, didn’t they?

The systemically-important 30

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 14:29 UTC

The FT has the list of 30 international financial institutions which the international Financial Stability Board considers systemically important.

The first thing to jump out from the list is that just 5 of the 30 companies are American, and none of the six insurers: the likes of Mizuho, Intesa and Aviva are considered systemically important, while, say, Wells Fargo isn’t. (It’s not clear what the status of AIG is. Maybe it can’t be too big to fail if it’s already failed.)

The second thing of note is that there’s not much in the way of BRICs here, or even emerging-market institutions in general. Two of the four UK groups — Standard Chartered and HSBC — are about as close as it comes; there’s no Chinese bank on the list at all. Never mind all the chatter over Dubai: emerging markets are still very much the victims of financial meltdown, rather than the cause of it.

Finally, why is it only European insurers who make the cut? Two of them are Swiss; the others (Axa, Aegon, Allianz, and Aviva) are generally considered French, Dutch, German, and English respectively. What’s Berkshire Hathaway, chopped liver?

COMMENT

“They do more stress testing of longer term scenarios, rather than what the quants did with mainly short-term VAR.”Well, they do on the insurance side of things. But insurers performed just as badly as the banks, if not worse, with their investments.

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The world’s largest guilt trip

Felix Salmon
Nov 30, 2009 01:27 UTC

Brent White shows that underwater homeowners across America are signally failing to take my advice (or that of Mark Gimein) and walk away from their homes:

Only about one-fourth of homeowner defaults are strategic, with the other three-fourths triggered by job losses, divorce or other financial difficulties, which when combined with negative equity give homeowners no option but to let go of their homes. In other words, for the vast majority of homeowners, negative equity is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for default… Though more than 32% of U.S. homeowners were underwater on their mortgages by the end of the second quarter of 2009, the strategic default rate was roughly 3%.

Not all property owners behave like this, of course, and the best example right now of an underwater property owner walking away from his obligations is that of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum. As Willem Buiter explains,

The shareholder (the al-Maktoum family aka the government of Dubai) will decide on ordinary commercial principles whether to provide additional financial support to these companies.

If the shareholder of Dubai World and of Nakheel believes that a further capital injection makes commercial sense, it will inject additional capital (assuming it can find the financial resources to do so). If, as I suspect is the case with Nakheel, the company is so deep under water that injecting additional shareholder capital would be throwing good money after bad, the company will not be financially supported by the shareholder. That’s how financial capitalism works.

Except, of course, that’s not how financial capitalism works in the US. Here’s White:

Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza, and Luigi Zingales found that 81% of homeowners believe that it is immoral to default on a mortgage, and that homeowners who hold this attitude are 77% less likely to declare their intention to default than those who do not. Indeed, once the equity shortfall exceeds 10% of a home’s value, the study found that “moral and social considerations” are the “most important variables predicting strategic default.” So strong are these variables, in fact, that only 17% of homeowners indicted that they would default if the equity shortfall reached 50%…

Moreover, foreclosure rates are considerably lower than would be suggested by the Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales study, as the percentage of people who actually default is much lower than the percentage that indicated they would default in the survey, moral qualms or not.

White goes on to enumerate an astonishingly long list of institutions, up to and including the president himself, which are speaking with a single voice on this question, and saying that paying an underwater mortgage in full is the morally correct thing to do. Hank Paulson did it, despite the fact that he would have fired anyone at Goldman who behaved similarly; Neil Cavuto likened people who walk away from their mortgages to people who would have “quit” and handed over Europe to the Nazis.

Even Gail Cunningham, of the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, declared in an interview on NPR that “Walking away from one’s home should be the absolute last resort. However desperate a situation might become for a homeowner, that does not relieve us of our responsibilities.” If you’re thinking of walking away, you’ll almost certainly do so while overcoming enormous feelings of guilt. And where there’s guilt, there’s belief in dire consequences:

Most people simply do not believe they will escape punishment for their moral transgressions. Guilt and fear of punishment go together. Thus, the notion that one will suffer great consequences for walking away from one’s financial obligations not only seems possible, but feels quite right. It just can’t be that one can walk away from their mortgage with no significant consequence. As such, people rarely question apocalyptic descriptions of foreclosure’s consequences.

The result is a system tilted enormously in favor of institutional lenders who exist in a world of morality-free contracts, and who conspire to lay the world’s largest-ever guilt trip on any borrower who might think about joining them in that world. It’s asymmetrical, it’s unfair, and it’s about time that homeowners started being informed that a ding to their credit score is not the end of the world; that no one would expect a capitalist company to behave in the way that individuals are being told to behave; and that their options are in fact broader than they might believe. White’s paper is the perfect place for them to start their reading.

(HT: Kedrosky)

COMMENT

Wow hard to believe, how could you sleep at night with this over your head.

http://blogs.reuters.com/africanews/2009  /09/02/was-it-right-to-grant-refugee-st atus-to-white-south-african

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